QUICK NEWS, 3-16: CLIMATE CHANGE IGNORANCE, DOUBT GROWS; WILL EPA DO ITS OWN CAP&TRADE?; WHY LA UPPED ITS POWER RATE; SHALE GALE

CLIMATE CHANGE IGNORANCE, DOUBT GROWS
Americans' Global Warming Concerns Continue to Drop; Multiple indicators show less concern, more feelings that global warming is exaggerated
Frank Newport, March 11, 2010 (Gallup)

"Gallup's annual update on Americans' attitudes toward the environment shows a public that over the last two years has become less worried about the threat of global warming, less convinced that its effects are already happening, and more likely to believe that scientists themselves are uncertain about its occurrence. In response to one key question, 48% of Americans now believe that the seriousness of global warming is generally exaggerated, up from 41% in 2009 and 31% in 1997, when Gallup first asked the question.

"…[C]onducted March 4-7…survey results show that the reversal in Americans' concerns about global warming that began last year has continued in 2010…[T]he percentage of Americans who now say reports of global warming are generally exaggerated is by a significant margin the highest such reading in the 13-year history of asking the question. In 1997, 31% said global warming's effects had been exaggerated; last year, 41% said the same, and this year the number is 48%…"

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"Many global warming activists have used film and photos of melting ice caps and glaciers, and the expanding reach of deserts, to drive home their point that global warming is already having alarming effects on the earth. While these efforts may have borne fruit over much of the 2000s, during the last two years, Americans' convictions about global warming's effects have waned.

"A majority of Americans still agree that global warming is real, as 53% say the effects of the problem have already begun or will do so in a few years. That percentage is dwindling, however. The average American is now less convinced than at any time since 1997 that global warming's effects have already begun or will begin shortly…35% say that the effects of global warming either will never happen (19%) or will not happen in their lifetimes (16%)…The 19% figure is more than double the number who held this view in 1997…"

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"…[T]he percentage of Americans who believe that global warming is going to affect them or their way of life in their lifetimes has dropped to 32%…Two-thirds of Americans say global warming will not affect them in their lifetimes…The shift in these views during the past two years has been particularly striking…In a sharp turnaround from what Gallup found as recently as three years ago, Americans are now almost evenly split in their views of the cause of increases in the Earth's temperature…

"The last two years have marked a general reversal in the trend of Americans' attitudes about global warming…[T]he public opinion tide turned in 2009…This year, the downturn is even more pronounced…[This may in part be due to] the publicity surrounding allegations of scientific fraud relating to global warming evidence, and -- perhaps in some parts of the country -- a reflection of the record-breaking snow and cold temperatures… [And] global warming [is] becoming heavily partisan…[It] may be that the continuing doubts about global warming put forth by conservatives and others are having an effect…"


WILL EPA DO ITS OWN CAP&TRADE?
EPA Studying Own Carbon-Trading System, Official Says
Simon Lomax (w/Richard Stubbe and Charlotte Porter), March 15, 2010 (Bloomberg News via BusinessWeek)

"The Obama administration is considering a carbon-trading system under existing law if Congress doesn’t pass cap-and-trade legislation that allows companies to buy and sell the right to pollute…

"The existing Clean Air Act [might put a Cap&Trade system] within agency regulations aimed at reducing carbon dioxide and other gases that scientists have linked to climate change, Anna Marie Wood, a senior policy analyst at the EPA, said…"

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"…[EPA] strongly prefers…[however, that] Congress pass new laws dealing with greenhouse gases…[though the Agency believes the Clean Air Act gives it effective tools]…"

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"EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson said last week the agency has no plans to independently set up a cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gases. Jackson said she believed Congress will establish a national program. Cap-and-trade legislation that narrowly passed the House last year is stalled in the Senate.

"Emissions trading for greenhouse gases might be set up under part of the Clean Air Act that lets the agency set “new source performance standards” for large polluters such as power plants, oil refineries and cement plants, Wood said."


WHY LA UPPED ITS POWER RATE
Carbon Reduction Surcharge
March 15, 2010 (City of Los Angeles)

"Mayor Villaraigosa is directing the Board of Water and Power Commissioners to create a Carbon Reduction Surcharge and a related Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Trust Fund… This action is an unprecedented step towards creating thousands of green-collar jobs and turning Los Angeles into the greenest big city in America…

"…Rates will go up 2.7¢ per kWh [beginning April 1, 2010, and implemented gradually to January 2011]. Of that increase, 0.7¢ per kWh will go to a dedicated fund for renewables and energy efficiency. Most ratepayers…[will have] a $2.50 - $3.50 increase on their monthly bills. Customers who use more energy…will pay proportionally more…[S]mall businesses…[will have] a monthly increase of approximately $54.00, or 20%."

The biggest part of the rate increase will go to pay for volatile fuel costs. (click to enlarge)

"…[T]he objective of this initiative is not to charge more, it is to use less. So we are dedicating 100% of the Carbon Reduction Surcharge to renewable energy and energy efficiency…To mitigate the impact of the increase, LA residents will have access to the Green Doctor program, where the DWP will conduct house-calls for energy audits and offer free energy efficiency improvements, and other energy efficiency programs. And small businesses will qualify for up to $2500 in free energy-efficiency lighting upgrades – which could lower your energy costs by up to 25%…

"Even more importantly, the DWP will institute a Solar Power Feed-in Tariff program (FiT), to allow users to sell solar power back to the DWP. The FiT program will not only enable users to drastically cut their rates, but it will incentivize the installation of solar panels, creating good, green-collar local jobs…A solar feed-in tariff allows the owner of an in-basin solar facility…to sell electricity directly to the LADWP at a guaranteed price for a set period of time…[B]oth businesses and residents can dramatically reduce or even eliminate your power bills. In some cases, businesses can even use the Feed-in Tariff to turn a profit…"

The Mayor is counting on the fact that LA is willing to pay for New Energy and Energy Efficiency to get the rate increase through. Will the City Council go along? (click to enlarge)

"…[T]he $168 million that the DWP will be investing in renewable energy sources will create 1,826 jobs per year. That translates into 18,260 jobs over 10 years…According to a Berkeley study, approximately 13 installation jobs and 20 manufacturing jobs are created for every megawatt of solar energy installed. And the DWP will be incentivizing the use of local manufacturing to make sure those jobs go to Los Angelenos.

"…Under California's Cap and Trade law (AB 32), unless we take action to cut our dependence on fossile fuels, we will end up paying huge fines to Sacramento, with no local benefit. These fines could total up to $300 million in 2011-2012, and more than $600 milliion the next year…Or we can make these investments now and go green on our own terms, in a way that will maximize local jobs…[and] ensure collective benefit for the long term."


SHALE GALE
IHS CERA: Shale Gas can be a “Game Changer” for North America’s Energy Future; Provides potential for near-term CO2 cuts, but presents long-term challenges, study says
March 10, 2010 (IHS-CERA)

"The “shale gale” sweeping across North America the past few years has more than doubled the size of the discovered natural gas resource in North America—enough to satisfy more than 100 years of consumption at current rates…

…"Fueling North America’s Energy Future: The Unconventional Natural Gas Revolution and the Carbon Agenda, says that the shale gale, the recent expansion of natural gas resources, provides the potential to transform North America’s energy landscape…[It also] says that the emergence of shale gas has the potential to be a “game changer,” dramatically augmenting natural gas supply and opening new opportunities for competition among different energy sources…"

The Marcellus shale is the game-changer - and it also brought nat gas drilling to the public's attention. (click to enlarge)

"Growth in power demand over the coming two decades will likely lead natural gas demand for power generation to nearly double by 2030 from its current level of 19 billion cubic feet per day. Substitution of coal-fired generation with natural gas-fired power generation will result in short term greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions (a natural gas-fired plant has half the carbon emissions of coal-fired plants), but there is a limited pool of “spare” gas- fired capacity which prevents wholesale fuel switching…

"Simply replacing coal-fired generation with natural gas-fired units will not, however, allow the often discussed target of 80 percent reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 to be met. This will require the deployment of non-carbon emitting technologies including nuclear and renewable power as well as significant advances in carbon capture and storage (CCS)…"

Is the CERA report accurate about nat gas drilling being adequately regulated? (click to enlarge)

"However, water—both its use in hydraulic fracturing and the disposal and treatment of produced water—has emerged as the top environmental issue, particularly as the center of gravity of development moves from the traditional oil and gas producing areas to the more densely populated U.S. Northeast. While additional federal regulation is now being debated, the study points out that oil and gas drilling operations are tightly regulated or managed by states.

"The stringency of any future carbon reduction legislation and the viability of CCS technology, which has yet to be demonstrated at scale, are two major uncertainties facing natural gas’ future place in the generation fuel mix, the report concludes."