QUICK NEWS, 3-18: BRIGHT U.S. SUN MARKET; OCEAN ENERGY WINNERS; GETTING READY FOR THE EV; U.S. OIL V. INDIA CAR FOR INDONESIA GEOTHERMAL

BRIGHT U.S. SUN MARKET
Oerlikon Solar Sees US “Poised” to Become Largest Market in World by 2012
Dr. Chris Constantine, March 16, 2010 (Oerlikon Solar)

"…[The U.S. looks likely to become the] number one solar market in the world by 2012…[T]he fastest growing PV segment will be the distributed generation utility segment (under 20MW) with new utility project models, growing financing support, and growing public policy support to help accelerate growth. Total US demand could reach as high as 4GW in 2012, dramatically up from the 2009 level of less than 700MW.

"Key short term growth drivers include the Investment Tax Credit grants that provide a 30% refund (not tax credit) through 2010, the DOE energy loan guarantee program, expanded utility financing, and accelerated depreciation schedules The clearly optimistic 4GW upside scenario assumes continuation and expansion of state-level incentives, national Renewal Portfolio Standards (RPS) and accelerated investment recovery. In California, which comprises 60% of the U.S. grid-connected solar PV market…drivers include the California Solar Initiative for systems less than 1MW in size, an increase in the RPS to 33%, expanded state FIT programs, and provisions that allow utility ownership and accelerated depreciation for solar…16 [states have RPSs] with explicit targets or “multipliers“for solar and small-scale distributed renewables. Several states are considering additional RPS increases and FIT legislation."

From solar industry expert Paula Mints (click to enlarge)

"Another important factor is that more states are adopting “time of use” electric rates for commercial customers which will result in utilities seeing higher value in procurement of PV electricity during high peak times. Utilities may also enter the commercial PV rooftop business, with new projects by Southern California Edison and others offering a glimpse into future business models. Other key drivers include the growth innovative financing such as PV system leases, PPA agreements for homeowners, and municipal financing (loans repaid through property tax).

"Grid parity will be the mid-term driver of solar demand in the US as the cost of solar energy-generated electricity from residential photovoltaic (PV) panels becomes equivalent with the cost of electricity purchased from the grid in many areas of the country. Constantine showed National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) data that show break-even conditions will exist for 67% of US residential electricity sales in 2015, given reasonable assumptions about the rising cost of fossil fuels, continued investment tax credits, and other factors. Increasingly, as power producers, financial institutions, installers, regulators, and other participants recognize that grid parity is on the horizon, market adoption of solar will rapidly accelerate…"

From solar industry expert Paula Mints (click to enlarge)

"…[T]he fastest growth [will be in the utility] sector, primarily those in states with strong RPS initiatives and high electricity rates. This segment opportunity will increase as solar PPA prices converge with wind and Natural Gas Turbine plants. The continued opposition to new transmission lines may impact Concentrated Solar projects more than PV. In fact, a market “sweet spot” for projects less than 20MW co-located with electric substations (no new transmission lines) are forming that will accelerate utility adoption. Utilities can also be expected to develop new solar business models, including more utility Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) contracts with private developers, utility-owned PV projects with in-house or outsourced EPC contracts.

"The California utility market is quickly developing…[and] there are 1.2GW in contracts for solar PV. The current California interconnection queue already exceeds 8.4GW. The fastest growing portion of this market will occur in DG projects less than 20MW. Black and Veatch estimates there are 27GW of potential in California in this size range alone…"


OCEAN ENERGY WINNERS
Scottish Power, Pelamis Win Marine Energy Contracts
Rodney Jefferson and Alex Morales (w/Reed Landberg and Randall Hackley), March 16, 2010 (Bloomberg News via BusinessWeek)

"Iberdrola SA’s Scottish Power unit and Pelamis Wave Power Ltd. won some of the 10 contracts awarded…by the U.K. government that aim to generate electricity from changes in the tides.

"The Crown Estate, the state-controlled manager of British property, agreed to six wave and four tidal projects in the Pentland Firth and Orkney waters in northeast Scotland…The contracts may generate enough power for 700,000 homes and lead to investments of as much as 4 billion pounds ($6 billion) within a decade. Perth, Scotland-based Scottish & Southern Energy Plc, E.ON AG of Germany and a venture involving France’s EDF SA and Siemens AG also won contracts…"

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"Additional investments will be needed to develop harbors and to connect to the national grid. Initial challenges include gaining planning consent from local councils…

"Marine energy has the potential to power 15 million homes by 2050, cutting as much as 70 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, the [UK] Department of Energy and Climate Change said…The industry may create as many as 16,000 jobs by the 2040s…"

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"Energy and Climate-Change Minister David Kidney said…wave and tidal energy may provide 2,000 megawatts of power to the U.K. by 2020, enough for about 1.4 million homes. The Scottish projects… range from 50 megawatts to 200 megawatts for a total of 1,200 megawatts.

"The technologies are still largely at a demonstration stage, and the industry is dominated by private start-ups. Even so, companies such as Germany’s Siemens and Vattenfall AB of Sweden are moving into the area as it grows."


GETTING READY FOR THE EV
Electric Vehicles Charge Ahead in US; Construction to begin on thousands of charging stations for 'clean' cars
Tom Banse, 17 March 2010 (Voice of America)

"What's billed as the biggest rollout of electric vehicle infrastructure in the world is about to begin in the United States.

"Urban planners are deciding where to locate more than 11,000 charging stations in 11 major cities. They want those stations up and running when the first mass-market electric cars from Nissan and General Motors go on sale at the end of this year…Last year, the Department of Energy awarded $100 million to eTec, an electric transportation research and development firm, to build electric vehicle charging networks in five states. Now is when the rubber meets the road, or more precisely, construction begins…"

Click thru to sign up for eTec’s EV project

"…[eTec is installing] more than 2,000 electric car chargers in the greater Seattle area in western Washington, and another 2,000 at homes and public places in four Oregon cities. They'll be near shopping centers, fast food restaurants and movie theaters…[eTec] has partnered with Nissan…[and] wants 900 drivers in each state to let researchers from the Idaho National Lab monitor their driving and charging behaviors…Lessons learned about consumer preferences on placement, features and payment options could guide the eventual national rollout of charging infrastructure.

"The Nissan Leaf and the plug-in Chevy Volt are supposed to hit U.S. dealerships late this year. They're the first wave of mass production electric cars…[N]ew owners will have no trouble finding a power station…Nissan will sell and lease the car and battery as a package…"

Click thru to Plug-in America to track the progress of all plug-in vehicles

"Other companies and countries are trying different business models to lure consumers into electric cars. Denmark is one nation on the cutting edge. A California-based company called Better Place is working with Denmark's biggest utility to build the charging network there. It will offer battery swap-out stations, a feature not included initially in the United States…When the system starts up next year, Danish electric vehicle drivers will pay a monthly subscription to access the battery charging network. They could also pay by the mile.

"But will consumers go for any of this? Vehicle researcher Valerie Karplus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology says the car market is big enough to support numerous niches…Many policymakers, as well as drivers, find the prospect of a zero-emissions ride electrifying."


U.S. OIL V. INDIA CAR FOR INDONESIA GEOTHERM
Tata, Chevron bid for Indonesian geothermal project
Muklis Ali (w/Sara Webb), March 17, 2010 (Reuters)

"India's Tata Power Co Ltd and Chevron Corp's Indonesian unit are among several firms which have submitted bids for a geothermal power project in Indonesia…Indonesia's PT Medco Energi Internasional, [as] part of a consortium with Ormat Technologies, and several other local firms made separate bids for the project.

"Tata, India's largest private-sector utility, is part of a consortium with Indonesian firm PT Supraco Energy."

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"The bids are to build a geothermal power plant in Sorik Merapi, North Sumatra, with initial capacity of 55 megawatts (MW) gradually increasing to 200 MW…

"Indonesia has launched the first phase of the programme to add 10,000 MW of generating capacity from 35 new coal-fired power plants, which are mostly still under construction…The government is still finalising the second phase of the crash programme to add another 10,000 MW using coal, geothermal and renewable energy resources."

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"Indonesia, with hundreds of active and extinct volcanoes, has the potential to produce an estimated 27,000 MW of electricity from geothermal sources.

"However, that potential remains largely untapped because the high cost of geothermal energy makes the price of electricity generated this way expensive."