THE REAL POLITICAL PROBLEM (COAL)

Obama's energy challenge is coal, not oil; 45 percent of the nation's electricity is generated by coal-fired power plants
Howard Fineman, April 1, 2010 (MSNBC)

"President Barack Obama touched off a new environmental skirmish with his decision to open vast new areas of the American coastline to offshore oil drilling. But as loud as that battle is going to get, it is nothing compared with the real energy war to come…the Coal War.

"…[T]he real fight…this year in Congress will be how to deal with our nagging reliance on [coal] …[Despite] offshore drilling, wind power, natural gas, and energy conservation…the short-term drift of history still dictates a heavy reliance on the dirtiest and deadliest of all fuels…The big question in the energy bill — if there is one — is how and whether Congress will ask the American people to pay for the cost of controlling [coal’s] environmental consequences…[T]he president’s energy vision calls for switching our transportation system from oil to plug-in electricity. But 45 percent of all electricity in the country is still generated by coal-fired power plants…[and coal is] an abundant but even more environmentally troublesome [energy source]."

Leslie Glustrom's recent study of economically recoverable coal suggests it is neither as abundant or cheap as Fineman says. Add the cost of meeting higher emissions costs or controls and it may not long be economically useful. Do not, of course, expect a Congress beholding to the coal industry to behave accordingly. (click to enlarge)

"An energy bill that, among other things, would tax pollution caused by burning fossil fuels was passed by the House last year. It’s gotten nowhere in the Senate. Obama’s drilling announcement was designed to get the Senate’s attention — and garner some Republican support…But opening up offshore drilling prospects is politically, the easy part…The hard part is going to be convincing senators from coal-producing and/or electricity-exporting states to go along with any sort of carbon tax.

"States with power plants that generate electricity from coal read like a roster of presidential swing states. Among them: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Missouri and North Carolina. And other states with major coal commitments include: Georgia, Arizona, Kentucky and Wyoming…Getting 60 votes for some kind of carbon-pollution tax, even if it’s in the most attenuated ‘cap and trade’ form, will be next to impossible."

click to enlarge

"The political problem with coal is more than geography, it is supply: we just have so much…a quarter of the world’s reserves and…90 percent of all our fossil fuel reserves…We are finding vast new deposits of natural gas — the Marcellus Shale of the Northeast could be a bonanza — but for better or worse, we know, and always have known, coal…

"…There is some evidence that the “decarbonizing” process has begun…[W]ind power is on the rise…In 2008, [8,300 megawatts of the 19,000 megawatts of new generating capacity] utilities put on line…were from wind and only 1,600 from coal…[and] much of the rest was from natural gas….Over the next few years, utilities are planning to put 27,000 megawatts of capacity on line, only 5,000 of which is coal — and 11,000 of which is windpower…But that is not a big or fast enough change…Obama’s offshore speech made news, and justifiably so. But I’m waiting for the big coal speech. That’s the one that will really matter."