EU WIND'S ADMIRABLE INITIATIVE

Wind Energy: Action Plan for the new European Commission and Parliament
and
The European Wind Initiative; Wind power research and development of the next ten years
June 2010 (European Wind Energy Association)

THE POINT
There are two worlds of wind. The one inhabited by the manufacturers and developers of Europe and Asia is abuzz with growth and planning. The one inhabited by U.S. manufacturers and developers is planning and floundering.

As pointed out in As Wind Soars, Will U.S. Fall Behind?, the difference is in the policies.

The Chinese central leadership has established clear and ambitious national New Energy goals. Smbitious entrepreneurs in the command and control economy have responded aggressively, achieving a pace of growth never seen before in the New Energy economy.

Free-marketeers in the U.S. have fought to keep the New Energies largely unsupported by strong, consistent long-term policies and goals at the federal level. As a result, the New Energy industries have suffered boom and bust as production and investment tax credits and their usefulness have waxed and waned.

Europe, meanwhile, has pioneered a third way. That their makers and doers are part of the first, thriving world of New Energy is a tribute as much to innovative policy as it is to aggressive entrepreneurship. EU policy - and what European Union policymakers are looking at going forward - is therefore worth taking note of.

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The first thing EU policymakers are looking at is economic trouble. The burden Greek travials have imposed on their more financially stable compatriots has been front-page fodder. The potential of such challenges spreading to the other members of the EU PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) is widely feared.

The next thing European leaders are looking at is a rising need for new sources of power generation. It is estimated that new demand and old capacity will produce a need for 360 gigawatts of new electricity generating capacity by 2020. That’s half of all the generation the EU is now capable of.

Two more powerful forces are driving EU thinking: (1) The urgency of developing an alternative to dependence on Russian and Middle East natural gas and (2) the dark foreboding of global climate change.

EU planners see one opportunity in all these challenges: Wind. It provided 60,000 new direct jobs between 2002 and 2007. It earned Europe 60% of the €36 billion world turbine market in 2008. Growth was equally big in 2009. Wind was the biggest source of new generation in Europe in 2008 and 2009.

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The EU’s Renewable Energy Directive, passed in 2009 and nicknamed the “triple 20,” calls for member nations to get an average of 20% of their power from New Energy sources – as well as reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (GhGs) 20% and improve efficiency by 20% – by 2020. Prgressive elements are clamoring for 30% goals.

Because there is still great unused potential in Europe’s wind resources – especially offshore – political and wind industry leaders have now begun pushing for more ambitious and far-reaching policies. By putting the right policies in place, they believe, wind development will be able to provide enough domestically-generated electricity to meet 3 times Europe’s expected 2020 demand and 7 times its expected 2030 demand.

The European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) believes Europe can build 230 gigawatts of wind, over 15% of it offshore, by 2020. It is calling for a €6 billion R&D effort, half financed by the private sector, to (1) maintain technology leadership, (2) make onshore wind the most competitive energy source by 2020 and offshore the most competitive by 2030, and (3) generate 20% of Europe’s electricity from wind in 2020, 33% in 2030, and 50% in 2050.

EWEA believes 5 priorities will achieve these things: (1) New turbines and components, (2) offshore technology, (3) grid integration, (4) resource assessment and (5) spatial planning.

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THE DETAILS
EU wind created 60,000+ new direct jobs from 2002 to 2007, an average of 33 new jobs a day. European manufacturers had a 60% share of the €36 billion 2008 global wind turbine market. 36% of the EU’s new electricity generation capacity in 2008, more than any other type of power generation, was wind.

Worldwide, there were 38.3 gigawatts of new wind installed in 2009, bringing the world’s total installed capacity to 158.5 gigawatts.

New EWEA targets for 2020: 230 gigawatts of installed capacity, 40 gigawatts of it offshore, producing 14%-to-17% of EU electricity.

Europe’s newest action plan calls for growth based on 6 key research activities that will support achievment of the 3 goals (technology leadership, competitive onshore and offshore prices, and taking on increasing portions of the electricity supply) and emphasize the 5 priorities (New turbines and components, offshore technology, grid integration, resource assessment and spatial planning):
(1) Improved design and layout of wind installations,
(2) Increased turbine reliability, accessibility and efficiency, (3) optimized offshore turbine maintenance, assembly and installation,
(3) demonstrating a 10-to-20 megawatt offshore wind turbine prototype and the capability of more widespread offshore interconnection capability,
(4) newer, better grid management methods that allow higher levels of wind on the transmission system, and
(5) better spatial planning standards.

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The European Commission’s Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan) initiated continent-wide policy development in 2007 and is now aiming at a €71.5 billion budget, out of which €6 billion would go to wind.

For 2020, the SET-Plan provides policies to drive the achievement of the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive, passed in 2009 and nicknamed the “triple 20,” that calls for member nations to get an average of 20% of their power from New Energy sources, reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (GhGs) 20% and improve efficiency by 20% by 2020.

For 2050, the SET-Plan provides policies to drive the achievement of the EU’s target of cutting its greenhouse gas emissions (GhGs) 80%-to-95% below 1990 levels so as to limit the global average temperature rise to no more than 2°C.

These policies would be supported by the Strategic Research Agenda in the European Wind Energy Technology Platform (TPWind). In its Phase 1 for 2020, its policies would bring wind costs down and see the development of 230 gigawatts of installed capacity with 40 gigawatts from offshore development. This would be ~20% of EU electricity. In its Phase 2 for 2030, its policies would bring wind costs down to grid competitive levels and support 400 gigawatts of installed capacity. Half of the yearly development of 20 gigawatts would be offshore. This would provide a third of EU electricity and see Europe exporting wind-generated electricity. In its Phase 3 for 2030-to-2050, the primary source of wind would be offshore and repowering, exports would be “substantial” and Europe could get half its electricity from wind

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TPWind, a network and R&D forum of ~150 wind energy researchers and experts, is financed by the European Commission and coordinated by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA). It evolved out of the 2002 Barcelona European Council’s commitment to increased R&D and a 3-phase program. It led to the SET-Plan, the European Wind Initiative and the Wind Energy Roadmap (WER) Implementation Plan
for 2010 – 2012.

The European Wind Initiative (EWI) commits the industry to a high-tech roadmap to lower costs. It is designed to drive wind energy technology development with testing facilities and streamlined manufacturing processes.

EWI intends to create 250,000+ skilled jobs through meeting 3 goals: (1) maintain technology leadership, (2) make onshore wind the most competitive energy source by 2020 and offshore the most competitive by 2030, and (3) make wind 20% of Europe’s electricity in 2020, 33% in 2030, and 50% in 2050.

EWI’s 5 priorities: (1) New turbines and components, (2) offshore technology, (3) grid integration, (4) resource assessment and (5) spatial planning.

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The EWI research objectives: (1) Ease site assessment, (2) gather onshore and offshore wind data, (3) advance turbine manufacturing technology and specifically prove a 10-to-20 megawatt offshore turbine, (4) advance the offshore wind industry, (5) enable large-scale grid integration of onshore and offshore wind, and (6) design cost-effective spatial planning instruments.

The EWI published its Wind Energy Roadmap (WER) in the summer of 2009. The first WER Implementation will be in 2010-to-2012. There are 18 priority activities in 4 strategic technology areas.

The WER will require €600 million per year in public and private resources, a €6 billion total investment by 2020. 15%-to-24% will finance the 2010-to-2012 implementation, regardless of the effectiveness of the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP). 52% of of the 2010-to-2012 budget should come from the private sector, 31% from the EU, and 17% from Member States.

The EWI is specific about sources of funding. It also contains an extensive list of short, medium and long-term recommendations for the achievement of the goals. The recommendations stress the development of new electricity infrastructure and ‘smart grids.’

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Because the European Commission finds that a $20 increase in the oil price increases Europe’s yearly gas import bill $15 billion, the increase in oil’s price in the 1st decade of the 21st century from $20 to $80 has added $45 billion to the EU energy bill – to say nothing of the cost when oil went to $147 in June 2008. Because wind offsets natural gas use, this makes investment in wind a tremendous bargain. Wind avoided €5.4 billion in EU fuel costs and and €2.4 billion in EU CO2 costs in 2008.

Direct employment in the wind energy sector increased by 125%, an average of 33 new jobs every day, between 2002 and 2007. EWEA expects the wind sector to grow 450,000+ direct and indirect jobs by 2020. There were 160,000 direct and indirect wind jobs in 2008.

Wind can relieve the EU’s energy security of its current 54% of imported energy and its predicted 70% of imported energy in 2030. The reports also describe wind’s significant contribution to the EU’s efforts against climate change and to sustain and increase the EU’s economic competitiveness.

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QUOTES
- From the Action Plan: “Wind generation produces no greenhouse gas emissions and replaces traditional, polluting power sources. It emits no toxic pollutants such as mercury, nor any conventional air pollutants such as smog-forming nitrogen dioxide, and it prevents serious water pollution or depletion. Wind energy has the lowest lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of all the energy production technologies. A turbine reimburses the energy used and CO2 produced to build it in just three to six months.”

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- From the Action Plan: “Wind power can reduce the electricity price because it has a low marginal cost, and therefore pushes out more expensive power generating technologies on the electricity market. When the electricity price is lowered, this is beneficial to all power consumers, since the reduction in price applies to all electricity traded – not only to electricity generated by wind power. What is more, investing in wind in Europe means that money that would have gone to fuel-exporting nations is put to work at home, helping consolidate Europe’s leadership in the field of wind energy technology and pave the way for exports to third countries.”