A VISION OF SUN

Solar Vision Study
May 28, 2010 (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy)

THE POINT
When it comes to solar energy, we ain’t seen NOTHIN’ yet. The boys and girls in the labs at Cal Tech and MIT and Cal Berkeley and places like that, being especially bright boys and girls, glanced up at the sun (when they were let out of the labs for Spring Break), and said to themselves “hello sunshine and hello fortune.”

They have hugely improved the miracle of taking a slab of plate glass and turning it into electricity, getting efficiencies approaching 50% now from panels that have a lifespan 25 years or more. They have also concocted panel compositions that are a little less efficient and noticeably less expensive and malleable panels for all kinds of special circumstances. But such miraculous stuff still costs a lot and only pays off for the average consumer after 5-to-10 years.

Engineering financial solutions that make such a proposition manageable has turned out to be a gift from the lab rats to their lesser and more materialistic compatriots in the business schools. But the wizards of sunshine are hardly done with their wonderworking.

Coming generations of solar materials will be spray on, wearable and storable. They will be a lot like the mysterious world of the digital, too nanotechnological to visualize, too psuedo-photosynthetic to really understand and too cheap and easy to not use.

Meanwhile, here in the now, a draft of a forthcoming study obtained by NewEnergyNews shows that energy policy planners are preparing for the U.S. to obtain 10%-to-20% of its electricity from the four prominent solar energy technologies by 2030. That's up from today's ~0.5%. The Solar Vision Study, a draft of a forthcoming report from the Solar Energy Technologies Program in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), is a detailed assessment of that projected two-decade growth.

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The DOE/EERE Solar Vision foresees two possible scenarios: In one, U.S. electricity demand keeps growing and solar expands to meet 10% of it by 2030. In the other, the U.S. takes advantage of the enormous Energy Efficiency opportunities it has to control the growth of its electricity demand so that the amount of solar energy installed capacity it is able to build in the next 20 years can meet 20% of total demand.

Though the study doesn't specifically say so, this is vital to note: If it possible to achieve the 10% (and NewEnergyNews is convinced it is), it is certainly possible to achieve the 20% level because the Energy Efficiency advances needed in the 20% scenario are even more readily implementable than the solar advances. AND the benefits from the efficiency implementation will fund the cost of the bigger solar capability.

The two main solar technologies included in the study are (1) photovoltaic (PV) panels, and (2) concentrating solar power (CSP), both of which are used for electricity generation. PV is the familiar rooftop solar that converts sunlight into electricity. CSP is the solar power plant (SPP) technology that converts the sun's heat into electricity. The other two solar technologies briefly considered in the report are solar heating and cooling (SHC), which capture the sun’s heat to avoid electricity and fossil fuel consumption.

The first and most important conclusion of the study, which does not make predictions but carefully examines potential and feasibility and delineates technical, policy and infrastructure measures needed to achieve the 10% and 20% implementations, is that these things can readily be done. No breakthrough technology is needed. Growth only need continue as it has in the past decade.

Yet if anything is true about the solar energy world, it is that technological breakthroughs minor and profound just keep coming. And solar industry growth, which boomed in the 2005-to-2008 economic expansion and was even impressive last year despite the recession, just keeps on.

So just imagine what solar energy and those lab rats are really going to do.

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THE DETAILS
The Solar Vision Study is not a prediction but assesses the ways, barriers and implications of 10%-to-20% solar.

Key factors: (1) current and projected costs, (2) raw material and labor availability, (3) manufacturing scale-up, (4) grid integration, (5) siting and environmental issues, (6) financing, and (7) policy.

Key findings:
(1) Solar can provide 10%-to-20% of U.S. electricity by 2030 without breakthrough technology or growth greater than that it has already demonstrated it is capable of. Solar panels and plants will, however, need to be more efficient and cost less.

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Current trajectories put PV capital costs on track to fall 60% by 2030 and CSP costs on track to fall 35%. This means PV electricity would, as has long been expected, achieve grid parity – that is, cost the same as electricity from the grid – in the 2015-to-2020 period. Solar power plant (SPP) electricity would reach grid parity in the 2020-to-2030 period.

Challenges and solutions foreseen: (a) Constraints on tellurium and indium supplies could be met with increased efficiency and the use of alternative materials; (b) manufacturing scale-up capability could be enhanced with strategic planning.

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(2) New installed capacity for 10% in 2030: 136 gigawatts (GW) of PV and 43 GW of CSP, 13 GW per year of PV and 4 GW per year of CSP.

New installed capacity for 20% in 2030: 240 GW of PV and 63 GW of CSP, 23 GW per year of PV and 5 GW per year of CSP.

Though there would be more GW of PV than CSP, each would generate about half the target terawatt-hours per year because sun-saturated solar power plants (SPPs) using CSP and storage are more efficient.

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(3) The 10% solar scenario cuts U.S. greenhouse gas emissions (GhGs) 7% (equivalent to taking 30 million cars off the road) and the 20% scenario cuts them 28% (100 million cars off the road).

The gain in GhG cuts is greater at 20% because at 10% solar mostly replaces natural gas but at 20% much more coal is replaced both by solar and by Energy Efficiency implementations.

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(4) 10% solar can be done without new transmission or smart grid advances. 20% will require three times as much marginal new transmission because grid operations will involve significantly more ramping, load management, variable generation integration, etc. The 20% scenario will also require much smart technology to achieve the needed levels of Energy Efficiency.

(5) The land needed for either scenario is large. For 10%: 460,000 hectares for CSP SPPs. For 20%: 790,000 hectares. But that is only ~0.5% of the land used for crops in the U.S. and ~0.1% of total U.S. land. Land is not an obstacle in the Southwest, where most SPPs will be, if siting is handled well.

(6) Siting of SPPs that use CSP will be complex, costly, and time-consuming. Building rooftop PV requires dealing with complex and variable codes and permits, zoning ordinances, and restrictive covenants. The siting of the new transmission that will be needed to deliver power from the remote locations where the SPPs must be to the urban load centers where the power is needed will entail complexities and regulatory conundrums that will make the other two siting challenges seem like child’s play.

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(7) Growing constraints on water use will not impact PV, which only requires water for periodic panel washing. It will impose a significant change for SPPs. CSP plants that use wet-cooling consume almost as much water as coal and gas plants. SPPs must shift to dry-cooling and hybrid-cooling technologies that cut water use 40%–97%. This is an especially immediate and crucial consideration because most SPPs will be in the arid Southwest.

(8) The needed solar capacity will necessitate huge solar hardware manufacturing, supply chain manufacturing and new transmission building capacity. Investment in supply chain manufacturing will need to be $30 billion for 10% solar and $55 billion for 20% solar. Liquidity to finance those investments is expected to be available.

Investment in new transmission will need to be $7 billion for 10% solar and $18 billion for 20% solar. This financing will be problematic because transmission development has a slow return on investment.

Investment in new PV and CSP manufacturing will need to be $490 billion for 10% solar and $850 billion for 20% solar. Traditionally, this manufacturing infrastructure has been financed through investment tax credits with third-party tax equity deals. Such levels of tax equity are not presently expected to be available.

The study suggests the need for new financing mechanisms for transmission and generating infrastructure expansion. This will give the business school crowd an opportunity to get in the game.

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(9) 10% solar is expected to increase the retail power price less than 0.1 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2030. That is a ~1% utility bill increase of ~70 cents per month per household in 2030.

20% solar is expected to increase the retail power price ~0.9 cents per kilowatt-hour, a ~10% utility bill increase of ~$6.80 per month per household in 2030.

(10) U.S. direct and indirect PV jobs are expected to grow from ~13,000 in 2009 to 180,000 in 2030 with 10% solar. They grow to 310,000 in 2030 with 20% solar.

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U.S. direct and indirect CSP jobs are expected to grow from ~1,000 in 2009 to 80,000 in 2030 with 10% solar and 100,000 in 2030 with 20% solar.

Trained personnel are expected to be available because PV and CSP component manufacturing skills can be transferred from failing blue collar industries. Power plant development can utilize the skilled engineering and construction labor force now building conventional power plants. A new workforce must be trained and certified to do PV rooftop installations but can come from the construction industries.

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QUOTES
From the study: “The Solar Vision Study provides a basis for policy makers to design and implement specific measures that will maximize solar energy’s potential within an optimized national energy policy framework. The study's 20-year time horizon allows sufficient time to implement and realize the benefits of significant policy changes: 20 years is short enough to analyze the evolution of the U.S. electricity-generation system yet long enough to envision substantial change. The study can also provide insights about the technology investments and policy changes that may be required in a post-2030 timeframe.”

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From the study: "Meeting 10% or 20% of U.S. electricity needs with solar energy by 2030 is feasible and does not require technological breakthroughs, untried policies, or unprecedented growth rates. However, focused and consistent public and private efforts are required. Private capital must be invested to scale-up the manufacturing and installation of solar energy technologies. Public investment in R&D and market transformation is required to enable low-cost, rapid solar growth. The U.S. regulatory and policy framework—as well as the electrical transmission and
distribution systems—also must be optimized to enable rapid growth. With these challenges addressed, the potential benefits of the Solar Vision—reduced fossil fuel use, lower GHG and other pollutant emissions, and solar job growth—could be realized with a relatively small impact on the average retail price of electricity. Perhaps even more importantly, realizing the Vision would establish a powerful position from which to continue the nation's evolution toward a cleaner, more secure energy system beyond 2030."