NEW ENERGY IN THE WORLD

Global Trends in Green Energy 2009: New Power Capacity from Renewable Sources Tops Fossil Fuels Again in US, Europe; Global investments in renewables also top non-renewables for 2nd year…
15 July 2010 (Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century)

THE POINT
Sometimes a simple statement of the facts conveys more than even NewEnergyNews’ eloquent and passionate argumentations and advocacies.

Case in point: A few selected facts about where New Energy and Energy Efficiency were at the end of 2009 in Renewables 2010 Global Status Report, from the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21), are remarkably telling.

Fact: New Energy was 60+% of Europe’s new installed electricity capacity in 2009 and 50+% of the U.S. new installed capacity.

Fact: Grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity has increased 60% per year (on average) for a decade and there is now 100 times more solar PV than there was in the year 2000.

Fact: Between 2005 to 2009, the world’s wind energy capacity increased 27% per year (on average) and solar water heating capacity increased 19% per year.

Fact: It is expected that more of the new electricity generation capacity the world community installs will be sourced in New Energy than in Old Energy by late 2010 or 2011.

But --

Fact: In 2009, for the first time, more private sector investment in New Energy and Energy Efficiency came from Asia/Oceania ($40.8 billion) than from the Americas ($32.3 billion).

Fact: In 2009, China manufactured 40% of the world’s solar PV, 30% of the world’s wind turbines, and 77% of the world’s solar hot water systems.

Fact: By early 2010, the number of nations in the world community with New Energy and Energy Efficiency policies had almost doubled since 2005, from 55 to over 100, and ~50% are in developing nations.

The REN21 reports have been coming out annually since 2005. There is little question that someday historians can refer to them as documentation of the world’s transition to New Energy and, because it is a truism that history is written by the winners, it is looking very much like those historians will be Asian.

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NewEnergyNews congratulates the Obama administration for its latest political victory: It has successfully shifted the debate about the November election. Now, instead of the opposition capturing headlines for gaining Congressional seats, Democrats will win those headlines – no matter how many seats they lose – if they retain majorities in the Senate and House.

For New Energy advocates, this is a hugely important political victory because now Senate Democrats can move ahead with the urgently-needed energy bill containing a Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) and vital financial incentives. Maybe Democrats will even feel well-positioned enough to work some (compromised) measure limiting greenhouse gas emissions into the legislation.

(Tomorrow’s lead post will cover Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2010; Analysis of Trend and Issues in the Financing of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency, the UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative and Bloomberg New Energy Finance companion piece to the Status Report covering NE and EE investment in 2009 and early 2010.)

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THE DETAILS
The REN21 study is so rich in numbers it is impossible to do much more here than list some of its engaging statistics and offer up some of its impressively clear graphics portraying the growth of world New Energy (NE) and Energy Efficiency (EE).

The world community installed ~80 gigawatts (GW) of New Energy capacity (31 GW of hydro and 48 GW of non-hydro) in 2009. The 48 GWE of non-hydro New Energy was up 16.5+% from 2008’s 40 GW.

New Energy in 2009 was ~25% the world’s electricity generating capacity (1,230 of 4,800 GW of all sources). It was 18% of world electricity production. It was 60+% of Europe’s new electricity-generating capacity and 50+% of new U.S. electricity generating capacity.

China’s total installed New Energy capacity at the end of 2009 was 226 GW.

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Wind:
Wind power capacity grew an average of 27% per year from 2005 to 2009. It grew a record 38 GW in 2009, led by China (13.8 GW), the U.S. (10 GW), and Spain (2.5 GW).

Since the 1990s, when few countries other than the U.S., Denmark and Germany had utility-scale wind capacity, wind power has built a presence in 82+ countries.

From 2007 to 2009, China increased its share of world wind turbine manufacturing from 10% to 25%.

Trends: (a) Expansion of offshore wind capacity and technology, (b) increased distributed, grid-connected small wind capacity and technology, (c) wind projects in an ever widening variety of places and situations, and (d) increased turbine capacity and efficiency.

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Solar:
With an average annual 60% international growth from 2000 to 2009, grid-connected installed PV capacity went from 0.2 GW to 2009's 21 GW. Solar PV added ~11 GW of capacity in 2009, a 50% increase over 2008.

By early 2010, 0.7 GW of concentrating solar power (CSP) was installed, all in the U.S. Southwest and Spain, but solar power plant installed capacity fell in 2009, due to several factors including the PV oversupply and its concomitant reduced prices, the stricture on available credit, and a sudden freeze in the Spanish market. Much CSP planning and construction continues.

PV installed capacity for 2009 was a record-breaking 7 GW, with Germany building more than half of that (3.8 GW) and Italy, Japan, the United States and the Czech Republic in the top 5. Spain, which led in 2008, dropped to almost nothing due to a policy reversal. First Solar became the first solar energy company to produce 1 GW of capacity in a year.

World solar water heating grew 21% in 2009 to an estimated 70 million homes.

China produced 40% of world PV and 77% of its solar hot water collectors in 2009.

The cost of solar PV-generated electricity dropped from mid-2008's $3.50 per watt to $2 per watt at the end of 2009.

Trends: (a) Consolidation and increased emphasis on project development followed the oversupply-induced price drop, (b) thin-film PV’s increasing market share (up to 25%) slowed, and (c) more utility-scale PV projects (200 kilowatts and bigger) are being built and now account for ~25% of grid-connected solar PV capacity.

Trends: In Europe, ~50% of the 2009 solar water heating market is in larger ‘combi’ solar hot water systems that provide hot water and space heating.

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Biofuels:
2009’s ethanol production was up 20% and biodiesel production was up 51%.

8% of the world’s use of gasoline was replaced by biofuels in 2009. Expansion is especially strong in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru).

U.S. corn ethanol production capacity was underutilized. Several producers declared bankruptcy. Brazilian sugar ethanol capacity also fell off but expansion plans remain in place. Only ~50% of Europe’s biodiesel capacity was used in 2009.

Corn is used for 50+% of world ethanol. Sugar cane is 33+%. The U.S. and Brazil own ~90% of world ethanol production.

Trends: RD&D of second-generation biofuels pilot-production plants, most with at least partial public funding.

The use of biomass plants for electricity and heat are now in 50+ countries and increasing, especially in Europe. Sweden’s biomass, for the first time, provided more of its energy than oil.

Trends: (a) Solid biomass pellets, (b) biomass in building-scale or community-scale combined-heat-and-power plants (CHP), and (c) biomass for centralized district heating systems.

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Geothermal:
The use of geothermal for power and heat grew. There is now production in 19 countries. New plants were commissioned in Indonesia, Italy, Turkey, and the U.S. in 2009.

Trend: The use of geothermal direct-use heat plants and ground-source heat pumps.

The world has ~500 gigawatts-thermal (GWth) of New Energy heating capacity: (a) biomass (270 GWth), (b) solar (170 GWth), and (c) geothermal (60 GWth).

Energy efficiency
For the first time, there was more financial attention to this sector than to New Energy in 2009.

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Public policy:
Of the now 100 countries with a policy goal and/or other New Energy incentive, many target obtaining 15%-to-25% of electricity from New Energy sources by 2020. Most of the 100 countries have more than one policy and there is a wide diversity of approaches at national, state/provincial, and local levels.

By early 2010, at least 50 countries and 25 states/provinces had feed-in tariffs (FiTs). 10 nations and 46 state/provincial governments had RESs. 10 countries and 43 U.S. states have net metering laws for distributed generation.

Brazil’s target is 75% of electricity by 2030, China’s is 15% of final energy by 2020, India’s goal is 20 GW of solar by 2022, and Kenya’s is 4 GW of geothermal by 2030.

With new policies, developed countries (Australia, Canada, Japan) grew and diversified their NE and EE capacities in 2009.

Because of their aggressive new policy targets, China, India, and South Korea are taking manufacturing leadership away from Europe.

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For the same reason, developing countries – which were almost half of the countries with policy goals in 2009 (38 of 80) and almost half of the countries with other policy incentives (41 of 81) – now have 50+% of world New Energy capacity. New Energy markets in developing countries (examples: Argentina, Costa Rica, Egypt, Indonesia, Kenya, Tanzania, Thailand, Tunisia, Uruguay) grew more quickly in 2009. By 2009, ~20 countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa had active New Energy markets.

In Germany, a Renewable Heating Law requires at least 20% of heat in new residential buildings to come from New Energy.

41 states/provinces and 24 nations have laws requiring biofuels to be blended into vehicle fuels.

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Other impacts:
The world now has ~3 million direct jobs, and many more indirect jobs, in NE/EE. ~50% are in biofuels. Several countries have hundreds of thousands of NE/EE jobs.

Public-sector banks (the European Investment Bank, Germany’s KfW) added to their investments in the sector in 2009.

There was a “huge increase” in spending on assistance to developing countries for NE/EE in 2009. The World Bank Group, Germany’s KfW, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the Asian Development Bank were the biggest players. Dozens of other development agencies made loans, grants, and technical assistance available.

Estimates put the use of some kind of New Energy in rural settings at the tens of millions of families. This is as (a) micro-hydro configured into village-scale or county-scale mini-grids, (b) lighting and cooking from biogas made in household-scale digesters (30+ million households), (c) small solar PV systems (3 million households), (d) new, efficient and lower emissions biomass cookstoves (160+ million households).

While NE/EE support was strong in 2009, action on greenhouse gas emissions (GhGs) fell because of the recession, “climategate” and the cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

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QUOTES
- Acim Steiner, Executive Director, UNEP: “The sustainable energy investment story of 2009 was one of resilience, frustration and determination. Resilience to the financial downturn that was hitting all sectors of the global economy and frustration that, while the UN climate convention meeting in Copenhagen was not the big breakdown that might have occurred, neither was it the big breakthrough so many had hoped for. Yet there was determination on the part of many industry actors and governments, especially in rapidly developing economies, to transform the financial and economic crisis into an opportunity for greener growth…There remains however a serious gap between the ambition and the science in terms of where the world needs to be in 2020 to avoid dangerous climate change. But what this five years of research underlines is that this gap is not unbridgeable. Indeed, renewable energy is consistently and persistently bucking the trends and can play its part in realizing a low carbon, resource efficient Green Economy if government policy sends ever harder market signals to investors…"

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- Mohamed El-Ashry, Chair, REN21: “Favorable policies now in place in more than 100 countries have played a critical role in the strength of global renewable energy investments recently. For the upward trend of renewable energy growth to continue, policy efforts now need to be taken to the next level and encourage a massive scale up of renewable technologies.”

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- From the report: “Changes in renewable energy markets, investments, industries, and policies have been so rapid in recent years that perceptions of the status of renewable energy can lag years behind the reality…Many of the trends reflect the increasing significance of renewable energy relative to conventional energy sources (including coal, gas, oil, and nuclear)… The year 2009 was unprecedented in the history of renewable energy, despite the headwinds posed by the global financial crisis, lower oil prices, and slow progress with climate policy. Indeed, as other economic sectors declined around the world, existing renewable capacity continued to grow at rates close to those in previous years, including grid-connected solar PV (53 percent), wind power (32 percent), solar hot water/heating (21 percent), geothermal power (4 percent), and hydropower (3 percent)…”