QUICK NEWS, 7-13: SUDDENLY A SUN BOOM; CAP UTILITIES ONLY?; DON’T WORRY ABOUT LITHIUM; ABOUT OIL’S TAX BREAKS

SUDDENLY A SUN BOOM
Global PV Market to Reach 14.6 GW in 2010…
12 July 2010 (IMS Research)

"…According to IMS Research, the global PV market will almost double in 2010 to reach a massive 14.6 GW, nearly three times size of the market back in 2008…[These] latest installation forecasts [are] derived by carefully analysing PV demand in more than 40 countries globally. In addition, to tracking PV demand, the forecast is importantly based on a survey of inverter suppliers which analysed the inverter industry’s production for 2010…

"The last time a GW-sized global PV market grew on this scale was back in 2008 when the Spanish market overheated and accounted for 43% of new PV capacity. This year, Germany is of course the main driver and is predicted to account for an even greater proportion – some 47% of new capacity. Trouble may be looming ahead…"

The EU share will likely never again be as big as it will be this year, thanks to German-designed feed-in tariffs. (click to enlarge)

"…Germany, Italy and Czech Republic are predicted to install a combined 9.8 GW of new PV capacity…[D]ue to changes in incentive schemes and new regulations, this total is predicted to fall considerably in 2011 and new markets will [be needed]…[Unlike] the end of 2008, when the Spanish market collapsed and PV prices went into freefall, IMS Research is predicting a more gradual slowdown in growth at the end of this year and some softening of PV module prices in Q1’11.

"Despite very high demand coming from EMEA (which in 2010 will have three GW+ markets), its share of the global market is actually predicted to fall slightly to 78% in 2010 as emerging markets in Asia and North America take off."


CAP UTILITIES ONLY?
Environmentalists Push for Utility-Only Cap as Snowe and Kerry Work on Compromise Energy Bill

Andrew Restuccia, July 12, 2010 (The Washington Independent)

"In an effort to maintain a cap on carbon — even a significantly scaled-down one — in energy and climate legislation, environmentalists are working with electric utilities and manufacturers to try to find middle ground that would center on a utility-only cap on greenhouse gas emissions…

"…[Support is being sought] among manufacturing groups, who have traditionally opposed a utility-only cap because they say it would impose an economic burden…Environmentalists don’t expect manufacturers to 'applaud' the idea of a utility-only cap…but they are hoping to avoid an 'all-out war' on the issue."

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"The last-minute push by environmentalists could be the last chance to show support for any sort of cap on carbon emissions in an energy bill…[A] final energy bill is expected to include an oil spill response package and a renewable electricity standard, but not a cap on carbon, even a utility-only cap."

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"…[It is said] Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) and her staff are working with Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and his staff on a compromise energy bill, though the details remain unclear…

"Bill Wicker — a spokesman for Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), chairman of the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee — confirmed earlier media reports that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has scheduled a meeting this week with committee chairs with jurisdiction over climate change…"


DON’T WORRY ABOUT LITHIUM
Don't believe a word about electric cars and the coming lithium shortage
Shelley DuBois, July 12, 2010 (Fortune via CNN Money)

"Shai Agassi wants to put the world into electric cars whose batteries can be swapped out at one of his futuristic 'gas' stations. But just as the cells in flashlights and laptops need lithium to run, so do -- swappable batteries or not -- electric cars. And some are now saying that will make lithium, in our increasingly battery-dependent society, increasingly hard to come by.

"There are rumblings in the press that the auto industry switching from petroleum to lithium is simply shifting from one finite resource to another, and even that the U.S.'s real reasons for invading Afghanistan were to secure its massive deposits of the alkali metal…[S]keptics think there might be trouble accessing enough lithium…[But] the United States Geological Survey (USGS) [says] current producers are providing enough lithium to fuel the projected number of electric vehicles for the next ten years. After that, the major factor that will drive competition between players in the energy industry might not be mining lithium, but recycling it."

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"It doesn't make sense, financially, to recycle lithium now. Producers are mining way [more than is demanded]...Lithium isn't currently [much] used for car batteries…[I]t's used for batteries in laptops, cell phones and cordless tools…[which slowed] during the recession, which meant a surplus of lithium existed in 2009, along with a fall in price…Lithium will [only] surge is if electric vehicles roll out successfully in massive enough numbers…

"Agassi wants to be the man behind that surge. His company, Better Place, is based on the principle that manufacturers don't need to wait for battery technology to improve to roll out consumer-grade electric cars. Instead, Agassi hopes to build networks of switching stations where drivers can change used batteries for fresh ones much like they fill up at gas stations now."



"…Better Place has partnered with car [and other] companies…Israel should have a fully operative system by next year…Renault [will] build 100,000 electric cars for Israel and Denmark by 2011…[There are plans for] networks in Australia and Hawaii…[I]t looks like lithium isn't one of the limiting factors…As of 2009, the U.S. had 2.5 million tons of lithium in reserve, and there were an estimated 23 million tons in other countries…Lithium-ion batteries for cars only need under 15 kilograms of the element per battery pack…

"Reports of large lithium reserves in Bolivia and Afghanistan have caused a stir in the media…But foreign miners are unlikely to take the element from either place. Bolivian president Evo Morales won't sell Bolivian lithium, and Afghanistan is still too dangerous…But if the electric car industry takes off, people won't need to tap into new sources of lithium for about ten years…[and that's] assuming that the technology doesn't improve to make Lithium-ion batteries more efficient…[And lithium] can be recycled…[T]he people who will hold the power in the lithium industry of the future will be the companies with the best recycling technology…"


ABOUT OIL’S TAX BREAKS
Enviro Groups' Memo Outlines Corporate Welfare Attack on Oil Industry
Anne C. Mulkern, July 12, 2010 (NY Times)

"…A memo circulating from Clean Energy Works, an alliance of about 60 groups, outlines a strategy of framing tax benefits the [oil] industry receives as corporate welfare. The memo calls the messaging plan a 'line of attack' to counteract the description of climate legislation as a national energy tax."

[The Memo:]"The coming weeks will be very important for supporters of comprehensive clean energy and climate legislation…The opposition, in the form of [the American Petroleum Institute] and Big Oil lobbyists in Washington, are spending millions on smear campaigns and calling on their cronies in the Senate to do everything they can to continue America's dependence on oil and prevent a new policy that moves us away from oil and toward a clean energy economy…What they don't want anyone to know is that the American people already have a national energy tax -- The Big Oil Welfare Tax -- in the form of billions of dollars in subsidies to the wildly profitable big oil companies…"

Slice it, dice it or lie about it, but fossil fuels get the lion's share of taxpayer subsidies and it's time that changed. (click to enlarge)

"The coalition of environmental groups and others said it wants a counterpoint to the oil industry's charge that comprehensive climate legislation would amount to a $1,200 annual energy tax on every household…[This] follows [reports] that the oil industry receives $4 billion annually in tax benefits, some of them stemming from decades-old laws to promote oil exploration. Capital investments such as oil-field leases and drilling equipment see a levy of 9 percent…while other industries see an overall tax of 25 percent.

"API, the trade group for the oil and natural gas industry, rejected that it receives corporate welfare…API [says it] has not been among those calling climate legislation a national energy tax. API has not come out in opposition to any of the Senate climate bills, saying that it is 'neutral.'"

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"The Clean Energy Works memo details a number of tax benefits that the oil and natural gas industry receives, and the value of each. Transocean Ltd., the company that owned the drilling rig that exploded and sank in the Gulf of Mexico, saved $1.8 billion in taxes by moving overseas in 1999…API said many of the tax benefits called into question are enjoyed by other industries, as well…

"The Obama administration wants to eliminate many of the industry's tax concessions…In addition, there would be new taxes on Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production and the reinstatement of taxes to generate revenue for cleaning up hazardous waste sites…The same Obama revenue-raising proposal stalled last year, and the proposal so far has received a cold reception from the Senate…[It] last month rejected, 35-61, an amendment that would have ended $35 billion worth of tax breaks for oil and gas producers over the next decade…"