QUICK NEWS, 7-21: WELCOME TO THE ANTHROPOCENE; PLANNING OCEAN ENERGY; SOLAR POWER PLANTS SOONER; GEOTHERMAL NO GAMBLE IN NEVADA

WELCOME TO THE ANTHROPOCENE
Without Carbon Emissions Cuts, the 'Anthropocene' Looms as an Ugly Epoch – Study
Lauren Morello, July 19, 2010 (NY Times)

"Choices the world makes about whether to cut man-made carbon dioxide emissions will determine the severity of climate change over the next thousand years -- or longer, according to a new report by the country's leading scientific advisory body, the National Academy of Sciences.

"That's because the greenhouse gas lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds or even thousands of years…[Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millenia]…breaks down how each additional degree of warming would affect the Earth, cataloging impacts on forests, fresh water supplies, fisheries, Arctic sea ice, sea level and agriculture…The picture it paints is stark:"

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"Every 1 degree Celsius of warming -- roughly 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit -- would reduce rainfall in the American Southwest, the Mediterranean and southern Africa by 5 to 10 percent…Stream flow in some river basins -- including the Arkansas and the Rio Grande -- would drop by 5 to 10 percent…Yields of some crops, including U.S. and African corn and Indian wheat, would fall 5 to 15 percent…1 to 2 degrees Celsius of warming is enough to double or even quadruple the area burned by wildfires in the American West…[B]eyond 2 degrees Celsius…there would be little forested land left to fuel flames -- meaning parts of the West that are now tree-covered would transform into entirely new ecosystems."

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"Focusing on effects of incremental rises in temperature, rather than different levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, revealed commonalities in the projections of climate models that appeared to disagree…[M]odels that attempt to project how warming will affect sea ice cover in the Arctic…[become consistent] because sea ice, like many of the other parts of the environment discussed in the report, is most sensitive to temperature change…"

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"While the report focuses on how climate change could affect life on Earth into the far future, it also takes stock of the present…Humans have already changed climate to the point that Earth has entered a new geologic epoch, which the analysis dubs the "Anthropocene." …[E]ven if the primary human activities that produce greenhouse emissions -- cutting down forests and burning fossil fuels -- were to stop immediately, a certain amount of additional warming is already baked into the climate system."


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"The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has jumped from roughly 280 parts per million in preindustrial times to 390 ppm today, raising Earth's temperature roughly 0.9 degree Celsius…The seas, slow to warm, have absorbed a lot of extra heat trapped by that CO2, along with about 80 percent of CO2 emissions. But over time, that will change. As oceans start pumping some of that accumulated heat and CO2 back into the atmosphere, the CO2 emitted up until now will cause another 1 degree Celsius of warming…

"Ultimately, whether the Anthropocene will amount to a blip in Earth's history or a major climate shift lasting "many thousands" of years depends on the choices society makes about whether -- and how much -- to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, the new report says…That requires making value judgments about the level of risk we're willing to endure -- a question that goes beyond scientific projections…"


PLANNING OCEAN ENERGY
Marine spatial planning in Calif. sets example for new federal ocean plans
Molly Peterson, July 19, 2010 (KPCC)

"A presidential task force said…the United States should improve ocean policy by managing what people do in coastal waters by region, not just by activity…A growing number of scientific studies find that spatial management helps to protect ecosystems and reduce climate changing activities…

"…[John Holdren, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy] said that with more than 100 federal regulations and orders about the ocean, it makes sense to coordinate how all federal agencies make policy in domestic waters…President Obama is expected to sign an executive order that would activate the task force recommendations. That could result in the creation of a National Ocean Council by the end of the year."

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"Right now most federal policies toward coastal waters — more than a hundred of them — consider what people are doing one activity at a time, or one use at a time. Marine spatial planning means deciding what people can do in a part of the ocean by looking at impacts across a region.

"…[Nancy Sutley, Chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality] says the plan isn't to make many new laws, but to do a better job coordinating existing ones with a National Ocean Council…[California, Oregon and Massachusetts have] adopted spatial planning in state-run waters. White House officials say nine regional groups will develop proposals for their portions of the sea in the next year or so..."


SOLAR POWER PLANTS SOONER
The BLM fast track: Speeding CSP project development in the US?
Bob Moser, 16 July 2010 (CSP Today)

"The US Bureau of Land Management is in the early stages of rolling out a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) on a total of 24 solar energy study areas, amounting to about 700,000 acres of land. It would identify and designate land for renewable energy projects, namely solar and geothermal, but questions remain…

"The BLM is on pace to have the draft…[done, reviewed and publicized] in December…spurred by the Obama Administration's desire to double clean energy capacity in two to three years…[P]olicymakers recognize that there are too many projects waiting in line for bureaucratic approval."

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"While some believe a PEIS would likely benefit large-scale, shovel-ready projects, Richard Bouts of BLM's energy policy team says applicants from across the board will be thankful. BLM currently has more than 150 land-use plans across the country…Developers that had projects in the pipeline without much progress would now have a much clearer idea of how those projects should move forward…[U]ntil now, the EIS has been a learn-as-you-go process for many developers…[A]t times regulators came back with problems that few could have forecast…

"It is debatable as to whether this new process will make federal land more attractive than private land for development. It is certainly more simple to deal with a private land owner than the government and all its regulatory requirements…BLM's goal has always been to develop a PEIS that is in line with land and environmental law, yet doesn't push public land prices too far from what the market will bear…"

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"It is not clear yet if the PEIS will favor the growth of certain technologies in CSP. Regulation already in play in California has favored dry cooling. Analysts find it unlikely, at least in this very early stage, that specific technologies will be given the upper hand…

"A total of 34 projects have been placed on BLM's fast track, with 14 being solar-related and the vast majority in California. The fast-track projects were chosen because it's believed they can jump through the necessary hoops and be permitted before the December deadline for stimulus bill grants."


GEOTHERMAL NO GAMBLE IN NEVADA
Geothermal power booming in Nevada; GEA expects 30-year economic output of $22.5 billion
July 19, 2010 (Geothermal Energy Association)

"If Nevada were a country, it would be the 9th largest producer of geothermal power in the world today, but the state is poised to climb even higher in the rankings…[T]he growth of the geothermal industry in Nevada could be worth up to $22.5 billion over the next 30 years.

"Nevada could become the leading geothermal energy producer in the coming years if growth and production trends continue…Nevada’s 86 planned or developing geothermal power plants have the potential to add up to 3,686.4 Megawatts of geothermal power to Nevada’s energy portfolio, power for 2.6 million homes - enough to meet the electricity needs of 100% of the homes in the Las Vegas metropolitan area."

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"Fourteen geothermal power plants are in latter stages of development in the state. These projects will immediately create an estimated 1,400 construction jobs in Nevada once groundbreaking has occurred…

"Twenty recipients in Nevada were awarded a combined $73.6 million in Department of Energy funding, via the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) and FY 08 appropriations. The infusion of ARRA funding alone into geothermal development in Nevada is expected to create roughly 1,100 jobs in the state."

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"Nevada has also generated over $44 million from Bureau of Land Management geothermal leasing activities. This includes $4.6 million in royalties and over $49 million in bonus bids. $33 million of these funds were to be distributed to the State of Nevada and the specific counties involved.

"The state of Nevada and geothermal counties should receive an additional $12.9 million from recent Bureau of Land Management leases. As money continues to flow in from leases and royalties, which will grow with geothermal project development, rural counties are anticipating an economic boom…[and if] all of the developing projects in Nevada come online…[they] will offset more than 23.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually. This is equivalent to taking almost 4.5 million vehicles off the road each year…"