THE COST OF SUN COMING DOWN

PV Module Costs and Prices – What is Really Happening?
Sam Wilkinson, 12 August 2010 (World of Photovoltaics)

"It is earnings call season once again for solar PV module suppliers…Q2’10 looks set to continue the market’s recent record setting trend…A few things immediately stand out from the first few calls…

"PV Module Costs are Down…[F]eed-in tariffs (FiT) and incentive schemes in major PV markets such as Germany are set to continue decreasing…[so] suppliers are maintaining a strong focus on reducing costs…in order to remain competitively priced and profitable…[and] to gain independence from the subsidy schemes…First Solar…[drove] its costs down 8% [in Q2’10] to $0.74 per watt, citing improved throughput, increased efficiencies and reduced material costs…"

From IMS Research (click to enlarge)

"…[Because] increased volumes and high utilizations [are] predicted in the third quarter, IMS Research forecasts that module production costs will fall once again in Q3’10…[but] the supply of wafers remains short…[C]rystalline cell manufacturers (particularly those that are not vertically integrated) are predicted to see increases in raw material costs, handing some advantage back to thin film suppliers such as First Solar and making it more difficult to reduce [short-term] costs further…

"…IMS Research…[data] from Asian and US suppliers…[showed a] decline of factory-gate selling prices…[despite] current sky-high levels of demand and tight supply…[It is because of Q2’s] decrease in the revenue generated by each PV module sold, [but] due to exchange rate issues this has not translated into any decrease in prices to wholesalers, distributers or end-customers…Europe accounted for…82% of [Q2’10] PV installations…[but t6he bulk of] modules were supplied…[using non-Euro] currencies…[The depreciation of the Euro against the US Dollar and the Renminbi has cut into revenues of many module manufacturers but benefited European suppliers]…"

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"…There is almost no uncertainty surrounding demand for PV in the second half of this year and 2010 will certainly prove to be another remarkable year…PV module shipments are forecast to increase by an incredible 60% over 2009 to reach 15.6 GW…[D]riven by further cuts [in the German feed-in tariff] which will take place on October 1st and January 1st 2011…module shipments are forecast to increase to more than 4 GW in Q3’10…Crystalline module prices are predicted to remain relatively unaffected…

"Beyond 2010 the situation is less clear…[especially because of] multiple FiT reductions in the largest European markets heading into 2011…[It is likely there will be] another unhealthy drop in demand (similar to that experienced early in 2009 following the demise of the Spanish market)…IMS Research forecasts that installations in EMEA will decline by 80% Q-o-Q in Q1…[to] quickly reverse the current imbalance between supply and demand and average PV module prices are forecast to [trend down]…[Though First Solar is expanding its production capacity by 500-700 MW,] most agree that 2011 demand cannot remain as strong as 2010…"