LATEST FORECAST FOR ELECTRIC CARS

Plug-in Electric Vehicles; Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles: OEM Strategies, Demand Drivers, Technology Issues, Key Industry Players, and Global Market Forecasts
Dave Hurst and Clint Wheelock, 3Q 2010 (Pike Research)

"Plug-in vehicles are being launched in two different forms: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). Both…[offer] improved fuel economy or no petroleum based fuel usage, lower or zero emissions while driving, and a quieter ride. PHEVs are similar to current hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), but provide the additional benefit of allowing owners to plug the vehicle into the electric grid to recharge the batteries. In both BEVs and PHEVs, stored energy in the batteries provides power to an electric motor…PHEVs deplete the batteries before the internal combustion engine (ICE) starts. The ICE may provide power to the wheels or just recharge the battery…HEV batteries are recharged solely through regenerative braking and/or the ICE. BEV batteries are charged solely from connecting to the grid and do not have an ICE onboard…

"PHEVs have received a great deal of media attention…[but] the concept…is not actually new; for years, HEV owners have been converting their vehicles to plug into the electric grid…[New and] less expensive lithium-ion batteries…provide higher power density at a lower weight…HEVs have been in the market for more than 10 years and a significant number of vehicles have been sold globally…PHEVs offer increased electric driving range over HEVs and are expected be priced higher…BEVs do not require petroleum fuel because they plug into the electric grid for all their energy, but have about one-third to one-half the range of PHEVs."

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"…Pike Research expects that sales of PHEVs and BEVs will be strong – 107% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and 106% CAGR, respectively, between 2010 and 2015…[it forecasts] the HEV market will grow…[to] 12.7% CAGR between 2010 and 2015 (compared to 4.8% CAGR for the overall light-duty vehicle market)…in almost every market segment…PHEVs will follow HEVs’ lead…[and] will be launched in passenger cars initially, followed closely by the small SUV segment….BEVs will be initially focused on small [more efficient] cars…[that] allow use of a smaller, less expensive battery…

"…PHEVs operate in electric mode until the batteries reach a certain level of depletion (typically between 10 and 40 miles). Once that occurs, an ICE maintains the batteries’ state of charge…Batteries are among the most expensive components in PHEVs and BEVs…[L]ithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries…offer good power density (300 W/kg to 1,500 W/kg) and high nominal voltage (3V to 4V)…[L]ead acid and nickel metal hydride [batteries] cannot match the weight-to-power ratio…[but] Li-ion is also a more expensive technology…[C]osts [range] from $175 to $500/mile…"

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"…Some research shows that U.S. consumers are still wary about high up-front costs for vehicles, regardless of savings on fuel. Because of this, government incentives will continue to play an important role…Many consumers may ultimately choose a plug-in vehicle that is aligned with a brand they already trust. Toyota and Honda are likely to benefit from their established positions…GM’s early entry into the market is expected to help bolster its initial PHEV sales (by 2015, GM is anticipated to have 20% global PHEV market share).

"…[T]he 107% CAGR for the PHEV market will result in global sales of 472,612 vehicles in 2015. Pike Research anticipates that the United States will lead…with 204,110 PHEVs sold in 2015 – followed distantly by Japan with 62,143…Pike Research anticipates that BEVs will steal some of the [China PHEV] volume…[S]ales of BEVs in China are expected to reach 262,203 vehicles in 2015 (compared to 47,982 PHEVs) thanks to strong government support…Combined, BEVs and PHEVs will result in a fast-growing marketplace…[V] ehicles that plug into the grid (BEV and PHEV) will reach just over 1 million in five years (1,081,294 vehicles in 2015), with PHEVs accounting for 44%…"