THE EV IN ASIA

Electric Vehicles in Asia Pacific; Electric Vehicles, Charging Infrastructure, and Lithium Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles: Market Analysis and Forecasts
Hoonho (Andy) Bae, John Gartner and Dave Hurst, 4Q 2010 (Pike Research)

"…In recent months, Asia Pacific countries…have been dramatically increasing… the establishment of aggressive goals, subsidies for EV purchasers, research and development (R&D) support and demonstration projects, tax incentives, regulation and standardization, and public education programs…Two key drivers of EV uptake include climate concerns and oil prices…[M]arket barriers will be caused by consumer concerns about the driving range of EVs and the lack of charging stations…Japanese and Korean market players are concerned about new challengers, mainly driven by competition in China…

"…In China, over 150 finished auto manufacturers exist and around 55 vendors are developing electrified vehicles and launching development programs for EV production. The country will become one of the biggest consumer markets for EVs…[E]xpanding charging infrastructure is a key priority. The increase in EV charging equipment is strongly correlated to the quality and quantity of commercial EV models for sale and the number of EVs on the road…The initial manufacturers of EV charging equipment in Asia Pacific have been mostly utility companies, automakers, or companies involved in industrial electricity facilities. In Japan and Korea, most manufacturers are participating in national- or prefecture-scale EV demonstration projects…Japanese vendors are aggressively entering the charging infrastructure market…"

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"The convergence of the automotive industry toward battery power and the engineering of safe and reliable lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries will slowly reshape the automotive industry as it moves toward electrification and away from fossil fuels. Asia, which has led the global market for Li-ion batteries to date, will also be the global leader in both Li-ion production and consumption in the transportation industry. The governments of Japan, Korea, and China have pledged to rapidly move their automotive industries toward battery-powered vehicles through aggressive goals for the production and creation of charging infrastructure, as well as incentives for consumer purchases…

"Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) and vehicle-to-home (V2H) are also key issues in Asia Pacific…If V2G usage increases, the competitive factor in the auto industry will change from the vehicle itself to networking and system capabilities in relation to power management between the vehicle and other points, such as home and central servers…In Japan, there is a belief that V2H will impact the auto industry further and will cause changes in the residential environment, more specifically, home electricity architecture…Since electricity delivered from EVs and solar panels is direct current (DC), existing home appliances fed by DC can directly absorb DC power from batteries in EVs or solar panels…significantly [reducing] the power loss resulting from existing alternating current (AC) while also enhancing power efficiency…"

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"…[H]ybrids and PHEVs are likely to decline in popularity and be replaced by pure battery-based vehicles. This change may occur in five years or less and may be dependent on the advent of reliable and more cost-effective battery technologies and more charging infrastructure…Asia Pacific is preparing for innovative technologies in charging methods, such as contactless charging and Inductive Power Transfer Systems (IPTS)…[that allow] vehicles to collect the electricity sources by way of optimized electromagnetic fields…from underneath the pavement…

"…Pike Research uses the term EV to include both PHEV and battery electric vehicles…The Asia Pacific region will be the largest market worldwide for electrified vehicles, led by strong demand in China, Japan, and Korea…Unit sales of all electrified vehicles in Asia Pacific will surpass 1.2 million by 2015 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% (2010-2015). China alone will experience a CAGR of 76% to reach 554,114 unit sales of all electrified vehicles by 2015…Pike Research estimates that charging station sales in Asia Pacific will reach over 860,000 units at a CAGR of 91% (2010-2015) and revenue of more than $865 million in 2015…"