FORESEEING THE ENERGY DEBATE

Why the Election Could be Good For Green Tech; The compromise that will come out of political arm-twisting will showcase green’s most valuable asset: speed.
Michael Kanellos, November 8, 2010 (Greentech Media)

"At first glance, it doesn’t look like good news…Republicans gained control of the House and narrowed the gap in the Senate…[T]he running fear is that the chances are now even more remote that [an energy bill] will pass…Actually, the opposite will happen -- for three reasons,

"First, presumptive Speaker of the House John Boehner (R.-Ohio) knows he has to accomplish something…Whether his allies like it or not, statesman-like compromise is on the agenda…Clean energy, luckily, remains one of the few issues that enjoys bipartisan support. It also plays well in most regions of the country…[There is] the rejection of Prop 23…in California…Voters in Missouri -- the heart of coal country -- in 2008 voted…to get 15 percent of their power from renewable sources…after the legislature failed to act. Voters in Colorado and Washington have both passed renewable standards."

Can Boehner turn his back on this? (click to enlarge)

"Many now understand the connections between renewable energy and national security and job growth…[U]nder-employed contractors [are] getting licenses to perform energy retrofits and solar installations. Manufacturing is also experiencing a revival with clean technology…Chinese companies like Suntech Power Holdings and A-Power Technologies are building factories in America to curb shipping costs and qualify for the “made in America” provisions in government contracts…Orders for electric car components have perked up manufacturing in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio…

"Boehner will not walk away from [that… Neither will Obama, which brings us to reason number two. The Republicans will demand subsidies and other perks for the nuclear and offshore oil drilling. Obama will give it to them…[H]e will channel the Lyndon Johnson From Within, and make his opposition pay for it. The Republicans will claim victory. The Democrats will assume a pose of pretend restraint, and a bill will pass."

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"…[T]he third cause for rejoicing: conventional energy facilities can take years to build and consume gargantuan amounts of money. Constellation Energy recently dropped plans to build Calvert Cliffs 3, a 1.6-gigawatt nuclear plant…budgeted at $9.6 billion, or $6,000 a kilowatt…[whereas the] U.S. installed 1.3 gigawatts of solar panels in 2009 and 2010 and will install 1.4 gigawatts of solar in 2011…[at a cost of] $4,000 a kilowatt before incentives and [dropping]...

"In other words, the solar panel industry will install the equivalent of a reactor annually, and that doesn’t even include the 19 gigawatts' worth of solar thermal projects proposed for the Southwest or even the activities of the wind industry…[D]aytime power is what is in demand…[The] licensing process for Calvert Cliffs 3 [began] in 2007. It…[won’t] go live until 2015 or 2017. By then, the solar industry alone will have installed the equivalent of eight Calverts…[It] will be tough to find green detractors."