GLOBAL TEMP WILL RISE UNLESS...

Global temperature to rise 3.5 degrees C. by 2035: International Energy Agency; Unless governments cut subsidies for fossil fuels and adopt new policies to support renewable energy sources, the Copenhagen Accord to hold global warming to less than a 2-degree increase will not be reached.
Stephen Kurczy, November 11, 2010 (Christian Science Monitor)

"Global temperatures are projected to rise 3.5 degrees C. over the next 25 years, the International Energy Agency said…meaning that governments worldwide will have failed in their pledge to hold global temperature at a 2-degree increase.

"But…[according] Fatih Birol, the chief economist for the IEA…If governments remove subsidies for fossil fuels and increase investments in renewable energy to make them cost competitive, then the Copenhagen Accord can still be upheld…"

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"None of that may be surprising, considering the 28-nation Copenhagen Accord signed in December 2009 was not legally binding and also fell short of recommendations from the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for how to prevent temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees C. Yet if global warming is going to be curtailed, then governments must support the development and use of renewable energy…

"The IEA projects global energy demand to surge 36 percent over the next 25 years. As that happens, use of modern renewable energy sources will triple as their share in total primary energy demand increases from 7 percent to 14 percent…"

The IEA's plan to head off climate change (click to enlarge)

"According to current government commitments and policies, the IEA projects government intervention in support of renewables (electricity from renewables and biofuels) will increase from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion (in 2009 dollars) by 2035 [but it will be inadequate to hold the global temperature increase to below 2 degrees C.]…As carbon dioxide emissions rise 21 percent to 35 billion tons, temperatures will rise 3.5 degrees C.

"To keep temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees C., the share of renewables among total energy use must reach to 38 percent by 2035, governments must end their subsidies on fossil fuels, and global demand for coal, oil, and gas must plateau before 2020…The longer the world waits to tackle the issue the more expensive it will become. The IEA estimates the price tag of meeting the Copenhagen Accord pledges at $11.6 trillion through 2030, which is a $1 trillion increase from the IEA's [2009] projection…"