INCHING FORWARD AT CANCUN

Cancun Talks Yield Climate Compromise; The world largely endorses the Copenhagen Accord as a path forward for combating climate change but postpones tough decisions for future talks
David Biello, December 11, 2010 (Scientific American)

"Elements of last year's Copenhagen Accord moved a step closer to reality as two weeks of talks concluded in Cancun…with a new consensus on the path forward for international negotiations to combat climate change. Over the objections of Bolivia, the so-called Cancun Agreements text was adopted by more than 190 countries, setting the stage for ongoing negotiations on subjects ranging from greenhouse gas emission cuts from developed and developing countries to rules for reducing deforestation…

"The compromise text is meant to serve as the blueprint for the path to a future binding climate treaty to supplant the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. That protocol continues to be backed by those countries already experiencing climate change impacts but the U.S. never signed on to it (Kyoto set binding targets, an average of a five percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions against 1990 levels, for 37 industrialized countries, including the E.U., Japan, Canada and Russia, for the years 2008-2012.)…"

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"…The new agreement is modeled on the Copenhagen Accord—backed by the largest nations in the world that are also the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, including the China and the U.S.—[and commits] to: (1) reducing global emissions to 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2050; (2) $30 billion for adaptation and mitigation actions in poor countries; and (3) the establishment of a climate fund, among other things. The Cancun Agreements both officially recognize those elements, and others…[and] incorporates greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets for developing countries—some amount below what emissions would otherwise be in 2020 if nothing were done—…for the first time…[It adds that] social and economic development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities…

"'Green Climate Fund' aid money, to be overseen by the World Bank, will pay for GHG emission reduction efforts or be used to assist poor countries in efforts to adapt to climate change's ongoing impact, such as droughts or floods…a shift that prioritizes adapting to ongoing climate change as much as mitigating it…[It] also implements $30 billion in funding—to be drawn from developed countries by 2012 to assist developing countries in adapting to climate change…[and] officially recognizes the emission reduction pledges of developed countries [responsible for 80 percent of world emissions] made as part of the Copenhagen Accord…"

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"An analysis by the United Nations Environmental Programme states that such emission reductions are not sufficient to stave off climate change…[T]he draft text is full of holes as well as promises to tackle hard issues in the future, such as the actual fate of the Kyoto Protocol. During the Cancun negotiations, countries that had signed that protocol—such as Russia and Japan—indicated they were unwilling to sign up to a successor…But those countries are willing to move forward under the terms of the Copenhagen Accord and the Cancun compromise text in essence gives a United Nations blessing to that agreement…[A] deal was [also] made on how to pay developing countries to preserve their forests—a program known as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD)…

"…The NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies released temperature data on Friday showing that 2010 boasted the warmest average temperatures worldwide since record-keeping began…One thing the Cancun compromise conspicuously lacks is mandatory targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions…And it remains unclear what exactly the U.S. will be able to do to meet its commitment…[T]he Cancun compromise at least allows for negotiations to continue next year in Durban, South Africa."