THE EV THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT

Could the Chevy Volt Really Help Reduce Global Warming?
Cristine Russell, January 13, 2011 (The Atlantic)

"Accolades keep pouring in for the Chevy Volt, the electric car darling of the 2011 Detroit auto show, including the show's North American Car of the Year award…Its all-electric rival, the Nissan Leaf, was a runner-up…But public acceptance, pricier sticker numbers, charging challenges, and a willingness to break old driving habits…will determine [if they realize their] potential to substantially reduce oil consumption, drive down air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, and help curb climate change in the decades to come…[F]irst Americans have to start buying them…

"…[Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Transportation] by the non-partisan Pew Center on Global Climate Change provides a roadmap for lowering overall transportation emissions in the decades ahead. One important part of the equation is the degree to which technological advances, supported by the public and private sector, will promote more fuel-efficient, less gas-hungry vehicles that consumers are eager to buy."

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"Transportation accounts for [more than a quarter] of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions…with cars and light trucks accounting for the biggest portion…The Pew report outlines three possible scenarios for reducing overall transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions by 2050…[From] 17 percent on the low-end…[to] an ambitious 65 percent reduction goal. The most optimistic scenario would likely require more government action than currently seems achievable, given the climate change gridlock in Washington. But clean energy crosses party lines…[and a] new transportation fuel mix, including electricity, hydrogen fuel cells, and biofuels, is expected to play a far more significant role in powering greener passenger cars in the future [and electricity is a strong contender, thanks to advanced lithium-ion batteries]…

"But novel vehicles will have to become more cost-competitive to compete with a growing fleet of highly efficient gasoline vehicles…[I]ncreasing numbers of electric cars could gradually drive down prices and increase demand for commercial charging stations, while potential battery improvements could continue to increase electric cars' driving ranges…[C]utting back transportation greenhouse gas emissions [significantly may also include] the need for cleaner electricity generation at the source…"

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"…[H]ow Americans choose to drive in years to come will be one concrete measure of their individual willingness to reduce dependence on foreign oil and greenhouse gas emissions…[B]y 2035 a new midsize car with a conventional drivetrain might get about 50 mpg on-road and those with hybrid-electric drivetrains roughly 75 mpg on-road (assuming new standards or market pressures continue to accelerate vehicle design and fuel efficiency improvements). Of course it takes longer to replace the older cars on the road. Even so, they say that the light vehicle fleet could perhaps attain an on-road fuel economy in the 35 to 40 mpg range by 2035 and 45 to 60 mpg by 2050 (much higher than the 21 mpg of today's on-road fleet or more conservative government projections of about 30 mpg for 2035).

"…[P]ast attempts to bring new fuels and new technologies into the U.S. marketplace have largely failed…But could this time be different? With gas prices rising again, will 2011 emerge as the breakout year for the electric car?…I just might be tempted to take a Volt [or the Leaf or the 2012 Ford Focus Electric]for a spin…"