GETTTING NEW ENERGY BIG ENOUGH

Green Energy’s Big Challenge: The Daunting Task of Scaling Up; To shift the global economy from fossil fuels to renewable energy will require the construction of wind, solar, nuclear, and other installations on a vast scale, significantly altering the face of the planet. Can these new forms of energy approach the scale needed to meet the world’s energy demands?
David Biello, January 20, 2011 (Yale Environment 360)

"…China installed more wind turbines in the first half of 2010 than any other country — 7,800 megawatts of potential power production, or more than the United States, the European Union, and India combined…But…even with aggressive government backing and green energy mandates, such “new energy” …accounts for less than 3 percent of China’s electricity…compared to more than 70 percent provided by coal…And as China’s economy continues to expand at a dizzying rate…wind and other renewable sources of energy will not even be able to keep pace with new demand…

"…In the U.S., electricity produced from [wind] has increased 13-fold in the past decade, yet still only provides 2.3 percent of the country’s electricity — compared to just under 50 percent provided by burning coal…[R]enewables such as the sun, wind, water, and hot rocks will play a larger role. So will…nuclear and natural gas…The question is: Can any of these resources — or even all of them put together — begin to approach the scale needed[?]…how many decades will it take? And can we move fast enough[?]"

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"…[T]he International Energy Agency says… every year between now and 2050 [the world must build]: 35 coal-fired and 20 gas-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage; 30 nuclear power plants; 12,000 onshore wind turbines paired with 3,600 offshore ones; 45 geothermal power plants; 325 million square meters-worth of photovoltaics; and 55 solar-thermal power plants. That doesn’t even include the need to build electric cars and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles…[T]he world’s economies…[will also] have to significantly improve energy efficiency and begin to harness power from sources such as waste heat from factories…If the global economy does succeed in making the transition to renewable energy, the face of the planet will be significantly changed…[T]here is reason for guarded optimism. Even in the throes of the Great Recession, renewables accounted for more than 50 percent of newly installed generating capacity in the U.S. and the European Union, while China added 37 gigawatts of mostly wind and hydropower in 2009…

"…When it comes to such a large-scale shift in energy supplies, few places face more of a challenge than the United States. Americans burn through nearly 6.4 billion barrels of oil and 1.1 billion metric tons of coal per year…83 percent of our energy…Renewable resources…supply just 8 percent of our energy…Just to supply one-quarter of its current energy mix from a resource that emits far fewer greenhouse gases — nuclear power — the U.S. would need to build 1,000 one-gigawatt nuclear reactors by 2050. Yet construction has begun on only two nuclear reactors in the U.S. since 1974…There are currently 442 reactors in the entire world…[T]he Obama administration has committed internationally to an 80 percent drop in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Either alternative energy supplies will need to ramp up from nearly zero to almost 100 percent in just four decades, or large-scale carbon capture and storage will be required…[S]imply removing one gigaton of carbon from the atmosphere would require 273 coal-fired power plants with complete carbon capture and storage…[T]here is one in the U.S., capturing just 1.5 percent of its emissions…"

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"…4 terrawatts of power by 2050 (a conservative estimate, given that we already use more than three)…would require at least 4 million wind turbines — necessitating building 12, three-megawatt wind turbines every hour for the next 30 years…[or building] 160 billion square meters of photovoltaic cells or concentrating mirrors…[and] finding the space…The challenge is worse for smaller countries: the United Kingdom would have to cover its entire landmass with wind turbines…

"…[I]nstalling new energy technologies on a mass scale are by no means impossible. In the first half of the 20th century, it took the U.S. 45 years to increase its use of oil…[to] 20 percent of the total energy…At the same time, the U.S. built a sprawling gasoline-fueling station infrastructure, the rudiments of a national electricity grid, thousands of miles of telephone lines, airplanes and airports, interstate natural gas pipelines, and local delivery infrastructure for home heating — and rolled out all the appliances (refrigerators, radios, televisions, etc.) of the modern age…in the same few decades…In other words, the U.S… ‘scaled up’…pretty rapidly in the past…Transforming the global economy to run on renewable energy would require a similarly massive effort…If society’s efforts were turned in different directions, shifting from making fewer consumer products to making more devices to capture renewable energy, the transition might ultimately fuel itself…[B]everage makers now produce some 300 billion aluminum cans per year…enough production capacity to manufacture 100 or 200 gigawatts of solar thermal annually…"