ITALIAN SUN SHINING

Italian Solar Installations Soar in Q4, Setting Stage for Blowout 2011; iSuppli predicts the country will install 975 megawatts (MW) worth of PV solar systems in the fourth quarter.
4 January 2011 (World of Photovoltaics)

"Italy’s solar market [went] into overdrive in the fourth quarter [of 2010], setting the stage for a doubling in photovoltaic (PV) installations in 2011, as global investment flows into the country, according to the photovoltaic market research firm iSuppli, now part of IHS Inc…

"…iSuppli predicts [Italy] will install 975 megawatts (MW) worth of PV solar systems in the fourth quarter, doubling the 487 MW in the third quarter, and rising 239 percent from 288 MW during the fourth quarter of 2009."

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"This fourth-quarter surge will cause installations in 2010 to rise to 1.9 gigawatts (GW), up 100 percent from 720 MW in 2009…[setting] the stage for another doubling of the market in 2011, with installations rising to 3.9 GW…

"Installations finished by the end of the year and connected to the grid by June 30, 2011, will still be able to benefit of the 2010 feed-in tariff (FIT) tariff of Italy’s Second Conto d’energia…[For] installed system prices of 2,500 to 2,800 euros per kilowatt-peak units (kWp), a highly attractive internal rate of return (IRR) of 15 to 18 percent is possible in Italy…[attracting solar investors abandoning] caps or severe reductions of solar FITs in France, the Czech Republic and Spain…and even the safe harbor of Germany…"

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"…[Even with a planned reduction, the] IRR of solar investments in Italy still will be higher than anywhere else…Nonetheless, some signs of potential trouble may lie ahead…

"…[T]he Italian government might reduce the FIT more quickly than scheduled…[but] it is unlikely that authorities will be able to change the FIT before the third quarter of 2011 [and delays in review are foreseen]…[R]egional governments…might try to limit the amount of land used for solar…[but] any such limitations must pass Italian federal law…[T]he grid connection in Southern Italy will certainly prove more challenging than elsewhere, posing additional [but not insurmountable] headaches."