PRESIDENT’S DAY’S STUDY: LIKE GEO. WASHINGTON & HONEST ABE, NO LIES ABOUT THE CLIMATE

Of the great men who stood for truth, George Washington and Abraham Lincoln stand among the foremost. Lincoln's nickname was "Honest Abe" and Washington's defining remark was "I cannot tell a lie."

Some people react to the truth with kicking and screaming. Some, like Washington and Lincoln, accept it gracefully. Either way, the truth is there.

In the case of climate change, the facts are the facts and no matter how much deniers play with half-truths and statistical irrelevancies, the chemistry and physics of this geosphere are what they are: The more humans spew, the more the climate reacts.

With the benefit of the report highlighted below, anybody can learn more than a little of the truth about climate change. The report is part of Climate Change 101; Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change, a series of easily readable papers that offers a full spectrum of information on the subject.

Mark Twain once observed that a man who holds a cat by the tail learns things he could learn in no other way. The people of this good earth have a cat by the tail. It is past time to face that truth.

Climate Change 101; Overview
January 2011 (Pew Center on Global Climate Change)

Climate Change 101

Climate change is happening and it is caused largely by human activity. Its impacts are beginning to be felt and will worsen in the decades ahead unless we take action. The solution to climate change will involve a broad array of technologies and policies—many tried and true, and many new and innovative.

This overview summarizes the eight-part series Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change…

A Real Problem with Real Solutions

The overwhelming body of scientific evidence demonstrates unequivocally that the earth is warming. Climate change is happening, it is caused in large part by human activity, its impacts are beginning to be experienced and these damaging effects will only increase in the decades ahead. Greenhouse gas emissions from cars, power plants, and other human activities—rather than natural variations in climate—are the primary cause of contemporary global warming. Due largely to the combustion of fossil fuels, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), the principal human-produced greenhouse gas, are at a level unequaled for at least 800,000 years. The greenhouse gases (GHGs) from human activities are trapping more of the sun’s heat in the earth’s atmosphere, resulting in warming. Over the last century, the global average temperatures rose by almost 1.5°F (see Figure 1), and the Arctic warmed about twice as much. The oceans have also warmed, especially within 1,000 feet of the surface (see Figure 1).

Carbon dioxide and other GHGs always have been present in the atmosphere, keeping the earth hospitable to life by trapping heat and warming our atmosphere. Yet, since the industrial revolution, emissions of these gases from human activity have increased steadily, trapping more heat and amplifying the greenhouse effect (see Figure 2). Since pre-industrial times, atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased by 40 percent, and concentrations of other GHGs have grown significantly as well. As a result, global average temperatures have risen both on land and in the oceans, with observable impacts already occurring that presage severe changes in the future. Polar ice is melting at record rates. Glaciers around the globe are in retreat. Storms, including hurricanes, are increasing in intensity. Ecosystems around the world already are reacting as plant and animal species struggle to adapt to a shifting climate.

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Scientists project that if the increase in man-made GHG emissions continues unabated, additional warming of 2 to 11.5°F over the next century is likely, depending on how much more GHGs are emitted and how strongly the climate system responds to them.
Although the range of uncertainty for future temperatures is large, even the lower end of the range is likely to have many undesirable effects on natural and human systems. Water supplies in some critical areas will dwindle as snow and ice disappear. Sea levels will rise, threatening coastal populations. Droughts and floods will become more common.
And hurricanes and other powerful storms will cause more and more damage.

Agricultural production could increase with slight warming in northern countries but is already declining in many low-latitude countries and will decrease everywhere with higher levels of warming due to changes in precipitation, weather extremes, and the spread of crop pests and diseases. Changing weather patterns will also change the distribution and incidence of insect-borne and waterborne diseases, such as malaria and cholera. Human health will be jeopardized by all of these changes. Changes in climate also pose substantial national security risks by expanding the number of weather-related humanitarian missions for our military, by opening up new areas for military operations (e.g., the Arctic) and by putting at risk military facilities located in coastal areas.

A growing body of scientific research has documented that climate change is already underway and some dangerous impacts have already occurred. Avoiding more severe impacts in the future requires large reductions in human-induced GHG emissions in the coming decades. Consequently, many governments have committed to reduce their countries’ emissions by between 50 and 85 percent below 2000 levels by 2050. If achieved, global emissions reductions on this scale will reduce the costs of damages and of adaptation, and will dramatically reduce the probability of catastrophic outcomes. While committing to and achieving such reductions must be a high priority, adapting to climate change that is now unavoidable is also important. Effective adaptation planning while simultaneously reducing emissions is a major challenge that requires unprecedented cooperation and participation throughout the world.

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Adaptation

Reducing emissions will decrease both the rate of change and the magnitude of those changes in climate and their related impacts. However, CO2 and other GHGs can remain in the atmosphere for decades to many centuries after they are emitted, meaning that today’s emissions will affect the climate far into the future. As a result, the Earth is committed to additional warming no matter what actions are taken to reduce emissions now.
With global emissions on the rise, adaptation efforts are necessary to reduce the cost and severity of climate change impacts for the next several decades.

Recent scientific research demonstrates that many aspects of climate change are happening earlier or more rapidly than climate models and experts initially projected…All of these impacts will affect food and water supplies, natural resources, ecosystems, and human life and property (see Table 1)…Every level of government, as well as resource managers, industry, and community leaders, has a role to play in assessing the climate vulnerability of both natural and man-made systems. Together, these stakeholders must take action to help these systems adapt and adequately prepare for unavoidable climate impacts.

Climate change is a real problem, but it also has real solutions. Some of its effects are already inevitable and will require some degree of adaptation. But humanity has the power—working collectively, individually, and at all levels of society—to take serious action to reduce global emissions and thus the threat posed by climate change. The tools exist to begin addressing this challenge now. Throughout the United States and the world, many political, business, and community leaders already are working to prevent the consequences of global warming by lowering GHG emissions. They are acting because they understand that the science points to an inescapable conclusion: addressing climate change is no longer a choice but an imperative.

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Reducing Emissions: What It Will Take

…While there is no “silver bullet” technological solution, many tools already exist for addressing climate change, and new options on the horizon could potentially yield dramatic reductions in worldwide emissions of GHGs…

Right now, the true costs of GHG emissions are not reflected in the marketplace. Policies that send a clear price signal to the market by putting a financial cost on GHG emissions would make many low-carbon technologies commercially competitive with traditional GHG-emitting technologies. Moreover, putting a price on carbon would spur companies to invest in developing new low-carbon technologies. Governments, however, will also need to invest in research and development to advance technologies for the future.

Significant emission reductions will require a transformation in global energy use through a combination of short-term and long-term commitments… Real reductions are possible today, but we also need more advanced technology to achieve the reductions required to avoid the most serious consequences of climate change…

There will certainly be costs associated with adopting these technologies and transforming the way we consume energy. Yet, addressing climate change also offers enormous economic opportunities, starting with the opportunity to avoid the considerable costs that climate change will pose to societies and businesses. In addition, the global technology revolution that is needed to protect the climate will create new economic opportunities for businesses and workers, as well as the localities, states, and nations that successfully position themselves as centers of innovation and technology development for a low-carbon world. However, innovation will not happen quickly enough or at the necessary scale without government action to push the development of new technologies and to pull them into mainstream use. A comprehensive strategy of economy-wide and sector-specific policies is needed. Key policy solutions include investments in science and technology research; efficiency standards for buildings, vehicles, and appliances; and perhaps most importantly, an overall limit on GHG emissions.

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Embracing Climate Solutions

In the absence of a strong U.S. federal policy, leaders in business and government at all levels have begun taking significant steps to address climate change. Current efforts cannot deliver the level of reduction needed to protect the climate, but they provide a foundation for future action, as well as proof that progress is possible without endangering economic success.

Business Solutions. Leading businesses around the globe are taking action to reduce their impact on the climate and advocate for sensible policy solutions. Recent years have seen a shift in corporate approaches to climate change from focusing exclusively on risk management and protecting the bottom line to the pursuit of new business opportunities and sustainable practices. Improvements in energy efficiency, for example, can lead to reduced costs; sales of climate-friendly products and services are growing rapidly; and new markets for carbon reductions are taking off. Figure 4 shows a ranking of private sector activities that benefit the bottom line based on a Pew Center on Global Climate Change poll of 33 major corporations.

Many corporate leaders increasingly believe that with the growing certainty about the risks of climate change, future regulation is inevitable. Companies want a head start over their competitors in learning how to reduce their emissions. Others in the private sector are responding to growing pressure from investor and consumer groups for disclosure of climate-related risks and integration of climate concerns into companies’ core business strategies. There may also be considerable risk to a company’s brand and reputation if customers, partners, investors, and/or employees do not view the firm as responsible with regard to climate change. The potential physical impact of climate change on business operations is another concern among corporate leaders.

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Recognizing both that government action is inevitable and policy decisions made on this issue will have substantial implications for future profits, business leaders increasingly are engaging with policymakers to help influence those decisions. Many of these business leaders favor approaches that level the playing field among companies, create more certainty for businesses, and spread responsibility for GHG emission reductions across all sectors of the economy….

International Action. Climate change requires a global response. Energy-related CO2 emissions have risen 145-fold since 1850 and are projected to increase another 36 percent by 2030. Most emissions come from a relatively small number of countries. An effective global strategy to avert dangerous climate change requires commitments and action by all the world’s major economies.

The United States, with 5 percent of the world’s population, is responsible for 17 percent of global GHG emissions. On an intensity basis (emissions per gross domestic product or GDP), U.S. emissions are significantly higher than the EU’s and Japan’s. On a per capita basis, U.S. emissions are more than twice as high as those of the EU and Japan (and three and a half times the world average). U.S. emissions are projected to remain largely flat through 2020. By comparison, emissions are projected to decline from current levels (2008) by about 4 percent in the EU and 57 percent in Japan by 2020.

Emissions are rising fastest in developing countries. China’s and India’s emissions are projected to grow compared to current levels by about 45 percent and 47 percent, respectively, by 2020. Annual emissions from all developing countries surpassed those of developed countries in 2004. Their per capita emissions, however, will remain much lower than those of developed countries. Despite being surpassed by China as the largest annual emitter of GHGs in 2006, the United States accounts for 30 percent of cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions since 1850 while China accounts for 9 percent.

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Cumulative emissions are an important measure because of the long-lasting nature of GHGs in the atmosphere. Although developing country emissions are rising, their cumulative emissions are not projected to reach those of developed countries for several more decades…

In 1992, countries signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) with the objective of avoiding dangerous human interference in the climate system (194 countries, including the United States, have ratified the agreement)…For the past 15 years, the primary thrust of negotiations within the UNFCCC has been the establishment, and then the extension, of a legally binding regime to reduce GHG emissions. This should remain the long-term objective…

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United States: Federal Action. To date, the federal government has not yet enacted a comprehensive set of policies to reduce GHG emissions. While several senators and representatives—both Democrats and Republicans—have introduced bills or proposed policies in the past few years, in 2009 the House of Representatives became the first body of Congress to ever pass a comprehensive climate and clean energy bill. Despite this success, the Senate did not pass such a bill, and it still remains for Congress to enact comprehensive legislation. Federal policies and programs are already in place, however, that are making a difference at least in slowing the growth of GHG emissions and in promoting low-carbon technologies.

The year 2010 marks the first time for which large GHG emitters must report their emissions to the government. In addition, following a Supreme Court case establishing that the government could regulate GHGs under the existing air pollution law, the federal government has started regulating GHG emissions from vehicles and new large sources, such as new power plants. Efforts to reduce GHG emissions were further aided in 2009 when the economic stimulus bill included roughly $80 billion in funding, tax credits, and other financial incentives for energy efficiency and clean energy—ranging from home weatherization programs to research on “breakthrough” energy technologies.

These recent federal policy developments build upon existing federal policies to promote energy efficiency, develop and deploy new technologies, and reduce emissions…Existing federal policies have played important roles…[F]ederal policymakers can craft a comprehensive approach to cost-effectively reduce emissions. Moreover, increased federal funding for research, development, and demonstration can accelerate the pace of clean technology innovation.

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United States: State Action. The lack of comprehensive action on the climate issue at the federal level has prompted many states to seek their own solutions both individually and cooperatively. Nearly every state is currently engaged in working in some way on climate solutions. By taking action to address climate change, U.S. states are fulfilling their role in American democracy as “policy laboratories,” developing initiatives that serve as models for federal action…

…Thirty-six states have completed comprehensive climate action plans, or are in the process of revising or developing one, and 23 states actually have set quantitative targets or goals…Regional climate initiatives, including three cap-and-trade programs are underway among U.S. states and Canadian provinces…31 states have adopted policies that reduce emissions from electricity generation by requiring that utilities generate a specified share of power from renewable sources. States also are directing public funds to energy efficiency and renewable energy projects and adopting new standards for power plant emissions and energy efficiency. In the transportation sector, states are adopting policies and standards to promote efficient, low-emission vehicles (including electric vehicles) and climate-friendly fuels. They are also working on smart growth, zoning reform, and transit-oriented development. Agricultural policies also are being redesigned to promote biomass energy as another solution to climate change…State action is important, but strong and coherent federal policies are needed to ensure consistency and to mobilize climate solutions throughout the economy and the country.

Local Action. State leaders are hardly alone in their movement to address climate change. Across the country and the world, local governments are implementing their own policies aimed at reducing GHG emissions. Localities have a strong history of climate action and continue to mount responses to climate change that are resulting in emissions cuts. Cities are working together to achieve their goals through a number of programs and mechanisms, including the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, the Clinton Climate Initiative, and the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement, which has experienced dramatic growth in participation (see Figure 6)…However, as is the case with action by the states, local policies are no substitute for broader action at the federal and international level.

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The Path Forward

The science is clear. Climate change is happening, and the time to act is now. While the actions of local and state governments, nations, and business leaders are significant, climate change remains a global problem requiring a global solution. Ultimately, a fair and effective international approach must engage all of the world’s major economies and allow enough flexibility for all countries to contribute. Substantive U.S. engagement at the international level is crucial to the success of the global effort. On the domestic front, the federal government needs to adopt policies that reduce GHG emissions. With comprehensive federal policy and constructive international engagement, the United States can harness the power of markets to drive innovation and protect the climate.