QUICK NEWS, 3-2: BIG THINGS FOR NEWEST THIN FILM; WIND COMES SWEEPING DOWN THE PLAIN; ANOTHER TRANSMISSION SOLUTION; HOW TO PAY FOR OCEAN WIND

BIG THINGS FOR NEWEST THIN FILM
NanoMarkets forecasts CIGS market will grow to US $3.7 billion in 2016
2011 February 25, (Display+)

"…According to NanoMarkets' [latest market analysis and forecast of the CIGS photovoltaics business], sales of CIGS are expected to grow from around $615 million this year to reach $3.7 billion in 2016. The report also notes that there are now more than 50 producers in the CIGS market, more than double the number of a few years back.

"NanoMarkets notes that this somewhat bullish forecast is based in part on the fact that CIGS is the only commercialized PV technology that can combine conversion efficiencies that are close to conventional PV with the thinness, and light-weight associated with thin-film PV."

CIGS: Already starting to rise in the market (click to enlarge)

"In addition, the report notes that the prospects for CIGS have been bolstered by the willingness of large firms such as Intel, Shell, Dow Chemical and LG to invest significant amounts of capital in CIGS even during a recessionary period.

"The market for conventional PV panels using CIGS as an absorber material is expected to reach $2.9 billion in 2016. However, NanoMarkets expects that 2016 will be when significant revenue will be generated by CIGS-based building-integrated PV (BIPV) with sales of this technology expected to reach $721 million by 2016."


WIND COMES SWEEPING DOWN THE PLAIN
Oklahoma: The next big US wind hub? Wind Energy Update speaks to Sandy Pratt, Deputy Director, Oklahoma Department of Commerce about how Oklahoma is positioning itself to become a strategic location for companies looking to enter the US wind energy sector
Rikki Stancich, 28 February 2011 (Wind Energy Update)

"Located in the heart of North America’s wind corridor, Oklahoma has about 2.3 times more wind energy potential per square mile than Texas. According to NREL, between now and 2030, Oklahoma has the potential to scale up from its current number 9 ranking for wind capacity, to number 2 in the US…"

[Oklahoma Department of Commerce Deputy Director Sandy Pratt:] "Last year we passed in the Energy Security Act…[stipulating] that by 2015, 15% of energy generated in Oklahoma must be from renewable energy sources…This is a very aggressive target…given that currently we source roughly 5% of energy from renewable energy…[A transferable] state production tax credit…is available for wind projects…[A] net metering incentive [is] in place…[allowing] homeowners who install wind or solar…[to] sell any excess from what they generate back to the grid."

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[Oklahoma Department of Commerce Deputy Director Sandy Pratt:] "We are building out a supply chain for manufacturers to locate jobs and invest in Oklahoma through the Quality Jobs programme, which provides a 5% cash back of payroll in quarterly cash payments…Oklahoma companies that wish to enter the wind sector (from aerospace or oil and gas – companies that have experience, equipment and skills sets that are transferable to the wind energy sector)…[are linked] with existing companies in the wind sector…[to help them] enter the market…We have five training and education programmes in wind and in solar, in safety training, maintenance & repair and operations…at technology centres in central and western parts of the state where the wind resource levels are highest…250 citizens have taken part in and completed wind programs…over the past two years."

[Oklahoma Department of Commerce Deputy Director Sandy Pratt:] "Oklahoma is…one of the easiest states for wind farm development…[There is an] abundance of land [with a] very good wind resource. There is a lot of education and awareness among the general population…There are groups that educate landowners on leases and contracts…Work carried out by meteorologists at Weather Sphere has important implications for wind energy developers, on both the siting and production predictability of wind farms…[T]he Oklahoma Wind Power Initiative (OWPI), a long-standing research project between the University of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State University…investigates and promotes state wind resources, assists landowners and developers in determining capacity… [advocates] for wind energy development…offers economic analysis and information to potential wind energy investors and promotes networking among Oklahoma's wind power stakeholders."

Mapped and ready to develop (click to enlarge)

[Oklahoma Department of Commerce Deputy Director Sandy Pratt:] "We are rolling out a massive, aggressive marketing campaign, globally. We want to be the location for OEMs and we have been successful in attracting manufacturers, but we are also targeting O&M providers. Many turbines in the US are going out of warranty now and Oklahoma has a long history of O&M as well as transferable skills and knowledge for the oil and gas sector…[O]f the 50 projects we are currently working, approximately 25 are renewable energy projects, and the majority of those are wind-related…[T]he pipeline of wind projects has continued to be strong, even though financial markets are soft and companies are slower to take decisions…We work all aspects of the supply chain…"

[Oklahoma Department of Commerce Deputy Director Sandy Pratt:] "Transmission lines [is the challenge]. We are continuing to address this issue and nationally it is a high priority. Oklahoma gas and electric has been a leader in building transmission lines and in linking up key wind resource areas. It has undertaken several key investments…Clean Line Energy Partners are planning several projects, including a proposed 800-mile transmission line across Oklahoma and Arkansas to the Memphis area. This will provide a huge boost for developers…[Congress must make] sure the Production Tax Credit...[is] extended for more than on a session-to-session basis…The uncertainty that currently surrounds the PTC puts a burden on businesses and investors…[Congress should also create] more equity for the build-out of transmission infrastructure."


ANOTHER TRANSMISSION SOLUTION
U.S. Senate Introduces Controversial Transmission Cost-Allocation Legislation
Michael Bates, 21 February 2011 (Solar Industry)

"A group of U.S. senators has introduced legislation that adds a new voice to the ongoing dialogue among the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and other stakeholders related to transmission cost allocation.

"The Electric Transmission Customer Protection Act is intended to prevent FERC from applying cost-recovery mechanisms for interstate transmission projects beyond where the upgrades will have an immediate, direct benefit.

Somebody’s gotta do something (click to enlarge)

"This position is at odds with a current proposed rule in FERC's docket that…that spreads infrastructure costs regionally among a wide range of consumers. The senators claim the commission's rule would…[impose costs] outside of the area immediately serviced by the new transmission…"

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"The act - put forth by [Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore.] and U.S. Sens. Bob Corker, R-Tenn.; Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska; Richard Burr, R-N.C.; and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. – would…[protect consumers from paying for projects] that serve no benefit for their state or region…

"The proposed measure drew swift reaction from the industry…Jim Hoecker, counsel to industry trade group WIRES and a former FERC chairman…[said the legislation] is unnecessary…[and will] thwart needed investment in the high-voltage grid…curtail the nation's ability to develop domestic energy…[and limit] FERC's [long-standing] authority to appropriately allocate transmission costs…"


HOW TO PAY FOR OCEAN WIND
Non-recourse finance set to increase in offshore wind sector; As more offshore wind projects get built, non-recourse financing seems to be the way forward.
Alison Ebbage, 16 February 2011 (Wind Energy Update)

"…Non-recourse funding for offshore projects stands at between 10 and 20 per cent, compared to 60 per cent for onshore sites, according to Jerome Guillet, managing director at Green Giraffe Energy Bankers…[E]stimates show that in Europe 3-4 GW will be built on a yearly basis…[T]hat is some €15bn of capital, of which €10bn needs to come in the form of senior debt or guarantees. Because investment costs of individual projects can go from €500million to €1.5billion, traditional corporate financiers and projects’ parent utilities companies may struggle to provide finance.

"Non-recourse finance thus seems like an ideal alternative because it is based on the near certainty of the lender recouping the loan. Several major offshore wind projects…have already been built on non-recourse finance deals, providing a blueprint for the future…[P]artners can be multilaterals, commercial banks and the utilities…[F]or the lender the attraction is a watertight project that…will bring the [ROI]…"

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"…[N]on-recourse finance works on a low margin and fixed return basis with the loan limited to what has been contracted right at the start and no liability for any cost overruns. As a consequence lenders like to be very involved in negotiations, even at the development stage, and require permits, construction, and maintenance contracts and the like to be in place and robust before they will lend…[D]evelopment costs, between four and seven per cent…are down to the sponsor…The construction period takes between one and a half to two years and risks are mitigated by strong BoP…turbine supply contracts…interface agreements…[and] management…

"But in-depth involvement by non-recourse participants can be difficult…[I]n the UK… utilities and banks have had very different approaches to the contracting process…Banks are willing to lend only if the project is seen as low-risk…[I]n today’s economic climate lenders are unwilling to take big risks especially on the large-scale offshore projects. This can make non-recourse structures look like the best and sometimes only option."

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"But as the number of projects increases and confidence returns to the broader marketplace, the number of deals and participants in the market will increase…[T]he amount of lenders will also increase…[C]urrently only a few players such as Dexia and Rabobank can be said to be very involved in this market with another 15 to 20 lending small amounts. The more potential participants, the faster the market will develop - especially if deals are put together by a smaller number of players loaning a greater amount, making coordination far easier…

"Markets that have favourable regulatory regimes will benefit most. Currently Germany, the UK and Belgium appeal most to lenders as all have regulation in place to support offshore windfarm development as well as subsidies such as feed in tariffs (FiTs) or Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs), which offer a guaranteed output price and thus reduce risk further for lenders…[But] the regulatory regime to develop offshore wind is the key as it guarantees stability and industry longevity…"