QUICK NEWS, 3-3: SURGING ASIAN SUN; MIDWESTERNERS FOR WIND; CAP&TRADE FUNDS NEW ENERGY; BET ON GEOTHERMAL

SURGING ASIAN SUN
Asian Electronics Giants Aim for Big Slice of PV Pie
February 17, 2011 (IMS Research)

"Asian electronics giants…continue to enter the growing PV market, transferring their expertise in other cost-driven fields and are aiming to capture a major share of the market and IMS Research predicts that Asia’s share of PV cell production will reach nearly 85% by the end of 2011. Although the market is currently rife with fears of a module oversupply, these large Taiwanese and Korean electronics suppliers…have all recently announced impressive expansion plans…

"IMS Research predicts that following the rapid PV cell and module capacity increases in 2010 when demand boomed in major European markets, lower incentive rates and the slowing of installation growth, will lead to an oversupply of PV modules in 2011. In particular, small Tier 2 suppliers are predicted to be most affected, with larger Tier 1 suppliers still able to sell the majority of their products."

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"However, the long-term outlook remains positive…[T]otal industry demand will continue to grow at double-digit rates on average for the next 4 years. As a result, a continuous stream of hopeful new entrants exists…[T]he most successful of these are likely to be these consumer electronics manufacturers…AUO Optronics, a Taiwanese supplier most known for its flat-panel displays recently broke ground on a 1.4 GW cell production Joint Venture with SunPower…LCD TV giant, Samsung recently announced a joint-venture producing polysilicon with MEMC…Taiwan Semiconductor also plans to begin offering both thin film and crystalline modules…[following] investments and partnerships with Motech, Stion and Centrosolar…

"IMS Research estimates that nearly 80% of PV modules were produced in Asia in 2010 and predicts this figure will continue to rise in the future."


MIDWESTERNERS FOR WIND
Indiana poll finds overwhelming bipartisan support for wind energy, as Legislature weighs 10% requirement
February 28, 2011 (American Wind Energy Association)

"…[A]n Indiana poll…[shows] strong and deep bipartisan public support for increasing wind farm development in the state through the passage of legislation calling for 10 percent of electricity sold in Indiana to come from renewable energy by 2020… as the Indiana House and Senate prepare to take up energy legislation, Senate Bill 251, which currently does not create any market for renewable energy…

"The [Public Opinion Strategies] poll found that 77 percent of Indiana voters support legislation creating a requirement for 10 percent renewable energy by the year 2020. An impressive 47 percent of voters "strongly" support such legislation, and just 16 percent oppose it. The results signal support among Hoosiers for harnessing the economic-development benefits of wind power and diversifying the state's energy mix in a way that can save consumers money. A 10 percent renewable energy requirement would spur construction of approximately six new wind farms and create thousands of jobs…"

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"The poll reflects recent national polls showing that as much as 89 percent of Americans want more renewable energy…77 percent of Indiana voters support legislation requiring that 10 percent of electricity sold in the state come from renewable energy by 2020…A strong 66 percent of Republicans statewide support a 10-percent renewable energy requirement.

"Overall support for this legislation was above 70 percent in all regions of Indiana and between 77 percent and 79 percent in urban, suburban, and rural areas of the state…Statewide voter support rose to 84 percent when told that a 10 percent requirement would spur construction on six new wind farms in the next two years, creating thousands of new jobs."

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"Support for legislation rose to 85 percent when voters were told that Indiana's neighbors have secured long-term electricity contracts from wind power that costs significantly less than the average per kilowatt-hour price Hoosiers currently pay.

"Voter support for legislation rose to 83 percent when voters were informed that more than half of the wind energy generated in the state is currently used to deliver power to neighboring states with renewable energy requirements…"


CAP&TRADE FUNDS NEW ENERGY
Northeast cap and trade program reinvests in clean energy
Beth Dakey, February 28, 2011 (Boston Globe)

"The vast amount of money raised by the nation’s first mandatory carbon cap and trade system is going back into clean energy, a new report by the program shows.

"The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative began two and a half years ago to reduce heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions from power plants ten percent by 2018 in ten Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States – including all of New England."

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"Power plants buy emission allowances auctioned off by states for every ton of carbon dioxide they emit, with plants that emit larger amounts having to buy more allowances than cleaner ones. The number of available allowances will decrease as the overall cap is lowered, raising their price and, with hope, encouraging plants to invest in clean technologies to avoid the higher cost of polluting.

"The report found that the ten states are investing 52 percent of a total $789.2 million raised so far by the auction into energy efficiency, 11 percent into renewable energy, 14 percent in energy bill payment assistance and another 1 percent for other greenhouse gas reduction programs…[S]ome of the money’s good is amplified by giving grants to communities to invest in clean energy initiatives…"


BET ON GEOTHERMAL
Geothermal power stocks offer steep discount to oil
Martin Mittelstaedt, March 1, 2011 (Globe and Mail)

"Investors looking to buy energy dirt cheap may want to consider an unconventional asset – shares of geothermal power producers…[R]eserves of energy in the ground [are priced at] the equivalent of about $5 (U.S.) per barrel of oil…That’s a huge discount to the…current [oil] market values of around $100 a barrel…

"…[Wellington West Capital Markets] analysts concluded that geothermal companies offer energy exposure that is ‘significantly undervalued’ by the market, even though they think the reserves should trade at a premium to oil in the ground, based on their view that geothermal is a cleaner power source than hydrocarbons…[T]he firm’s research is one of the first comparisons of how geothermal energy reserves stack up on an energy equivalent basis against petroleum…"

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"Geothermal companies have some similarities to oil producers, so the firm’s comparison isn’t as far fetched as it may sound. Both drill deep into the ground looking for energy, but instead of hydrocarbons, geothermal firms seek places with extremely hot rocks from which steam can be extracted to run turbines and produce electricity. In its analysis, Wellington converted these in-the-ground reserves of thermal power into the equivalent amount of energy derived from oil.

"As with petroleum producers, the riskiest point for a geothermal energy company is when drilling. A company can chew through money trying to find the hot rocks it’s looking for. Even after a discovery is made, many additional wells are needed to prove the size of the heat source. But once a company determines its reserves and negotiates a contract to sell its power to a nearby utility, there is no difference between a geothermal operation and a conventional electricity generating station…"

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"Most of the world’s large geothermal companies with public listings are in North America, with four in Canadian markets and one in the U.S. There are a larger number of firms in Australia, but their capitalizations are tiny and they’re more speculative. Wellington’s analysis was based on the reserves at five North American firms: Magma Energy (MXY-T1.250.032.46%), Nevada Geothermal (NGP-X0.660.023.13%), Ram Power (RPG-T1.350.053.85%) , U.S. Geothermal (GTH-T0.980.011.03%) and Ormat Technologies (ORA-N24.54-0.51-2.04%). They’re rated as buys by the firm, except for Nevada Geothermal, which it ranks as a speculative buy, and Ormat, a U.S.-based firm it doesn’t rate.

"The evaluation assumed no value for any carbon credits the geothermal firms might receive if governments adopt measures to reduce emissions…[Unlike] wind and solar…[geothermal] power plants tapping into heat in the ground can run flat out, all the time…Once a geothermal generating station is up and running, it doesn’t face the risk that commodity prices will rise, which can hurt profits at a conventional oil- or gas-fired power plant…[And] regulatory support for geothermal energy is growing…"