SOLAR LIGHTS UP AS NUCLEAR BURNS OUT

As Japan's Plight Unfolds, Solar Sector Sees Boost Amid Nuclear Concerns
Jessica Lillian, 17 March 2011 (Solar Industry)

"The March 11 earthquake and subsequent tsunami…leading to a potential nuclear catastrophe…has re-emphasized the risks posed by nuclear energy…[and] is translating into stronger expectations for solar energy and other forms of renewable energy this year and over the long term…[It] has led to immediate performance gains for solar stocks…[and] German solar stocks have fared particularly well…

"Even China, whose reliance on nuclear energy was seen as necessary for the country to continue to meet its sizeable growth needs, suspended approval of 28 planned nuclear plants…[following] Chinese Premier Wen Jiabo's conversation with top-level advisors regarding Japan's ongoing nuclear emergency."

Japan is both an importer and exporter to the U.S. PV industry. (click to enlarge)

"…[Experts say] China will nevertheless forge ahead with nuclear power plans over the long term. Due to the inherent limitations of coal, natural gas and renewables, nuclear remains the only viable solution for China's long-term energy needs…Other national governments with funds previously slated for nuclear plants could reallocate that money for solar power plant development…[and] create incremental global demand for solar this year…

"Meanwhile, the PV industry is also assessing possible solar supply-chain risks stemming from disaster damage and production stoppages at Japanese factories that provide PV materials, especially solar silicon…Among Japan's three largest polysilicon producers - Tokuyama, Mitsubishi and M. Setek - only M. Setek, owned by AUO, has sustained major disaster damage...[It] has suspended production at its [Soma Fukushima] factory…"

Much of Japan's import and export role is in polysilicon. (click to enlarge)

"…[The hampered Japanese economy] may cause some minor shipment and short-term pricing issues for PV components…[but the world] supply-chain impact…is expected to be limited, as Japan accounts for less than 10% of total polysilicon, wafer and cell production capacity…SunPower [reported] that although some of its supply-chain partners are experiencing production disruptions, none has sustained major facility damage, and alternate sources of polysilicon are available…

"…Japan-based firms such as Kyocera, Sanyo and Mitsubishi dominate the country's PV market, and foreign companies have little economic exposure [there]…Western/Chinese solar companies such as Yingli [may] grow share at the expense of [affected] Japanese players…"