QUICK NEWS, 4-25: EV TRIUMPHANT; THE ORGANIC PV MARKET; OPPORTUNITIES IN SMART GRID; LAND FOR WIND

EV TRIUMPHANT
Director Chris Paine On ‘Revenge of the Electric Car’
Anthony Kaufman, April 21, 2011 (Wall Street Journal)

"In 2003, Chris Paine helped conduct a funeral for the electric car, in memoriam of the loss of General Motors’ battery-powered EV1. His subsequent documentary, 2006′s Who Killed the Electric Car?…examined the premature death of the electric car industry.

"Now Paine is back with a new film, Revenge of the Electric Car, a more optimistic look at the resurgence of the plug-in automobile. Focusing primarily on the makers of the Chevrolet Volt, the Nissan Leaf and the Tesla Roadster, the film [had] its world premiere Friday night [in New York City]…"

Trailer

From RevengeElectric via YouTube

"While getting ready to launch both the new film, and an unrelated new website, Counterspill.org, which aims to raise awareness about oil and other non-renewable energy-related disasters, Paine spoke about his own electric cars and automakers’ investment in their new zero-emission fleets."

[[Chris Paine, Director, EV films:] “Dr. Paul MacCready, who was one of my childhood engineering heroes, developed bicycle-powered airplanes in the 1970s. I had heard he had designed an electric car for General Motors…[T]wo years later, the cars went on lease, and I leased one. In a month, I was almost always driving my electric car…And I thought, America had trumped the world again on technology. So when the program got shut down, I thought this is crazy. Yes, there were some problems, the battery wasn’t as good as it could be, but this could have been a huge niche…[W]e had an electric car funeral, which got some good coverage, but all of it was about the arrival of hybrids. So I thought, let’s make a documentary about this.”


THE ORGANIC PV MARKET
Organic Photovoltaics May Have Only Limited Potential In Solar Market
19 April 2011 (Lux Research via Solar Industry)

"Commercial uses for organic photovoltaic (OPV) modules will almost certainly materialize over the next decade, driven by unique form factors and the potential for lower costs, according to a new report from Lux Research…[but] comparatively poor conversion efficiencies and short lifetimes mean that it will not compete with conventional solar technologies, limiting its market potential…[to] $159 million in 2020.

"…OPV modules…use organic (carbon-containing) polymers or molecules to convert light to electricity. The report calculates adoption potential for OPV's two main technology categories - bulk heterojunction (BHJ) OPV devices and dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) - in five different [niche] market segments: building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), developing world applications, defense, consumer electronics and signage…"

Dye sensitized BIPV (click to enlarge)

"…[T]otal market size addressable…[in potential market shares] for both BHJ OPV and DSSCs… reach [97 MW and $159 million in 2020] on the back of BIPV and defense…[D]efense signifies the largest market, with BIPV close behind. BHJ technology dominates early, but as flexible DSSC devices mature, these devices are expected to gain to capture 53% of the market in 2020."

Schematic of an Organic PV solar cell (click to enlarge)

"…[Three variations of] BIPV provides niches for both BHJ and DSSC…[1] flexible membranes for roofing and shade structures (e.g., awnings)…[2] solar shingles for pitched roofing, and [3] rigid windows and fade elements. BIPV overall will grow to 27 MW of demand and a $44 million market, with around two-thirds of that based on flexible membranes and most of the balance from windows and facades. BHJ takes 47% of the market here in megawatts, but only 39% in revenues.

"Defense applications are driven by portable power for soldiers. The ease of integrating OPV into certain flexible structures and the ability to pattern it could help set it apart for some applications, such as integration into tents and even uniforms, and allow it to gain some market share…In defense applications, OPV will expand to 34 MW in 2020, pulling in $64 million in revenues - split 60:40 between DSSC and BHJ..."


OPPORTUNITIES IN SMART GRID
Study: Smart Grid Job Market Has Huge Potential
19 April 2011 (Renew Grid)

"The smart grid has already created thousands of U.S. jobs and has the potential to create many more, concludes a new report by a Duke University research team.

"The Duke researchers studied 125 leading U.S. smart grid firms to assess their potential role in creating jobs in areas such as information technology, core communications, smart hardware, energy services, energy management, telecom service and system integration. They estimate that U.S. suppliers for smart grid technologies have already created more than 17,000 U.S. jobs."

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"…U.S. Smart Grid: Finding New Ways to Cut Carbon and Create Jobs] notes valuable export opportunities to be tapped by U.S. firms…[and] highlights well-established manufacturers that not only provide new devices to the smart grid market, but have also found new niches in software and services.

"…[The report also] identifies 334 U.S. locations in 39 states that are already developing or manufacturing products for a smart grid. The region with the largest number of sites is the Southeast, with California having the most sites of any one state. Nationwide, utilities now have more than 200 smart grid projects under way…"


LAND FOR WIND
Win-Win for Wind and Wildlife: A Vision to Facilitate Sustainable Development
Joseph M. Kiesecker, et. al., April 2011 (PloS One)

"…Wind energy offers the potential to reduce carbon emissions while increasing energy independence and bolstering economic development. However, wind energy has a larger land footprint per Gigawatt (GW) than most other forms of energy production…Species that require large unfragmented habitats and those known to avoid vertical structures are particularly at risk…Developing energy on disturbed lands rather than placing new developments within large and intact habitats would reduce cumulative impacts to wildlife…

"…The U.S. Department of Energy [DOE] estimates that it will take 241 GW of terrestrial based wind development on approximately 5 million hectares to reach 20% electricity production for the U.S. by 2030. We estimate there are ~7,700 GW of potential wind energy available across the U.S., with ~3,500 GW on disturbed lands…[A] disturbance-focused development strategy would avert the development of ~2.3 million hectares of undisturbed lands while generating the same amount of energy…Wind subsidies targeted at favoring low-impact developments and creating avoidance and mitigation requirements that raise the costs for projects impacting sensitive lands could improve public value for both wind energy and biodiversity conservation."

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"…Within the United States, the world's largest cumulative producer of greenhouse gases, societal concerns have shaped energy policy… DOE envisions the U.S. producing 20% of its electricity from wind by 2030, as outlined in [0% Wind Energy by 2030 (20% vision) ]…Meeting the DOE 20% vision (~241 Gigawatts of on-shore wind with an additional 64 Gigawatts of off-shore wind) would result in 5 million hectares of impacted land, an area roughly the size of Florida, with an additional 18,000 kilometers of new transmission lines…

"[Wind] is one of the fastest-growing renewable energy sectors…This growth is manifested in arrays of turbines that cover large areas…Wind “farms” have a broad footprint and thus are highly susceptible to land use conflicts…[I]t is the increase in fragmentation and habitat loss associated with development that creates an important conservation challenge…[T]he Federal Endangered Species Act currently protects over 1300 species and another ~250 species are under consideration for protection. The majority of these species list habitat loss and fragmentation as the primary cause for federal protected status…Siting of wind development that avoids habitats important for biodiversity reduces the potential for significant habitat loss and fragmentation…"

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"In this study we examine patterns of wind energy potential in terrestrial landscapes that are already disturbed by human activities (e.g., agriculture, oil and gas development)…[T]his is the first to examine if renewable energy goals can be met on disturbed lands that could reduce conflict with wildlife. Our goal is to estimate the potential electricity generation capacity of lands of low value for biodiversity conservation rather than estimate impacts associated with wind farms and associated transmission…

"…Here we focus on the 31 states that comprise the majority of the DOE 20% vision, excluding states that have ≤1 GW of projected development…We calculated the area needed to meet DOE wind energy scenarios within each state, providing a broad overview of the potential for wind energy generation on disturbed lands, but did not attempt to predict where within each state wind energy development will take place…"