TODAY’S STUDY: CPV – A SOLAR POWER PLANT IN A PANEL

Concentrating Photovoltaic technology is the latest solar energy innovation to achieve large-scale commercial acceptance. It combines elements of solar power plant technology and elements of the familiar residential rooftop solar systems.

Like a solar power plant, it concentrates the light of the sun to a narrow focus. Like rooftop systems, it uses the sun’s light – and not the sun’s heat like solar power plants – to drive a flow of electrons out of light-active (photovoltaic, PV) materials into a wiring system that delivers electricity.

Panels that combine focusing lenses and PV materials are too costly to use in residential settings but can, because of much higher efficiencies than standard panels, be cost effective in utility-scale arrays.

As the study highlighted below reports, the new technology is beginning to find acceptance in the marketplace. Though this technology is not directed at retail consumers, it raises a question that has blocked solar energy’s growth since its inception: With technology always advancing, how does any consumer – from a utility to a homeowner – know when to buy in?

Buying a solar system is a big investment. Nobody, not a power company exec or a suburban environmentalist, wants to make such an expenditure only to learn there is something newer and better. That, however, is inevitable.

Waiting for solar technology to stop advancing – usually at the predictable rate of Moore’s Law – is like waiting to buy a cell phone or a computer or a car until it is certain there will be no new new thing. People who are waiting for those things to happen are still walking around looking for a phone booth and a mail box.

At a party over the weekend, a fellow talked to NewEnergyNews about his rooftop solar system. He bought it 20 years ago. It was very expensive, much higher above the retail power price than today’s technologies. Yet it long ago paid for itself and started generating free electricity. And because it has no moving parts and is composed of highly durable materials, the fellow said, he expects to get at least another 10 years of free electricity from it.

An old adage says that if it is hot and sunny and somebody needs shade, the best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago; the second best time is now. Buying solar is similar: For anybody who uses electricity, the best time to install a rooftop system is 20 years ago; the second best time is now.

Concentrating Photovoltaics 2011: Technology, Costs and Markets (sign-up required)
Brett Prior and Chitra Seshan, April 21, 2011 (Greentech Media Research)

Introduction

After decades of R&D, the concentrating photovoltaics (CPV) industry is finally breaking into the utility-scale solar market. GTM Research forecasts new CPV installations to grow from under 5 MW in 2010 to more than 1,000 MW globally by 2015. The key driver enabling CPV to win projects in high solar resource locations is CPV’s ability to provide developers with superior economics, as CPV has a lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) versus the non-concentrating PV alternatives.

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Currently, the CPV pipeline is dominated by three system manufacturers: Concentrix Solar, Amonix, and SolFocus. As shown in the chart below, Solar Developers and Independent Power Producers (IPPs), such as Tenaska Solar, Cogentrix, and Sol Orchard have recently partnered with these leading CPV companies to develop large-scale plants in the U.S…

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Global CPV Prjects By Stage And System Manufacturer

There are 289 MW of CPV projects in development with power purchase agreements (PPAs), and another 207MW under development awaiting contracts (or Feed-in-Tariff confirmation). These numbers are large compared with the installed CPV base of 28 MW, but the figures still pale in comparison to the annual installations of traditional non-concentrating PV, which was over 13,000 MW in 2010 alone.

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CPV Plants In Operation / Under Construction / Development (with PPA/FIT)

The US dominates the CPV pipeline with over 92% of the total contracted projects. This is largely due to aggressive RPS targets in the US West, which has pushed utilities to sign power purchase agreements (PPAs) with solar developers. Spain is the 2nd largest market with several large Amonix / Guascor Foton projects in operation since 2008/2009. Compared to flat-plate PV, CPV systems are cost advantaged in high solar resource locations – so countries such as Australia, Portugal, and Greece should continue to prove fertile ground for CPV projects.

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US Solar Pipeline in High Solar Resource US States by Developer Type

Of the 12,974 MW of signed solar Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) in the US, 73% have been signed with vertically integrated manufacturers (i.e. First Solar, BrightSource, etc.). Projects developed by these companies are very unlikely to consider using CPV, as their business model is to use their own equipment. Accordingly, CPV firms should focus their efforts on trying to convince Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and Solar Developers to use their systems.

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Largest Potential US Customers for CPV Systems

In order for CPV to succeed in the US, the developers of utility-scale solar plants need to select CPV systems over competing flat plate and CSP options. This figure lists the most active Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and Solar Developers in the US utility-scale solar space. These are the key potential customers for CPV systems - as they have over 2,600 MW in contracted solar projects - many of which could use CPV to fulfill the contract.