WORLD’S NEW ENERGY POTENTIAL DEFINED

UN says world could run on 100% renewable energy
Kathleen Zipp, may 24, 2011 (Solar Power Engineering)

"Close to 80% of the world‘s energy supply could be met by renewables by mid-century if backed by the right enabling public policies, according to a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Findings from over 120 researchers also indicate that the rising penetration of renewable energies could lead to… a cut of around one third in greenhouse gas emissions from business-as-usual projections…[This could] assist in keeping concentrations of greenhouse gases at 450 parts per million…[and hold] the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius – an aim recognized in the United Nations Climate Convention’s Cancun Agreements…

"The six renewable energy technologies reviewed…[were] Bioenergy, including energy crops; forest, agricultural and livestock residues and so called second generation biofuel…Direct solar energy including photovoltaics and concentrating solar power…Geothermal energy, based on heat extraction from the Earth‘s interior…Hydropower, including run-of-river, in-stream or dam projects with reservoirs…Ocean energy, ranging from barrages to ocean currents and ones which harness temperature differences in the marine realm…[and] Wind energy, including on- and offshore systems."

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"Over 160 existing scientific scenarios on the possible penetration of renewables by 2050, alongside environmental and social implications…[were] reviewed with four analyzed in-depth… in order to represent the full range…[of] possible future worlds, analyzing alternative pathways of socio-economic development and technological change…While the scenarios arrive at a range of estimates, the overall conclusions are that renewables will take an increasing slice of the energy market…The most optimistic of the four, in-depth scenarios projects renewable energy accounting for as much as 77% of the world‘s energy demand by 2050…77% is up from just under 13% of the total primary energy supply…in 2008. Each of the scenarios is underpinned by a range of variables such as changes in energy efficiency, population growth and per capita consumption. These lead to varying levels of total primary energy supply in 2050, with the lowest of the four scenarios seeing renewable energy accounting for a share of 15% in 2050…

"While the report concludes that the proportion of renewable energy will likely increase even without enabling policies, past experience has shown that the largest increases come with concerted policy efforts. Though in some cases renewable energy technologies are already economically competitive, the production costs are currently often higher than market energy prices…[I]f environmental impacts such as emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases were monetized and included in energy prices…renewable energy…[would be more] economically attractive. For most…costs have declined over the last decades and the authors expect significant technical advancements and further cost reductions in the future, resulting in a greater potential for climate change mitigation."

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"Public policies that recognize and reflect the wider economic, social and environmental benefits of renewable energies…will be key for meeting the highest renewables deployment scenarios…[A]dditional short-term and long-term integration efforts…[are also needed because studies] clearly show that combining different variable renewable sources, and resources from larger geographical areas [using advanced technologies to optimize the infrastructure capacity for balancing supply and demand] will be beneficial in smoothing the variability and decreasing overall uncertainty for the power system…

"…[T]he report shows that it is not the availability of the resource, but the public policies that will either expand or constrain renewable energy development over the coming decades. Developing countries have an important stake in this future—this is where most of the 1.4 billion people without access to electricity live yet also where some of the best conditions exist for renewable energy deployment…"