WORLD OIL PEAKING

IEA: Market needs more oil in third quarter
July 13, 2011 (Oil & Gas Journal)

"Growth in developing countries will cause worldwide oil demand to climb by 1.5 million b/d in 2012 to average 91 million b/d, the International Energy Agency said…Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)… oil demand is now projected at 45.7 million b/d in 2012…[D]emand in non-OECD countries…[will] average 45.3 million b/d. Non-OECD Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America will account for most of this growth. China will account for 30% of the increase, IEA said…

"The agency forecasts that driven largely by increased noncrude output, non-OPEC supply will climb to average 54 million b/d next year, up from this year’s 53.1 million b/d. A large portion of the incremental supply will come from Canadian oil sands-derived liquids, biofuels, natural gas liquids, and refinery processing gains…"

Do the math: 91 million b/d demand forecast, 88.2 million b/d supply forecast (click to enlarge)

"IEA forecasts that supply will climb by at least 50,000 b/d next year from Brazil, Canada, Australia, Colombia, China, and Yemen, while Oman, the US, Russia, and Ghana will add 30,000-50,000 b/d each…Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Sudan are forecast to post production declines next year, but Norway and the UK will see marginal growth of about 25,000 b/d each…

"Oil production capacity among OPEC producers, which has been down since this year’s first quarter as a result of Libya’s civil war, should recover in second-half 2012 and average 35.1 million b/d in fourth-quarter 2012…as Libya recovers and Iraq, UAE, Angola, and Algeria post capacity increases…Iran’s oil production capacity is set to fall by about 150,000 b/d to 3.55 million b/d by next year due to the country’s increasing isolation following harsher international sanctions implemented last year…"