GLOBAL SOLAR TO GROW

Solar in for strong second half, if financial crisis can be controlled
Raj Prabhu, 11 August 2011 (PV Magazine)

"The first half of 2011 has been less than stellar for photovoltaics, but there are indicators that demand will be much stronger in the second half. All bets are off, however, if the European debt crisis can't be managed, or if the U.S. falls back into recession…[and] subsidies are affected or funding gets tougher to secure.

"Module prices have fallen tremendously in the last few months from USD$1.80/W levels in the first quarter of 2011, to lows in the USD$1.20/W levels by the end of the second quarter - a significant price decrease in a very short time…[T]his steep drop in pricing…is anticipated to be the catalyst for accelerated demand in the second half…"

click to enlarge

"There are also several other possibilities that could fuel demand in the last two quarters…Germany announced that there will not be any additional feed-in tariff (FIT) cuts and China recently announced a solar FIT: an unexpected, yet positive boost for the industry.

"…[T]he emergence of new markets such as China, India, the U.K., Slovakia, and many other European countries…[should] supplement anticipated slowing in the German and Italian markets…Mercom Capital Group is forecasting a nominal growth of about ~15 percent over 2010, with the hope that there will be a demand rush in the second half of the year due to the price drops [increasing] internal rates of return (IRRs)…"