TODAY’S STUDY: GERMANY’S NEW ENERGY LIFELINE – WIND IN THE NORTH SEA

In the wake of the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima that is still unfolding, the Merkel government in Germany rendered one of the most courageous decisions to come from any government anywhere since World War II when it chose to abandon nuclear power entirely by 2022.

Two facts buoyed the decisiveness of German Chancellor Merkel, by training a physicist keenly familiar with the uncertainty principle: (1) The probability of a Fukushima-like incident, though small, is still too great to risk, considering the potential havoc and tragedy it would wreak; and (2) offshore wind technology is ready to tap the enormous potential of the ocean (the North Sea, in Germany’s case) and reap untold rewards.

Most world leaders are in denial of the first fact and essentially ignorant of the second.

Unlike most world leaders, President Obama is keenly aware of the potential of offshore wind, which is why his administration has pushed so hard to clear regulatory obstacles to its development. Readily exploitable ocean winds off the east coast, it is estimated, could provide more than all the electricity required by the dense population along the Eastern Seaboard.

As detailed in the road map highlighted below, North Sea wind could readily provide a third of the electricity needed by not only Germany but Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and the UK as well. That is significantly more electricity than any of those countries now get from nuclear energy.

Challenges to developing the resource remain but the road map indicates it is feasible for North Sea nations – if they work cooperatively – to take today’s 2 gigawatts of installed capacity to 30 gigawatts by 2020 and 135 gigawatts by 2030. Bigger turbines and supportive policies are already under development to meet the first challenges.

Further development in the North Sea will require the mastering of ocean wind science and engineering. Later in the process, a new trans-ocean transmission infrastructure and interconnecting power market management methods and technology will be needed.

But as the groundbreaking German initiative is about to prove over the next decade – to its own profit for turning itself into the world leader in a technology every nation with a coastline will sooner or later be buying into – life after nuclear energy can ultimately be as good as a day at the beach.

Roadmap to the deployment of offshore wind energy in the Central and Southern North Sea (2020 - 2030)
Karina Veum, Lachlan Cameron, Daniel Huertas Hernando, Magnus Korpås, August 2011, (WINDSPEED and Intelligent Energy Europe)

Executive Summary

This Roadmap represents the final deliverable of the WINDSPEED project. It has a dual objective. Firstly, it aims to present an ambitious but realistic target for offshore wind with minimum negative impacts on other sea functions present in the Central and Southern North Sea basin in the time frame to 2030. Secondly, it aims to identify actions and milestones required to achieve this target.

The North Sea countries – Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and the UK – are facing a number of challenges and opportunities in their quest for rapid expansion of offshore wind energy in the Central and Southern North Sea basin. The WINDSPEED project has carried out an assessment of (ambitious but realistic) deployment potentials under different scenarios to gain better insight into how key uncertainties can impact on OWE developments.

An early understanding of how different development perspectives influence challenges and opportunities, as well as uncertainties, will allow for better adaptation of policies and approaches to promote large scale offshore wind energy (OWE). This is particularly important at a time when OWE is strongly driven by EU and national policy needs in attempting to reach overall policy goals of a competitive, secure and sustainable energy system.

There is ample space in the Central and Southern North Sea. But many attractive areas for developing OWE within reasonable cost ranges are already occupied by other sea users. Moving OWE further from shore and into deeper waters not only drives costs up, but also raises the issue of the availability of deep sea technology components and the need for an offshore grid. To date, the North Sea countries will have developed a capacity of around 2 GW in the North Sea. It has taken a decade to get this far. Important lessons are being learnt and these must be taken into account in the development of OWE towards 2030.

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The WINDSPEED project concludes that a capacity of 135 GW of OWE in the Central and Southern North Sea is feasible by 2030. Assuming that the NREAP projections of around 32 GW for the six North Sea countries involved are achieved in 2020 (this also includes developments in additional sea basins), a capacity of 135 GW in the Central and Southern North Sea basin implies a growth of more than 100 GW in the time frame 2020 - 2030. Due to long lead times in developing offshore wind projects, changing the current pathway in the period up to 2020 may be difficult. This is, however, not the case for the period 2020 - 2030. A development of this magnitude will clearly require a different approach and policy framework regarding OWE deployment than what we see today.
To achieve 135 GW OWE in the Central and Southern North Sea by 2030, countries must be willing to both increase spatial prioritisation to OWE (closer to shore) and establish an offshore grid. In order to do so, greater coordination between countries is necessary.

The final WINDSPEED recommendations …[are]key actions, milestones and which stakeholders should take the lead in following up the necessary actions to achieve 135 GW of OWE by 2030…

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Introduction

A Roadmap is a dynamic and responsive plan, consisting of three key elements – a starting point, a destination and a route description – often triggered by the need and the will to follow a better pathway than the current one. This chapter gives a brief introduction to the rationale behind and structure of this WINDSPEED Roadmap, the approach taken to develop it and the involvement of stakeholders in doing so.

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Rationale – why a Roadmap to offshore wind deployment?

Offshore wind energy (OWE) is a newcomer to the sea, and many argue that it will play a key role in moving towards a sustainable energy system in Europe in 2020 and beyond. The EU energy system is challenged by global climate change threats, increasing dependency on energy imports as well as threats of supply disruptions from countries outside the EU. Faced with these challenges, the EU recently established a policy framework which includes a target of 20% share of renewable energy source (RES) by 2020.

OWE deployment is foreseen to expand dramatically in the years to come. This expansion is strongly driven by EU and national policies that aim to provide a low-carbon and reliable energy system. The European Commission anticipated, in its 2008 Communication on offshore wind energy (EC, 2008), that “Offshore wind can and must make a substantial contribution to meeting the EU's energy policy objectives through a very significant increase — in the order of 30-40 times by 2020 and 100 times by 2030 — in installed capacity compared to today”. The installed offshore wind capacity in Europe by end of 2008 was 1.5 GW. A hundredfold increase implies 150 GW by 2030. This target has also been presented by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA, 2009).

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OWE is more complex and costly than onshore wind. However, due to a combination of better wind resources and larger turbines, it provides higher energy yields. In addition, the sea offers more space and less public resistance. The latter is an increasing problem for wind energy onshore. Successful deployment of large scale OWE in the coming years requires additional preparation and adaptation of the current policy framework. In order to do this it is necessary to understand the constraints (spatial, policy, growth, grid and market integration) on the realistic potential for OWE in a given sea basin, in this case the Central and Southern North Sea. This is a precondition for designing transparent, stable and favourable framework conditions in order for OWE to fully develop its realisable potential. These are key focus areas of the WINDSPEED project.

The Central and Southern North Sea is an attractive sea basin for large scale deployment of OWE, and a hotspot for past and ongoing developments in offshore activities in general. At a first glance, the North Sea wind resources seem abundant. The available wind resources could potentially fulfil a large share of the ambitious EU 20% renewable energy target to be achieved by the European Member States by 2020. At the same time, there are increasing pressures on this marine environment as more uses are being introduced and current uses are being expanded. Large OWE projects are in the pipeline and countries surrounding this sea basin are, to some extent, speeding up planning activities in an attempt to find viable locations for development. However, the overall management of this sea basin is still somewhat fragmented, nationally focussed and rarely steam-lined in terms of timing.

The Central and Southern North Sea basin is one of the busiest seas in the world. It is surrounded by densely populated and highly industrialised countries such as Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom. Major activities in the North Sea include shipping, fishing, sand and gravel extraction, military activities and offshore energy related activities such as the exploitation of oil and gas reserves including the laying of cables and pipelines. The North Sea has numerous ports and harbours situated on its coasts, including two of the world's largest ports - Rotterdam and Hamburg. The North Sea is frequently traversed with many dense shipping lanes, particularly in the Southern part of the North Sea. Generally, there is an increase on pressures on marine space and many parts the sea basin are strongly congested, especially near shore…

At a time when OWE is strongly driven by EU and national policies, and pressures on marine space are increasing, an early understanding of how driving forces can impact on opportunities, challenges and future trends will allow for a better adaptation of policies to promote a greater deployment of OWE. This merits a more in-depth and detailed analysis of the different parameters that relate to competition for sea space and the cost of OWE. This is a key motivation behind the WINDSPEED project. The WINDSPEED project, funded under the Intelligent Energy for Europe programme, has taken a closer look at the potentials for OWE in the Central and Southern North Sea. To do this, it has developed a methodology for an integrated assessment of how various constraints – spatial, policy, growth, grid and market integration – impact on deployment potentials…

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Point of Departure In summary

The Central and Southern North Sea basin has currently a leading role in the deployment of OWE, with a capacity of 2GW (expected by end of 2011). This sea basin is in a position to continue its leadership in OWE deployment.

Although foresight and timing are crucial elements for providing investor confidence, there are currently no clear ambitions or targets for further OWE developments beyond 2020.

There is a clear lack of coherence in the current ambitions and support provided for OWE deployment.

North Sea countries are notably taking steps to improve their own MSP framework, however, few efforts are being made to look beyond national borders.

All parks are currently radially connected to shore; however, a few interconnector projects in the planning phase will likely address the possibility of T-connection solutions.

Current electricity market rules and differences in national support schemes act as a barrier against using the full ‘technical’ potential of offshore wind development as well as the added flexibility potential of hydropower as a balancing resource.

National orientation of support mechanisms persists; however, should cross-border flows of OWE become significant, this may push support levels closer towards equivalency.

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Challenges and Opportunities In summary

The North Sea is home to a wide variety of sea use functions with differing spatial use patterns, characteristics and interactions with OWE.

These uses are often observed to overlap with each other, complicating the possibility of identifying additional space for OWE.

It is important to look at future use patterns and requirements, not just the current situation in the North Sea.

The anticipated densities of offshore wind parks – due to practical issues of wake minimisation – present co-use or integrated planning opportunities with certain other sea use functions.

There is a balance to be struck on keeping OWE costs low – in terms of identifying space closer to shore or at shallower depths – and the spatial requirements of other uses. Finding the best locations for OWE, from a societal point of view, is contingent on all necessary information on current and future sea uses being made available, which is currently a challenge.

OWE is still at an early stage of industrial/technological development. Large scale implementation implies overcoming challenges related to reduction of OWE development costs.

Large-scale OWE in the North Sea opens the possibility of an offshore grid as a
connection solution.

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Looking Ahead – Key findings

There are limited areas close to shore for incremental OWE without prioritisation of space for OWE.

Looking for co-use with some existing sea uses or assuming some level of compromise on the extent of other certain uses can make a large difference to the potential for incremental OWE; particularly for generation at low to moderate delivered electricity costs.

Going further from shore creates opportunities for 2 to 5 times more incremental deployment but the realised capacity depends on a number of factors including: availability of deeper water technology, development of an offshore grid and advancement in the supporting HVDC technology.

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Realising floating technologies effectively doubles the total spatial OWE potential but, the additional capacity is concentrated almost exclusively in the UK and Norway.

Large clusters of wind parks will need spacing between them to allow for wind resource recovery, this triggers the opportunity for co-use/integrated-use; the corridors between neighbouring parks can be utilised by other sea use functions such as shipping and fishing. This not only helps ensure optimum energy yields but also minimises impacts on other sea use functions.

Moving parks further from shore will make cross-border planning more important, in particular for the development of an offshore grid.

The infrastructure costs of an offshore grid are shown to be more than compensated for by the learning effects of the additional permitted capacity. Noting, that regulatory incentives are needed that support investment in an offshore grid.

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Cross-border cooperation will play a key role in realising the most ambitious scenarios, both in terms of cross-border MSP and on the necessary electrical infrastructure.

Differences in wind resource and marine environments could make countries such as Denmark and Norway exporters of OWE, but this is dependent on finding cooperation mechanisms that support such investment and integrate it with the development of an offshore grid.

Only by taking on both issues - of increased spatial prioritisation of OWE and offshore grid development - can the ambitious estimate of 135 GW of OWE capacity in the Central and Southern North Sea be achieved.

OWE can play a large role in the future energy systems of the 6 WINDSPEED countries, supplying more than 30% of their electricity consumption. However significant challenges must be overcome in terms of finding additional space through integrated and coordinated MSP, developing appropriate offshore electrical infrastructure and implementing cooperation mechanisms.