IEA WARNS NEW ENERGY IS URGENT

IEA Warns Bold Policy Changes Needed to Prevent Energy Crisis
November 9, 2011 (EcoWatch)

"Without a bold change of policy direction, the world will lock itself into an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned as it launched the 2011 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO)…[T]here is still time to act, but the window of opportunity is closing…

"In the WEO’s central New Policies Scenario, which assumes that recent government commitments are implemented in a cautious manner, primary energy demand increases by one-third between 2010 and 2035, with 90 percent of the growth in non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development economies. China consolidates its position as the world’s largest energy consumer—it consumes nearly 70 percent more energy than the U.S. by 2035, even though, by then, per capita demand in China is still less than half the level in the U.S…"

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"…[Fossil fuels consumption] falls from around 81 percent today to 75 percent in 2035. Renewables increase from 13 percent of the mix today to 18 percent in 2035. The growth in renewables is underpinned by subsidies that rise from $64 billion in 2010 to $250 billion in 2035, support that in some cases cannot be taken for granted in this age of fiscal austerity. By contrast, subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to $409 billion in 2010…

"…[T]he average oil price…[approaches] $120/barrel (in year-2010 dollars) in 2035…If, between 2011 and 2015, investment in the MENA region runs one-third lower than the $100 billion per year required, consumers could face…$150/barrel…Oil demand rises…to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies…Alternative technologies, such as hybrid and electric vehicles…continue to advance but they take time…The use of coal…rises 65 percent by 2035…[Even in] the New Policies Scenario, cumulative CO2 emissions over the next 25 years amount to three-quarters of the total from the past 110 years, leading to a long-term average temperature rise of 3.5°C…"