EXTREME EVENTS

Headlines from the IPCC Special Report on Extreme Events
Dr. Tom Mitchell and Dr. Maarten van Aalst, 18 November 2011 (Overseas Development Institute and Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre)

"…[T]he Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation …presents a dramatic and precise set of findings…

"1. Even without taking climate change into account, disaster risk will continue to increase in many countries as more people and assets are exposed to weather extremes…2. Evidence suggests that climate change has changed the magnitude and frequency of some extreme weather and climate events (‘climate extremes’) in some regions already…3. Climate change will have [progressively] significant impacts on the severity and magnitude of climate extremes…4. There is better information on what we expect in terms of changes in extremes in various regions (rather than just globally)…"

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"5. High levels of vulnerability, combined with more severe and frequent weather and climate extremes, may result in some places, such as atolls, being increasingly difficult places in which to live and work…6. A new balance needs to be struck between measures to reduce risk, transfer risk (e.g. through insurance) and effectively prepare for and manage disaster impact…7. …[E]xisting risk management measures need to be improved as many countries are poorly adapted to current extremes and risks, let alone those projected for the future…

"8. Countries’ capacity to meet the challenges of observed and projected trends in disaster risk is determined by the effectiveness of their national risk management system…9. In cases where vulnerability and exposure are high, capacity is low, and weather and climate extremes are changing, more fundamental adjustments may be required to avoid the worst disaster losses…10. Any delay in greenhouse gas mitigation is likely to lead to more severe and frequent climate extremes…[T]oday’s climate extremes will be tomorrow’s ‘normal’ weather and tomorrow’s climate extremes will stretch our imagination and capacity to cope…"