TODAY’S STUDY: IRELAND GETS READY FOR CARS WITH PLUGS

ELECTRIC VEHICLES Roadmap 2050
January 2012 (Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland)

Introduction to the Electric Vehicle Roadmap

Transport accounts for one third of Ireland’s energy requirement and energy related CO2 emissions and is almost entirely dependent on oil. Increasing oil scarcity, oil price volatility, and environmental concerns are driving a search for an alternative means of powering our transport system.

The transport sector has been the largest sectoral driver of energy demand in Ireland over the past two decades, increasing at twice the rate of increase in overall energy demand over the same period. Private road transport is the largest contributor to transport demand at 43%, with air transport and road freight contributing less than 20% each. In the context of an EU commitment to achieve an 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050, and concerns about future scarcity, alternatives to oil (particularly in private road transport) must be encouraged.

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A number of alternative approaches are emerging, with different options being considered appropriate for different modes of transport. Biofuels are being promoted for all transport, but may be of most value for road freight and air transport, where length of journey will require higher density fuels. Options to address private road transport include modal shift towards public transport and cycling, and technology advancements, including more efficient internal combustion engines (ICE) and electric vehicles (EV).

For Ireland, with access to large amounts of variable renewable wind and ocean energy, and with relatively short driving distances for most private vehicle users, electric vehicles offer the prospect of reducing energy consumption in transport, while at the same time reducing our import of fossil fuels, and providing an additional demand to balance the supply of variable renewable generation. The development of high energy density lithium batteries, the inherently high efficiencies of an electric drive train, and the current race between auto manufacturers to bring credible commercial electric vehicles to market is driving the cost of ownership towards parity with conventional vehicles. This means a transition to electric vehicles could provide economic benefits as well as energy diversity and reduced CO2 emissions.

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Achieving the potential benefits envisaged in a high electric vehicle deployment scenario assumes that a global high deployment scenario is achieved, driving technical innovation and providing scale economies which Ireland’s market cannot achieve on its own. In addition, it will require a strategic approach that integrates the deployment of electric vehicles and variable renewable generation with the development of smart grid technology, providing intelligence across the system and enabling communications between system operators, vehicle charging systems, and generators.

This roadmap provides scenarios for accelerated deployment of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in the private vehicle fleet to 2050. It was developed alongside a wind energy roadmap and a smart grid roadmap, and key assumptions across all three are aligned. Our roadmap builds on the work of the International Energy Agency to present the potential impacts of accelerated electric vehicle deployment on energy demand, fossil fuel imports, and CO2 emissions. The developments in policy, technology and infrastructure that will enable accelerated deployment are also identified. The delivery of an integrated low carbon energy strategy that facilitates electric vehicle deployment while increasing our use of zero carbon variable renewable resources is achievable by 2050. This roadmap highlights the substantial work required for its successful delivery and, along with the other roadmaps developed by SEAI, points to a possible low carbon future for Ireland…

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Electric Vehicles Key Points

Electric vehicles within this roadmap include battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the Irish passenger car market up to 2050

With an abundance of accessible wind and ocean energy and distances from the capital city to key neighbouring cities ranging from 170km to 260km, Ireland is well suited to become an early adopter of electric vehicle technology. This roadmap offers a vision of how the Irish market for electric vehicles could develop up to the year 2050 and models a number of EV deployment scenarios. The impact of EVs on energy efficiency, fossil fuel imports and CO2 emissions are presented. Additional analysis results considering the impact of EVs on electricity demand and on critical peak load periods are shown.

A technical annex detailing assumptions and analyses is available on the SEAI web site.

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Key Findings

●● Passenger Car Fleet increases by 60% from 2011 with 2.9 million vehicles on the road by 2050

●● By 2020 the EV contribution to the passenger car segment is 2.4%, growing to 60% by 2050 in the medium scenario

●● Transport fossil fuel imports reduce by up to 50% compared with 2011: this equates to a reduction in fossil fuel imports of 800,000toe per annum for the passenger car segment

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●● Renewable energy in the passenger vehicle segment increases by up to 50% by 2050

●● CO 2 emissions for the passenger car fleet reduce by about 1% with respect to 2011 emissions, despite a significantly larger fleet size in 2050

●● Based on projected cost reductions for battery production, EVs may offer cheaper 10 year cost of ownership than future ICE vehicles from the period 2019 to 2025 without financial incentives

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●● Comparing the Mean EV deployment scenario, including 60% EVs and 18% Hydrogen vehicles, with a future fleet of only ICE vehicles, the cumulative savings to society could range from €2.3 billion to €12.4 billion by 2050

●● EV deployment causes gross electricity consumption to grow by just 14%. Assuming EV energy is consumed only at night time, there could be sufficient capacity available to supply an EV Fleet of up to 1.8 million vehicles with 2.9GW of electrical capacity required at night. Adjusting this window to an 8hr period reduces this capacity figure to 1.8GW. Therefore, some method of aggregating and managing the EV load will be required to minimise grid development costs and enable EVs’ demand to assist in managing wind variability

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Key Results

The key results are presented here for the Mean EV Deployment Scenario with 60% EV (BEV plus PHEV) and 18% H2 Fuel Cells car sales by 2050. The High and Low Scenarios comprise the same overall car stock levels but differ by +/-20% from the Mean EV levels. Note that new ICE vehicles sold from 2011 onwards are subject to the EU prescribed CO2 emission improvements to 95 gCO2/km by 2020. The only forms of renewable electricity included in the study are wind and ocean power. Alternative transport fuels such as liquid biofuels and natural gas are excluded, to focus exclusively on the effect of electricity in transport. This will lead to conservative estimates of CO2 reduction and transport fuels consumption. Results for all scenarios are presented in table form.