NEW ENERGY AND NAT GAS

Clean Energy and the Challenge of Low-Cost Natural Gas
Ron Pernick, March 2, 2012 (Clean Edge)

"…[There is] a strong case for an energy future that moves beyond highly polluting coal and extremely volatile nuclear power, and towards a marriage of efficiency/smart grid, renewables, and natural gas. But in a world of low-cost natural gas, currently at less than $2.50 per million BTU in the U.S. (it’s closer to six times that amount, or $15, in Europe and Asia), how can solar, wind, and other clean energy sources compete? Does low-cost natural gas, which could last for years or decades in the U.S., mean the end of clean tech as we know it?

"...[A] number of factors are likely to ensure that we see more of a complementary future unfold…[State] renewable portfolio standards, some with solar carve-outs, will ensure that solar is part of the future energy mix…[W]holesale produced electricity from natural gas may be as low as 5-8 cents per kWh…[but] by the time that electricity gets to end consumers in places like San Diego and Los Angeles, the cost on the customers’ side of the meter is closer to 20 cents a kWh…[so] distributed solar on residential and commercial rooftops can compete very effectively at the retail level…"

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"…[And] a new generation of natural gas power plants…is being optimized to provide baseload power and load sharing with solar, wind, and other renewable sources…pairing of low cost, next-generation baseload natural gas with zero-emissions intermittent renewables…[E]fficiency measures, biogas, stationary fuel cells, and other measures…could actually leverage low-cost natural gas…[E]lectrification and natural gas offer a much cheaper alternative to oil…[W]ind power] in many cases is now cost-comparable to natural gas-fired wholesale electricity prices, even in the U.S.

"…[N]atural gas will play a significant role in supporting a cleaner energy future – but it cannot be done at the risk of polluted local communities and despoiled water and land…[F]racking [and natural gas prospecting] must be properly regulated…[Solar cells] are now exhibiting economies of scale only seen in earlier high-tech revolutions…[S]olar is, in fact, becoming increasingly cost-competitive, even compared with low-cost natural gas…[N]early 70 percent of new electricity capacity in the European Union [last year] came from renewables [with government incentives and supports]…[and] natural gas…made up 22 percent of new capacity installations…[That’s] 90 percent of new capacity additions in 2011…[Coal was five percent and nuclear was] one percent…"