2012, FROM SUN UP TO SUN DOWN

Expectations of Policy Adjustments in Germany Drive Global PV Demand Up 146% Y/Y in Q1’12; Manufacturers’ Shipment Growth Plans in Line with Market Demand in First Three Quarters of 2012
April 2, 2012 (Solarbuzz)

"Strong early-year photovoltaic market demand in 2012, stimulated by a shifting and uncertain policy environment in Europe, has established the foundation for PV manufacturers to increase shipments this year…

"Boosted particularly by delayed policy tightening in Germany, Q1'12 global demand is now forecast at 6.9 GW, down 35% Q/Q, but up a huge 146% Y/Y. However for 2H’12, European demand is projected to drop 27% compared with 1H’12, an atypical annual phase."

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"Q4’11 global industry end-market revenues reached $35.4 billion, their highest level since Q4’10, but are now projected to drop to $22.0 billion in Q4’12, a result driven by both lower volumes and prices. Over-optimism on shipments and production twelve months ago, together with weak global demand growth in the first three quarters of 2011, were the drivers of last year’s pricing collapse through the PV chain…

" Chinese, Taiwanese and Rest of World manufacturers, who grew production share from 69% in Q4’10 to 78% in Q4’11, are projected to increase moderately to 79% by Q4’12…Vertically integrated Western and Japanese manufacturers dealt with negative margins for the third consecutive quarter in Q4'11, while average Chinese Tier I gross margins declined from 12% to 7%..."