EU PV UPS AND DOWNS

European Solar Market Outlook to Stay Murky

2012–May-10 (Energy Trend)

“Recent elections in Europe ushered in uncertainty for the solar market, and the new subsidy policies to take effect in 2H12 also rendered players conservative…[O]rders for solar modules will continue to pour in till mid-May, while orders for solar cells will persist till early June…[R]elated manufacturers stated that given the cutthroat competition, companies still walk on thin ice…Unless the murky outlook turns clear, conservatism will keep on dominating the downstream solar industry.

“…[O]rders in 2Q12 are most likely to pour in well into early June, while orders in 3Q12 and 4Q12 will start emerging [in June]…[S]purred by the subsidy changes, German and Italian solar markets have seen strong demand surges in 1H12…[but] due to the fact that the booming growth in 1H12 is attributed to the large subsidy cuts set to become effective in 2H12, countries which have seen steep upswings in installed solar capacities in 1H12 are likely to undergo setbacks in 2H12…”

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“…[R]umor has it that solar prices will dip soon…[but] the current spot prices are already below the manufacturing costs…[and will] likely stay flat…Chinese first-tier solar module makers Trina Solar, JA Solar, and Suntech Power are all packed to capacity, while Taiwanese top solar cell makers’ utilization rates are well above 80%, which indicates the solar companies are striving to catch up with the 2Q12 orders…Given the post-June uncertainty and a high likelihood of high utilization rates persisting, spot prices may plunge even further.

“…[Because] spot prices have already fallen below the costs, manufacturers were unable to further cut prices. As a result, the spot prices stayed flat…High-efficiency products’ prices were relatively stable despite the downtrend. Manufacturers stated that…high-efficiency products are still on tight supply if excluding the old capacities. Thus, the price trends of high-efficiency products and regular products are expected to differ vastly in the short run.”