THE U.S. ENERGY OUTLOOK NOW

Annual Energy Outlook 2012

June 25, 2012 (Energy Information Administration)

“…The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term…The Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) Reference case…was updated to incorporate modeling changes and reflect new legislation or regulation that was not available when the Early Release Overview version of the Reference case was published…

“…The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) issued by the EPA in December 2011 was incorporated…The long-term macroeconomic projection was revised, based on the November 2011 long-term projection from IHS Global Insights, Inc…The Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR)…was included…[even though] a District Court delayed the rule from going into effect while in litigation…The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) [ was found to be unconstitutional and] removed…Historical data and equations for the transportation sector were revised…A new cement model was incorporated in the industrial sector.”

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“Photovoltaic capacity estimates for recent historical years (2009 and 2010) were updated to line up more closely with Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC) reports…Gulf of Mexico production data were revised downward to reflect data reported by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management…Data in the electricity model were revised to reflect 2009 electric utility financial data…and refine the breakdown of associated costs between the generation, transmission, and distribution components.

“Higher capital costs for fabric filters were adopted in the analysis of MATS, based on EPA data…Reservoir-level oil data were updated to improve the API gravity and sulfur content data elements…The assumed volume of natural gas used at export liquefaction facilities was revised…”

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