HOW NEW ENERGY WILL DO THIS YEAR
Energy Predictions for the Second Half of 2012
Michael Butler, August 20, 2012 (Clean Edge)
“During the first half of 2012…Clean-tech equity financings, project financings, and average deal sizes were down compared to Q4 of 2011…[Despite macro] issues, including the European debt crisis and the upcoming U.S. elections…Cascadia believes that financing and M&A will begin to recover through the second half of the year and will normalize by the end of this year…led in part by early stage financings, along with M&A activity in the energy efficiency and solar sectors…
“…Investments in early stage clean-tech companies [and consolidation in the energy efficiency sector] continue to accelerate…44 percent of all Q1 2012 financings were early stage transactions…[I]nvestors are becoming more comfortable with the risks inherent in early stage deals, and…entrepreneurs are creating companies that investors find attractive from both business model and technology perspectives…[Energy efficiency, the] most rapidly consolidating sector in sustainable industries…will continue to see activity as managed services providers increasingly look to make strategic acquisitions of technology…[and] companies which have not traditionally been involved with the energy services category begin to move in…through acquisitions…”
“…[T]he decline in the cost of curve panels…[is] expanding growth opportunities especially among the downstream solar companies, balance of system providers, solar finance companies, and solar integrators. Upstream companies however, will continue to struggle as they will be forced to cut prices to stay afloat as they struggle against new competition…Natural gas and renewable energy industries will find it in their best interest to cooperate…The downside to [cheap and abundant nautral gas is] a decrease in renewable energy investments…[but cheap natural gas] will drive overall economic activity, which in the long run will be positive for the renewable energy sector…
“…If Romney is elected it won’t be as negative for renewable energy as people think…[He is] a major supporter of natural gas…[and] has made it the number one goal of his energy policy to build out the natural gas infrastructure…Obama has been supportive of natural gas development, but his policies have generally favored renewable energy…[W]hether Romney or Obama wins in November, we expect to see a post-election uptick in investments across all market sectors, including renewable energy due to renewed investor confidence in the economy as a whole.”
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