SOLAR EXPECTS DOG DAYS IN AUGUST
TrendForce: Decreasing PV Orders and Prices Portend Weaker-than-Expected Solar Market in August
2012-7-19 (Energy Trend)
“…[V]endors indicate August orders have decreased significantly due to PV subsidy policy changes in Europe. Furthermore, spot prices are showing a downtrend and EnergyTrend expects August price for products with 17-17.2% efficiency will fall below US$0.45/Watt, while 16.8-17% efficiency products will see prices lower than US$0.4/Watt…Shrinking PV subsidies in Germany, Italy, Bulgaria, etc…[have created a] bear market in Europe…August orders have decreased significantly.
“…[T]he European market is expected to see sluggish growth in the second half of the year…[and] manufacturers’ recent price quotes have shown considerable decline…[and] put clients in wait-and-see mode. Normally, August order negotiations should already be underway, but talks have been delayed…[T]he extent of order decreases is unclear…”
“…[E]merging market demand is not climbing rapidly enough to make up for the decrease in Europe…[T]op manufacturers are currently using approximately 70 to 80% of total capacity, while second and third-tier makers are producing at around 60% capacity. While suppliers have high hopes for the Japanese PV market, demand growth will take time…[O]nly a portion of manufacturers will be able to…maintain capacity.
“…[P]olysilicon deals were conducted in the US$20-21/kg range. The four major manufacturers saw prices arrive at US$19.5/kg, indication that suppliers are eager to clear inventory…[Silicon wafer makers saw [downward] price adjustments due to the sluggish market…Average mono-Si wafer price, still suffering the double impact from weak demand and high-efficiency products, fell by 0.27% to US$1.466/piece. Average solar cell and module price dropped to US$1.466/piece, a 0.27% decrease…Thin film products, affected by weak market demand and declining silicon module price, also saw a [1.25%] decreasing price trend…”
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