NewEnergyNews: TODAY’S STUDY: WHAT NEW ENERGY CAN DO IN THE WEST

NewEnergyNews

Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

The challenge: To make every day Earth Day.

YESTERDAY

  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE- STAR WARS PLANET TATOOINE’S CLIMATE CHANGE
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-BIG NEW THREAT TO CLIMATE FROM COAL-TO-GAS IN CHINA
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-INDIA VILLAGE OF 2,400 GOES 100% SOLAR WITH BATTERIES, MICROGRID
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-GERMANY IS WORLD’S MOST EFFICIENT MAJOR ECONOMY
  • THE DAY BEFORE

    THINGS-TO-THINK-ABOUT THURSDAY, July 24:

  • TTTA Thursday-CLIMATE FACTS VERSUS CLIMATE CULTURE
  • TTTA Thursday-MONEY IN WIND UP FOR QUARTER, DOWN FROM 2013
  • TTTA Thursday-MIDWEST BIOFUELS CAN BE NEW ENERGY – UCS STUDY
  • TTTA Thursday-TESLA CHAMPIONS THE PLUG AND THE CAR
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    GET THE DAILY HEADLINES EMAIL: CLICK HERE TO SUBMIT YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS OR SEND YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS TO: herman@NewEnergyNews.net

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    THE DAY BEFORE THE DAY BEFORE

  • THE STUDY: EUROPE’S OFFSHORE WIND PROGRESS THIS YEAR
  • QUICK NEWS, July 23: NEW ENERGY WAS 55% OF 1H 2014 U.S. NEW BUILD; EV SALES LEAP; OCEAN ENERGY’S FINANCES UNDER SCRUTINY
  • THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • THE STUDY: WHY THE OIL & GAS INDUSTRY BACKS AN ALL-OF-THE-ABOVE ENERGY POLICY
  • QUICK NEWS, July 22: U.S. DOE FORESEES NEW ENERGY; THE BEST CITIES FOR NEW ENERGY; ENERGY STORAGE TO BE $50BIL MRKT
  • AND THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • THE STUDY: THE COST OF ADDING SOLAR TO A UTILITY’S OPERATIONS
  • QUICK NEWS, 7-21: U.S. WIND, SOLAR TO GROW THROUGH 2020; NEW GEOTHERMAL RISING; CHINESE HAVE RIGHTS IN OREGON WIND BUY
  • THE LAST DAY UP HERE

  • Weekend Video: Colbert Gets Into Coal Rolling
  • Weekend Video: How Solar Power Plants Store And Use Solar Energy
  • Weekend Video: A Story About People And Wind Energy
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    Anne B. Butterfield of Daily Camera and Huffington Post, is a biweekly contributor to NewEnergyNews

  • Another Tipping Point: US Coal Supply Decline So Real Even West Virginia Concurs (REPORT)

    November 26, 2013 (Huffington Post via NewEnergyNews)

    Everywhere we turn, environmental news is filled with horrid developments and glimpses of irreversible tipping points.

    Just a handful of examples are breathtaking: Scientists have dared to pinpoint the years at which locations around the world may reach runaway heat, and in the northern hemisphere it's well in sight for our children: 2047. Survivors of Superstorm Sandy are packing up as costs of repair and insurance go out of reach, one threat that climate science has long predicted. Or we could simply talk about the plight of bees and the potential impact on food supplies. Surprising no one who explores the Pacific Ocean, sailor Ivan MacFadyen described long a journey dubbed The Ocean is Broken, in which he saw vast expanses of trash and almost no wildlife save for a whale struggling a with giant tumor on its head, evoking the tons of radioactive water coming daily from Fukushima's lamed nuclear power center. Rampaging fishing methods and ocean acidification are now reported as causing the overpopulation of jellyfish that have jammed the intakes of nuclear plants around the world. Yet the shutting down of nuclear plants is a trifling setback compared with the doom that can result in coming days at Fukushima in the delicate job to extract bent and spent fuel rods from a ruined storage tank, a project dubbed "radioactive pick up sticks."

    With all these horrors to ponder you wouldn't expect to hear that you should also worry about the United States running out of coal. But you would be wrong, says Leslie Glustrom, founder and research director for Clean Energy Action. Her contention is that we've passed the peak in our nation's legendary supply of coal that powers over one-third of our grid capacity. This grim news is faithfully spelled out in three reports, with the complete story told in Warning: Faulty Reporting of US Coal Reserves (pdf). (Disclosure: I serve on CEA's board and have known the author for years.)

    Glustrom's research presents a sea change in how we should understand our energy challenges, or experience grim consequences. It's not only about toxic and heat-trapping emissions anymore; it's also about having enough energy generation to run big cities and regions that now rely on coal. Glustrom worries openly about how commerce will go on in many regions in 2025 if they don't plan their energy futures right.

    2013-11-05-FigureES4_FULL.jpgclick to enlarge

    Scrutinizing data for prices on delivered coal nationwide, Glustrom's new report establishes that coal's price has risen nearly 8 percent annually for eight years, roughly doubling, due mostly to thinner, deeper coal seams plus costlier diesel transport expenses. Higher coal prices in a time of "cheap" natural gas and affordable renewables means coal companies are lamed by low or no profits, as they hold debt levels that dwarf their market value and carry very high interest rates.

    2013-11-05-Table_ES2_FULL.jpgclick to enlarge

    2013-11-05-Figure_ES2_FULL.jpg

    One leading coal company, Patriot, filed for bankruptcy last year; many others are also struggling under bankruptcy watch and not eager to upgrade equipment for the tougher mining ahead. Add to this the bizarre event this fall of a coal lease failing to sell in Wyoming's Powder River Basin, the "Fort Knox" of the nation's coal supply, with some pundits agreeing this portends a tightening of the nation's coal supply, not to mention the array of researchers cited in the report. Indeed, at the mid point of 2013, only 488 millions tons of coal were produced in the U.S.; unless a major catch up happens by year-end, 2013 may be as low in production as 1993.

    Coal may exist in large quantities geologically, but economically, it's getting out of reach, as confirmed by US Geological Survey in studies indicating that less than 20 percent of US coal formations are economically recoverable, as explored in the CEA report. To Glustrom, that number plus others translate to 10 to 20 years more of burning coal in the US. It takes capital, accessible coal with good heat content and favorable market conditions to assure that mining companies will stay in business. She has observed a classic disconnect between camps of professionals in which geologists tend to assume money is "infinite" and financial analysts tend to assume that available coal is "infinite." Both biases are faulty and together they court disaster, and "it is only by combining thoughtful estimates of available coal and available money that our country can come to a realistic estimate of the amount of US coal that can be mined at a profit." This brings us back to her main and rather simple point: "If the companies cannot make a profit by mining coal they won't be mining for long."

    No one is more emphatic than Glustrom herself that she cannot predict the future, but she presents trend lines that are robust and confirmed assertively by the editorial board at West Virginia Gazette:

    Although Clean Energy Action is a "green" nonprofit opposed to fossil fuels, this study contains many hard economic facts. As we've said before, West Virginia's leaders should lower their protests about pollution controls, and instead launch intelligent planning for the profound shift that is occurring in the Mountain State's economy.

    The report "Warning, Faulty Reporting of US Coal Reserves" and its companion reports belong in the hands of energy and climate policy makers, investors, bankers, and rate payer watchdog groups, so that states can plan for, rather than react to, a future with sea change risk factors.

    [Clean Energy Action is fundraising to support the dissemination of this report through December 11. Contribute here.]

    It bears mentioning that even China is enacting a "peak coal" mentality, with Shanghai declaring that it will completely ban coal burning in 2017 with intent to close down hundreds of coal burning boilers and industrial furnaces, or shifting them to clean energy by 2015. And Citi Research, in "The Unimaginable: Peak Coal in China," took a look at all forms of energy production in China and figured that demand for coal will flatten or peak by 2020 and those "coal exporting countries that have been counting on strong future coal demand could be most at risk." Include US coal producers in that group of exporters.

    Our world is undergoing many sorts of change and upheaval. We in the industrialized world have spent about a century dismissing ocean trash, overfishing, pesticides, nuclear hazard, and oil and coal burning with a shrug of, "Hey it's fine, nature can manage it." Now we're surrounded by impacts of industrial-grade consumption, including depletion of critical resources and tipping points of many kinds. It is not enough to think of only ourselves and plan for strictly our own survival or convenience. The threat to animals everywhere, indeed to whole systems of the living, is the grief-filled backdrop of our times. It's "all hands on deck" at this point of human voyaging, and in our nation's capital, we certainly don't have that. Towns, states and regions need to plan fiercely and follow through. And a fine example is Boulder Colorado's recent victory to keep on track for clean energy by separating from its electric utility that makes 59 percent of its power from coal.

    Clean Energy Action is disseminating "Warning: Faulty Reporting of US Coal Reserves" for free to all manner of relevant professionals who should be concerned about long range trends which now include the supply risks of coal, and is supporting that outreach through a fundraising campaign.

    [Clean Energy Action is fundraising to support the dissemination of this report through December 11. Contribute here.]

    Author's note: Want to support my work? Please "fan" me at Huffpost Denver, here (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/anne-butterfield). Thanks.

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    Anne's previous NewEnergyNews columns:

  • Another Tipping Point: US Coal Supply Decline So Real Even West Virginia Concurs (REPORT), November 26, 2013
  • SOLAR FOR ME BUT NOT FOR THEE ~ Xcel's Push to Undermine Rooftop Solar, September 20, 2013
  • NEW BILLS AND NEW BIRDS in Colorado's recent session, May 20, 2013
  • Lies, damned lies and politicians (October 8, 2012)
  • Colorado's Elegant Solution to Fracking (April 23, 2012)
  • Shale Gas: From Geologic Bubble to Economic Bubble (March 15, 2012)
  • Taken for granted no more (February 5, 2012)
  • The Republican clown car circus (January 6, 2012)
  • Twenty-Somethings of Colorado With Skin in the Game (November 22, 2011)
  • Occupy, Xcel, and the Mother of All Cliffs (October 31, 2011)
  • Boulder Can Own Its Power With Distributed Generation (June 7, 2011)
  • The Plunging Cost of Renewables and Boulder's Energy Future (April 19, 2011)
  • Paddling Down the River Denial (January 12, 2011)
  • The Fox (News) That Jumped the Shark (December 16, 2010)
  • Click here for an archive of Butterfield columns

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    Some details about NewEnergyNews and the man behind the curtain: Herman K. Trabish, Agua Dulce, CA., Doctor with my hands, Writer with my head, Student of New Energy and Human Experience with my heart

    email: herman@NewEnergyNews.net

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    Your intrepid reporter

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      A tip of the NewEnergyNews cap to Phillip Garcia for crucial assistance in the design implementation of this site. Thanks, Phillip.

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    Pay a visit to the HARRY BOYKOFF page at Basketball Reference, sponsored by NewEnergyNews and Oil In Their Blood.

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  • Wednesday, August 22, 2012

    TODAY’S STUDY: WHAT NEW ENERGY CAN DO IN THE WEST

    The Vast Potential for Renewable Energy in the American West; Developing Wind, Solar, and Geothermal Energy on Public Lands

    Jessica Goad, Daniel J. Weiss and Richard W. Caperton, August 6, 2012 (Center for American Progress)

    Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah—the “Four Corners” states plus their western neighbors—are home to some of the best renewable electricity potential in the country. These states have consistently sunny skies for solar power, wind-blown plains and deserts for turbines, and underground heat perfect for geothermal energy. They also have incredible potential for smaller-scale technologies like rooftop solar panels and energy efficiency improvements.

    Our analysis shows these states can house clean energy projects that could realistically provide more than 34 gigawatts of solar, wind, and geothermal energy over the next two decades. This development could stimulate more than $137 billion in investment in the renewable energy sector, create more than 209,000 direct jobs, and provide electricity for 7 million homes. With supportive federal policies, these renewable electricity goals can be met and surpassed.

    Already, the American West leads the way in construction of clean and renewable electricity projects on the ground, spurred forward by policies including state renewable electricity standards and government investments in clean technologies…

    Such projects and employment reinforce westerners’ perspective that renewable energy is a key component of their states’ economic future. A poll this year by the Colorado College “State of the Rockies Project” found that two-thirds of voters polled said “increasing the use of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power will create new jobs” in their states.

    And when it came to comparing fossil fuels and renewables, western voters were far more likely to encourage more wind and solar power over coal and oil. In response to the question “which one of the following sources of energy would you want to encourage the use of here in [your state]?”, respondents answered overwhelmingly in favor of clean energy…

    The clean energy revolution in these western states is already under way, and federal lands offer significant opportunity for continued and increased investment in clean electricity. The West is home to hundreds of millions of acres of federally managed public lands, which are mostly under the purview of the Department of the Interior and the Forest Service. Lands open for energy development do not include millions of acres of national parks, national monuments, wilderness areas, and other places protected by law.

    Much of the energy development on public lands occurs on areas managed by the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management. This agency oversees a large amount of the acreage in all six states: about 17 percent of Arizona, 15 percent of California, 12 percent of Colorado, 68 percent of Nevada, 17 percent of New Mexico, and 43 percent of Utah.

    Taxpayer-owned lands are already a part of our country’s clean energy revolution. In fact, dozens of solar, wind, and geothermal projects sited on public lands are either currently providing electricity or have been permitted to do so and are ready to be built.

    A report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory elaborated that:

    With 5,200 MW of [renewable energy] authorized or approved [on Bureau of Land Management Land], and approximately 8,000 MW of additional 2011 and 2012 high priority projects, the BLM appears to be on track to meet the [Energy Policy Act of 2005] requirement of approving 10,000 MW of RE on public lands by 2012.

    This is just the beginning, and many more installations could be responsibly sited and built in these states over the next 20 years, bringing economic development and job creation to the West. Additional policies are essential to turn these opportunities into reality.

    To capture the full economic, energy, and public health benefits from this opportunity, the federal government should adopt four essential policies:

    A national clean energy standard of 80 percent by 2035, with 35 percent for renewables

    A clean resources standard for public lands and waters

    Renewable energy zones

    Comprehensive electricity transmission reforms to rehabilitate our aging system

    Our report identifies the vast opportunities for renewable energy installations on public lands in the West, but this does not imply that we endorse their deployment on every acre. Some places are not appropriate for energy development, and instead should be managed for multiple uses including hunting, fishing, recreation, wildlife, and other such essential values.

    How much clean energy, jobs, and investment could western public lands generate?

    We assessed the federal government’s “reasonably foreseeable development scenarios” for the likelihood of renewable energy development on public lands in Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. These analyses examine the economic and policy conditions in the six states to determine how much renewable energy on public lands could realistically be generated over 20 years…

    As seen in the chart above, public lands in these six states could reasonably be the location for the development of 34,399 megawatts (or 34.4 gigawatts) of wind, solar, and geothermal energy over the next 20 years. This is enough electricity to power more than 7 million homes, or about equivalent to the number of homes in the Four Corners states. It is important to note that these figures are what the Department of the Interior considers to be realistic development, which is different than renewable energy potential on public lands in the West which is much greater. Our goal is to encourage the achievement of this outlook and to go beyond it.

    It is difficult to determine how many acres this development might entail for the six states that we studied due to lack of data for geothermal energy. But the same reasonably foreseeable development scenarios that we relied on for megawatt estimates found that on public lands in all of the western states surveyed, together about 214,000 acres of solar and 160,100 acres of wind could likely be developed over two decades. While the government’s analysis is less clear on the number of acres that could be disturbed for geothermal development, it estimates that about 133 additional geothermal power plants could be built by 2025, which would cover an average of up to 367 acres each. So we can guess that approximately 48,811 acres at most could be used for geothermal energy.

    The development of renewable energy on public lands in the six states that we examined could create hundreds of thousands of direct jobs through project construction, installation, and operation and maintenance. According to the Electric Power Research Institute, each megawatt of wind energy creates about 2.9 direct jobs, solar creates about 6.6 direct jobs, and geothermal creates about 5.7 direct jobs.

    Under these assumptions, and using the development scenarios in Figure 2, we find that more than 209,000 direct jobs could be created by building these 34.4 gigawatts…

    Additionally, building these projects will create direct investment in the six states. Many large financial institutions plan to invest in clean energy. Wells Fargo & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Bank of America Corp. have pledged to invest a combined $120 billion in the clean energy technologies sector over the coming years. Responsibly developing clean energy projects on America’s eligible public lands can help attract these investments, particularly in more rural areas that would benefit from the jobs and economic opportunity that the new projects can bring.

    To calculate the investment in renewable energy development that public lands might help stimulate, we looked at average investment in the renewable energy sector per megawatt by determining the costs to install the projects. According to data from the Energy Information Administration, the average installed costs for utility-scale solar are $4,667 per watt ($4.667 million per megawatt), $2,403 per kilowatt ($2.403 million per megawatt) for wind, and $2,482 per kilowatt ($2.482 million per megawatt) for geothermal. In total, we estimate that $137 billion of investment in the renewable energy sector could be stimulated by reasonably foreseeable development on public lands in the West…

    Making clean electricity from western public lands a reality

    Several important policies are necessary to ensure that we meet the realistic projection to build 34 gigawatts of renewable energy on appropriate public lands over the next two decades, and to eventually exceed that goal. Policies are also needed that account for the impacts of any industrial development on air and water quality, and landscapes. Specifically:

    * A national clean energy standard

    * A public lands clean resources standard

    * New energy zones

    * Electric transmission policy reforms

    Let’s examine each of these proposals briefly in turn.

    National clean energy standard

    President Barack Obama proposed a clean energy standard of 80 percent by 2035 that includes low-pollution electricity generation such as wind, solar, geothermal, natural gas, coal with carbon capture and storage, and nuclear power. This standard would require utilities to ensure that 80 percent of the electricity that they deliver is low carbon by 2050.

    We support this proposal because of the jobs and market certainty that it would provide, but also urge that the standard include a requirement that at least 35 percent of electricity be generated by wind, solar, geothermal, other renewables, and efficiency by 2035 to ensure continued investment in these technologies. This would help energy development on public lands by stimulating a strong market for renewable energy across the country.

    Public lands clean resources standard

    The president also should use executive authority to establish a “clean resources standard” for energy resources from eligible public lands. This would require that 35 percent of the electricity generated from resources mined, drilled, or otherwise extracted from public lands and waters be renewable by 2035. Similar to President Obama’s proposed clean energy standard designed to increase the amount of renewable electricity that utilities sell, this policy is designed to boost development of renewable electricity from public lands.

    Currently, 66 percent of electricity generated from resources from public lands and waters is from coal, while only 1 percent is from solar, wind, and geothermal combined. This shows that the use of our public lands for electricity generation heavily favors coal, and it neglects the contribution that our public lands could make toward development of low- and no-carbon electricity.

    New energy zones

    Siting large-scale renewable energy development on public lands across the country must take into account other values including hunting, fishing recreation, clean water, clean air, wildlife habitat, and scenery in accordance with the Bureau of Land Management’s multiple use mandate. One way to ensure that renewable energy development on public lands respects these values is for the Department of the Interior to build upon its program to establish incentivized zones for solar development on public lands. This program allows for incentives such as streamlined permitting, lower fees, and prioritized transmission capacity to be put in place for solar projects that are sited in designated zones. The zones will also have been screened for wildlife and other environmental conflicts to ensure that they will be minimal.

    On July 24, 2012, the Department of the Interior released the final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Solar Energy Development in Six Southwestern States. It designates 17 solar zones covering approximately 285,000 acres, and also opens up an additional 19 million acres to the possibility of solar energy development. A final decision approving the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement will be made by Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar in the next few months.

    In addition to fine-tuning and finalizing the solar energy zones, this policy should also be extended to wind projects to ensure that they too will have more certainty and fewer legal challenges when it comes to siting on public lands.

    Electric transmission policy reforms

    A major challenge to the deployment of large-scale renewable energy on public lands is the lack of adequate electrical transmission capacity to transmit this clean electricity to communities that need it. This process should be reformed, which could be accomplished in a variety of ways. As CAP previously wrote in 2010:

    Transmission reform is urgent. … [we need to] create a system for effectively siting new transmission. Such a system will likely combine [Federal Energy Regulatory Commission] oversight with a clearly defined role for state regulators, balancing the need for regional and national planning with respect for state and local conditions. This policy would lead to the construction or improvement of transmission lines by clarifying and streamlining the siting and permitting process. Additionally, federal authority to plan, site, and allocate costs for the construction of new transmission lines should be strengthened in the case that states do not work together to upgrade transmission capacity. The implementation of the Federal Regulatory Commission’s Order Number 1000 should be supported to help achieve these goals.

    Conclusion

    Public lands in the American West can help lead the nation’s transition to a cleaner, cheaper electricity system. Our analysis shows that under reasonably foreseeable federal government development scenarios for renewable energy development, more than 34 gigawatts of solar, wind, and geothermal energy could be built on public lands in the Four Corners states plus California and Nevada over the next 20 years. This would provide economic opportunities—more than 209,000 direct jobs and $137 billion in investment in the renewable energy sector. With supportive policies there is great potential to build additional wind, solar, and geothermal electricity projects on public lands in the West.

    This region has the opportunity to become a leader in the development of homegrown American energy not subject to volatile fossil-fuel prices, creating jobs that cannot be outsourced and developing technologies for export to other countries. But in order to realize this likelihood and also help the region achieve its even greater potential for renewable energy, a number of additional policies should be put in place. These include a national clean energy standard, a clean resources standard for public lands and waters, energy zones, and electric transmission policy reforms to update our aging system…

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