TODAY’S STUDY: VOTERS REALLY CARE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

Public Support for Climate And Energy Policies in March 2012 August 2012 (Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication)

Executive Summary

Interview dates: March 12, 2012 – March 30, 2012. Interviews: 1,008 Adults (18+) Margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. NOTE: All results show percentages among all respondents, unless otherwise labeled. Totals may occasionally sum to more than 100 percent due to rounding…

Overview

Overall, majorities of Americans say that global warming and clean energy should be among the nation’s priorities, want more action by elected officials, corporations and citizens themselves, and support a variety of climate change and energy policies, including holding fossil fuel companies responsible for all the “hidden costs” of their products. A majority also say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports a “revenue neutral” tax shift from income taxes to fossil fuels, and that global warming will be one of the issues that determines their vote for President this fall.

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Issue Priority

• 72 percent of Americans think that global warming should be a very high (12%), high (28%), or medium (32%) priority for the president and Congress. Among registered voters, 84 percent of Democrats, 68 percent of Independents, and 52 percent of Republicans think global warming should be a priority.

• 92 percent of Americans think that developing sources of clean energy should be a very high (31%), high (38%), or medium (23%) priority for the president and Congress. Among registered voters, 96 percent of Democrats and Independents, and 84 percent of Republicans think clean energy should be a priority.

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• 83 percent of Americans think that protecting the environment either improves economic growth and provides new jobs (58%) or has no effect on economic growth or jobs (25%). Only 17 percent think it reduces economic growth and costs jobs. When there is a conflict between the two, however, 62 percent of Americans say it is more important to protect the environment, even if it reduces economic growth, while 38 percent say economic growth is more important, even if it leads to economic problems. Among registered voters, 91 percent of Democrats, 77 percent of Independents, and 70 percent of Republicans think that overall, protecting the environment either improves economic growth and provides new jobs, or has no effect on economic growth or jobs. When there is a conflict between the two, however, 72 percent of Democrats, 63 percent of Independents, and 45 percent of Republicans say it is more important to protect the environment than economic growth.

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Who Should Act on Global Warming?

• 70 percent of Americans say that corporations and industry should be doing more to address global warming, which is back up to levels last seen in the fall of 2008.

• 67 percent of Americans also say that citizens themselves should be doing more to address the issue.

• 58 percent of Americans say that Congress should be doing more to address global warming. The proportion that say Congress should be doing “much more” has increased four percentage points since May 2011 (up to 23%).

• 54 percent of Americans say that President Obama should be doing more to address the issue, while 25 percent say he is currently doing the right amount. Only 21 percent say he should do less.

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Support for Climate & Energy Policies

• More than two-thirds of Americans (68%) say the U.S. should make either a large-scale or medium-scale effort to reduce global warming, even if this has large or moderate economic costs.

• A large majority of Americans (79%) supports funding more research into renewable energy sources. Among registered voters, 91 percent of Democrats, 80 percent of Independents, and 74 percent of Republicans support this policy. However, perhaps due in part to news stories about Solyndra, “strong support” for more research into renewables fell from 53 percent in the fall of 2008 to 36 percent in March 2012. Meanwhile opposition to renewable energy research more than doubled, from 8 percent in 2008 to 21 percent in 2012.

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• 76 percent support providing tax rebates for people who purchase more fuel-efficient vehicles or solar panels. Among registered voters, 89 percent of Democrats, 76 percent of Independents, and 63 percent of Republicans support this policy.

• 75 percent support regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant. Among registered voters, 84 percent of Democrats, 77 percent of Independents, and 67 percent of Republicans support this policy.

• 65 percent of Americans support an international treaty requiring the U.S. to cut carbon dioxide 90% by the year 2050. Among registered voters, 78 percent of Democrats, 64 percent of Independents, and 42 percent of Republicans support this policy.

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• 63 percent support requiring utilities to produce at least 20% of their electricity from renewable energy sources, even if household costs increase by $100 a year. “Strong support,” however, has decreased from 31 percent in 2008 to 20 percent now. Among registered voters, 74 percent of Democrats, 65 percent of Independents, and 47 percent of Republicans support this policy.

• 63 percent say the U.S. should act on its own to reduce greenhouse gases, regardless of what other nations do.

• 62 percent support expanded offshore drilling for oil and natural gas off the U.S. coast. Likely due to the BP oil spill, however, “strongly support” for expanding offshore drilling for oil and natural gas off the U.S. coast has fallen from 37 percent in 2008 to 24 percent now.

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There is a substantial difference between the two parties on offshore drilling, however. 89 percent of Republicans support it, compared to 53 percent of Democrats. Among those who “strongly support” offshore drilling, the difference is even greater: 42 percent of Republicans strongly support it vs. 15 percent of Democrats. By contrast, only 2 percent of Republicans “strongly oppose” expanded offshore drilling, while 20 percent of Democrats do.

• 61 percent of Americans support holding the fossil fuel industry (coal, oil and natural gas) responsible for “all the hidden costs we pay for citizens who get sick from polluted air and water, military costs to maintain our access to foreign oil, and the environmental costs of spills and accidents.” Among registered voters, 68 percent of Democrats, 72 percent of Independents, and 54 percent of Republicans support this policy.

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• Likely due to the Fukushima nuclear accident, support for building more nuclear power plants has fallen dramatically – from 61 percent who supported it in 2008 to just 42 percent now. Among registered voters, 37 percent of Democrats, 48 percent of Independents, and 53 percent of Republicans support this policy.

• The country is divided about whether to eliminate all federal subsidies for all form of energy (oil, gas, coal, nuclear and renewables) – 47 percent of Americans support ending all energy subsidies while 54 percent oppose it.1 Interestingly, however, there are not substantial political differences, with Democrats, Independents, and Republicans all about equally supportive or opposed.

• Only 50 percent of Americans have heard about the proposed Keystone XL pipeline. Among registered voters, Republicans (66%) and Independents (69%) are more likely to have heard of it, compared to Democrats (48%). Of those Americans who have heard of it, two-thirds (69%) support building the pipeline, including 87 percent of registered Republicans, 68 percent of Independents, and 50 percent of Democrats.

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Voting Intentions

• By a margin of 3 to 1, Americans say they would be more likely to vote for a political candidate who supports a “revenue neutral” tax shift. This shift would increase taxes on coal, oil and natural gas, and reduce the federal income tax by an equal amount, while creating jobs and decreasing pollution. 2 61 percent of Americans say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports such a tax shift, while 20 percent say they would be less likely.

Among registered voters, Republicans would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports such a tax shift by a 2 to 1 margin – 51 percent would be more likely to vote for such a candidate, while 25 percent would be less likely. Independents would be more likely to vote for such a candidate by a nearly 3 to 1 margin – 60 percent vs. 22 percent. Finally, Democrats would be more likely to vote for such a candidate by a more than 5 to 1 margin – 74 percent vs. 13 percent.

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• 55 percent of Americans say that global warming will be either the single most important (3%) or one of several important issues (52%) in determining their vote for president this year.

Among registered voters, 63 percent of Democrats say global warming will be either the single most important issue (3%) or one of several important issues (60%) in determining their vote. 59 percent of Independents and 43 percent of Republicans say it will be either the single most important issue (2% respectively) or one of several important issues determining their vote (57% and 41% respectively).

(NOTE: These results are from a nationally representative survey conducted by Knowledge Networks. The survey was fielded March 12 through March 30, 2012 with 1,008 American adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percent, with 95 percent confidence.)

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