WORLD SUN STILL GROWING

Global Solar PV Installations in 2012 to Grow Despite Strong Headwinds

Raj Prabhu, September 2012 (Mecom Capital Group)

“Solar demand continues to defy odds so far in 2012, which may result in another year of growth contrary to pessimistic views early in the year. Module prices continue to fall spurring demand. Tier 1 modules are now in the ~$0.70 range, after falling about 20 percent this year, and about 60 percent since the beginning of 2011. Negative forecasts have turned positive.

“Stubborn European demand, especially from Germany and Italy, is a big reason why the markets are doing well. Germany has already installed about 5 GW as of July, and is on pace to match [or exceed] last year’s 7.5 GW installations…[Italy] could end the year with around 3.5 GW in installations.”

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“The United States continues to do well, spurred by state RPSs and solar lease programs, while China set a goal of 21 GW of solar installations by 2015 and is looking to install about 5 GW this year. Japan’s new FiT program is one of the most attractive in the industry and could help drive the country’s large scale solar market which was previously non –existent. India, through its national and state programs, is on pace to install about 1 GW this year.

“…[Many countries have cut subsidies] as growth around the world has slowed and serious efforts are being made to cut debt…[The] fall in module prices has been the demand driver in most markets…[but] the oversupply of [low cost Chinese panels] resulted in the United States imposing anti-dumping tariffs at about 35 percent on Chinese solar manufacturers..[I]nitial reaction was that it would hurt demand due to higher cost of panels. The European Union (EU) has now followed suit, making things much more serious as EU is a much larger market for Chinese panels…China is talking about retaliation…[T]his uncertainty does not bode well for the markets going into 2013…”

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