CLIMATE GETTING HOTTER FASTER – STUDY

Climate change 'likely to be more severe than some models predict'; Scientists analysing climate models warn we should expect high temperature rises – meaning more extreme weather, sooner

Fiona Harvey, 8 November 2012 (UK Guardian)

“…A new study by the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) found that climate model projections showing a greater rise in global temperature were likely to be more accurate than those showing a smaller rise. This means not only a higher level of warming, but also that the resulting problems – including floods, droughts, sea level rise and fiercer storms and other extreme weather – would be correspondingly more severe and would come sooner than expected.

“…A Less Cloudy Future] is based on an analysis of how well computer models estimating the future climate reproduce the humidity in the tropics and subtropics that has been observed in recent years…[Cloud cover is] a major influence on warming…[More accurate models showing increased cloud cover] showed the highest global temperature rises, in future if emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase…Extreme weather has been much in evidence around the globe this year, with superstorm Sandy's devastating impact on New York the most recent example…”

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“The new NCAR findings come just weeks ahead of a crucial UN conference in Doha, where ministers will discuss the future of international action on greenhouse gas emissions…The next comprehensive study of our knowledge of climate change and its effects will come in 2014, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change publishes its fifth assessment report…

“…There has already been increasing evidence of a warming effect this year…The International Energy Agency warned earlier this year that on current emissions trends the world would be in for 6C of warming – a level scientists warn would lead to chaos. Scientists have put the safety limit at 2C, beyond which warming is likely to become irreversible…”

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