THE WORLD’S SOLAR POLYSILICON PROBLEM

Solar Polysilicon Update: For Material Suppliers, Worst Is Yet To Come

20 November 2012 (Solar Industry)

“Global demand and pricing in October for solar polysilicon fell at the highest rate seen since February, indicating that supply still exceeds demand, according to the IHS Solar Polysilicon Price Index…Spot market pricing for 9N solar polysilicon in October plunged by more than 9%, while the contract segment decreased by about 1%. Pricing for the 6N to 8N grade fell by 7% on the spot market, and the contract segment tumbled by more than 8%.

“Such retreats continued the pattern of weak demand and general price erosion that has plagued the solar polysilicon market since January,…Pricing is expected to drop further in November before a potential rebound…Spot market pricing for solar polysilicon may bottom out and then rise slightly at the start of 2013, according to IHS…”

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“…[The] turn for the positive may be short-lived, with the pricing driven by expectations of improving market conditions, rather than a true balancing of supply and demand…All told, spot market pricing in December 2012 and January 2013 for solar polysilicon in the 6N to 8N grade is expected to rise by 2.4% - the first increase since January 2012, and a dramatic change from the 8.5% plunge in September and the 7% drop in October…[9N and higher-grade polysilicon] spot market pricing will be flat during the same time period…

“…[S]pot prices will remain significantly lower than those on the contract market, causing solar polysilicon suppliers to continue to cut contract prices…[The indication is] supply will remain in excess of demand…[and pricing will] decline later in 2013…On the spot market, polysilicon is sold for cash by third parties and delivered immediately…[O]n the contract market, polysilicon is sold directly by suppliers on credit, often with long-term agreements for delivery and pricing…When spot market prices eventually rise above those of contracts, the period of oversupply and price decreases will have come to an end.”

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