NewEnergyNews: BIG 4Q FORECAST FOR GLOBAL SOLAR

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    Thursday, December 20, 2012

    BIG 4Q FORECAST FOR GLOBAL SOLAR

    Global Solar Consensus Forecast – Strong Finish Expected Thanks To Germany, Again

    Raj Prabhu, December 17, 2012 (Mercom Capital Group)

    “This year (2012) has been a rough and tumble year for the solar industry…[There were] anti-dumping and protectionist measures all over the world as countries tried to rescue their own manufacturers in the face of massive over supply and ever-falling prices…[The United States announced] final anti-dumping tariffs against Chinese manufacturers (which has yet to have much of an impact on U.S. installations), followed by the European Union filing a similar case also against the Chinese.

    “…China announced its own anti-dumping case against polysilicon suppliers from the United States, EU and South Korea while India just initiated an anti-dumping investigation regarding imports of solar cells against Malaysia, China, Taiwan and the U.S., further escalating the solar trade wars.”

    “…At the beginning of the year, installation forecasts for 2012 looked pretty scary. Germany was not expected to install more than 3.5 GW and everyone was looking for the emerging markets to supplement the demand. But Germany…has once again come to the rescue, and could be the reason why PV installations will show growth year over year in a challenging 2012.

    “Low module prices continue to drive installations; Tier 1 module prices are hovering around $0.65 and will probably end up down about 30 percent this year. Along with Germany, some of the markets that have been driving installation growth this year are Italy, China, France, Japan, U.S. and India…”

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