QUICK NEWS, December 19: RAPIDLY RISING DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLES; U.S. OFFSHORE WIND TO GROW SLOWLY; SMART METERS COMING ON

RAPIDLY RISING DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLES Renewable Distributed Energy Generation Installations Will Reach Nearly $86 Billion in Market Value by 2017

December 12, 2012 (Pike Research/Navigant)

“Renewable distributed energy generation (RDEG) technologies, which contrast sharply with the traditional centralized utility model of large-scale power generation, represent a growing opportunity for the electric power industry. Worldwide, utility companies, investors, and policymakers are testing programs and business models to support this industry…

“…According to a recent report from Pike Research…the RDEG market will grow from less than $69 billion in market value in 2012 to nearly $86 billion in 2017…[but] will require the evolution of both technologies and business practices…”

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“The new RDEG model and traditional, centralized systems are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and the former is still in its early stages. RDEG installations today represent less than 1 percent of total electricity generating capacity installed worldwide…[but in many places,] RDEG technologies are more cost-effective than centralized installations that require transmission to population centers…

“…Europe will continue to be the largest market for RDEG during the 2012-2017 forecast period, with most countries expected to hit their renewable energy targets, the study finds, but Asia Pacific, led by China, will grow the fastest as untapped domestic markets for RDEG installations emerge.”

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U.S. OFFSHORE WIND TO GROW SLOWLY Report: U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Progress Expected To Be 'Lackluster' Through 2016

17 December 2012 (North American Windpower)

“Offshore wind energy installations are expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 44% between 2011 and 2016, with 18 GW of installations expected by the end of that period, according to a new analysis from MAKE Consulting. Much of that growth can be attributed to favorable policy in Europe and China…Europe will [account] for 62% of total installations in the 2011-2016 period…77% will be driven by Germany and the U.K…striving toward their ambitious 2020 offshore wind targets of 18 GW and 10 GW, respectively.

“…[T]he Asia Pacific region is expected to install 6.6 GW of offshore wind through 2016, representing 36% of the global offshore wind energy market. Although China will remain the largest offshore wind market in the Asia Pacific, the emergence of South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan will supplement growth during that period…[P]rogress in the U.S. is expected to be lackluster, due to low gas and electricity prices, an ample onshore resource and weak political commitment to renewables…”

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“Offshore wind asset ownership will remain dominated by European utilities and developers, with Vattenfall and DONG Energy leading the way…MAKE expects increasing interest in asset ownership from the financial sector. Pension funds and insurance companies are attracted to the sector due to the return expectations of new developments relative to other asset classes, as well as the improving risk profile of offshore wind, as the industry matures. China Three Gorges, Guodian and Marubeni are the top Asian offshore wind asset owners…

“Lowering the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) will be key to supporting future offshore wind energy growth…[T]he current LCOE range for offshore wind is 120-180 euros/MWh, with most assets around 140-160 euros/MWh…The report estimates that larger turbines with resultant fewer cables and foundations mean that capital costs could drop by nearly 17%, and the LCOE could drop by 20% by the end of the decade, toward 115-120 euros/MWh…[T]ransmission infrastructure build-out is another challenge…”

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SMART METERS COMING ON Worldwide Smart Meter Shipments Surpass 15.4 Million Units in 3Q 2012, According to IDC Energy Insights; Cellular AMI Communications Will Present Growth Opportunity Through 2016

December 10, 2012

“Worldwide smart meter shipments surpassed 15.4 million units in the third quarter of 2012 (3Q12), representing year-over-year growth of 126.9% and a 58.6% increase over the second quarter, according to the IDC Energy Insights Worldwide Quarterly Smart Meter Tracker…Growth was observed across all regions except for the Americas…Latin and South America remain promising, but scale projects have not yet emerged to replace the decline in North American shipments.

“The Asia/Pacific region grew at an astonishing rate of 516.8% year over year and 142.02% sequentially. Much of this growth can be attributed to China; Chinese utilities are beginning to equip meters deployed under previous metering tenders with communications. The Asia/Pacific region will remain a source of growth for the smart metering industry in coming years as Japan, Korea, Oceana and even South and Southeast Asia begin to ramp up advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) deployments.”

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“…[T] he Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region exhibited growth of 54.5% year over year and 8.5% sequentially…well below the expectations set by previous regulatory targets…[T]he AMI industry is becoming increasingly frustrated with Europe…[but] there are no indications that meter shipments will pick up significantly before 2014…

“…[G]rowth of cellular AMI communications [is speeding up]…[It]will reach 17% of smart meter shipments in the more mature metering markets of Europe and North America by 2016, up from less than 8% in 2012…[M]any of the basic metering upgrades underway in Asia/Pacific and other emerging markets are likely to deploy power line communications (PLC)…[H]igh bandwidth networks have also been deployed…3G and 4G-WiMax utility networks deployed in Australia are currently being utilized as common infrastructure for metering and distribution monitoring and control…[but] may eventually be displaced by FTTP (fiber-to-the-premises) through the Australian National Broadband Network...”

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