SOLAR NEXT YEAR

Top-10 Solar Market Predictions For 2013

December 19, 2012 (EQ International)

“The photovoltaic industry is in the midst of wrenching change…10 predictions for 2013 from the IHS solar research team…[include, 1] The global PV market will achieve double-digit installation growth in 2013, but market revenue will fall to $75 billion… [Industry revenues] peaked at $94 billion in 2011, but fell sharply to $77 billion in 2012…on the back of lower volume growth and continued system price declines…

“…[2] The solar module industry will consolidate further in 2013…[F]ewer than 150 companies will remain in the photovoltaic upstream value chain, down from more than 750 companies in 2010…The large expense of building and then operating integrated facilities that are underutilized will be more than many can handle financially…[3] PV module prices will stabilize in 2H 2013 as oversupply eases…”

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“…[4] Solar trade wars will rage on in 2013, yielding few winners…[S]ix different solar trade cases [proceed,] involving China, Europe, the United States and India…[5] South Africa and Romania will emerge as PV markets to watch in 2013…[6] Double-digit returns remain possible for European PV projects in 2013…[Subsidy schemes make all EU countries attractive] for both private and institutional investors…[7] Solar will surpass wind in the United States…[partly because] of the near-term uncertainty over the federal production tax credit for wind…[and partly because] of solar PV’s increasing competitiveness…

“…[8] China will become the world’s largest PV market…[Its predicted 6 gigawatts will allow it] to surpass Germany…[9] Energy storage will transform the solar industry…IHS forecasts a big jump in the number of residential PV systems installed with batteries attached…[10] New technology will revive equipment vendors’ prospects…help PV manufacturers [and suppliers] cut costs, increase margins and ultimately distinguish themselves…’

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