EMERGING SUN RISING AS DEVELOPED SUN FADES
Playing Catch-Up: Emerging Markets Outpacing Developed Regions
Michael Barker, April 9, 2013 (SolarBuzz)
“Recent findings in two NPD Solarbuzz reports, covering the Middle East & Africa and Emerging Asia-Pacific & Central Asia, indicate that both of these areas are set for considerable growth in 2013 with annual demand projected to hit 1 GW in each region. While this represents tremendous growth, especially compared to softer growth in European markets, these emerging regions still have some way to go to catch-up annual demand volumes and match legacy markets in terms of driving global PV demand…
“…[But] higher growth rates in emerging regions are rapidly closing the demand-share gap with legacy markets…While some of the countries included in Emerging in this analysis are now major drivers of end-market demand (for example, China and India) it has only been in the last few years that these countries have begun to rival legacy markets such as Germany, Japan, and the US.”
“This is highlighted via the market share data…which clearly shows that up until 2011, the [Western/Japan, (W/J)] grouping accounted for over 90% of global demand every year. This was because during the 2007-2011 period, global end-market demand was growing by strong double-digits globally. Therefore, developed markets maintained their dominance in terms of driving demand. 2011 was the year this began to change as policy changes – particularly in Europe – slowed growth in the overall W/J region while lower prices and positive policy environments in the Emerging region (in this case driven by China) caused Y/Y growth rates to rise to almost 300% and Emerging regions began to gain demand share.
“…[G]lobal Y/Y growth in 2012 fell to single-digits as stronger growth in Emerging regions could not compensate for the annual demand decline in the W/J grouping…While legacy markets overall are still expected to decrease in 2013 – primarily a result of European declines – global growth is anticipated to increase as Emerging market growth increases. In the long-term, a return to double-digit growth rates is anticipated for both major groupings as low installed system prices are driving end-market expansion in new regions and making PV installations attractive in legacy markets even with policy reductions.”
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