QUICK NEWS, April 1: WHAT THE PRESIDENT’S SCIENCE ADVISORS ADVISE; EUROPE BUILDING BIGGER TURBINES FOR THE OCEAN; HOW THE SOLAR TRADE WAR WILL AFFECT THE PV BIZ

WHAT THE PRESIDENT’S SCIENCE ADVISORS ADVISE …six key components for consideration that we deem central to your climate change strategy and policy…

March 2013 (President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology)

“…The first component aims to reduce the damage resulting from changes in climate (“adaptation”), while the last five aim to reduce the pace and magnitude of these changes (“mitigation”). Both approaches are essential parts of an integrated strategy for dealing with climate change. Mitigation is needed to avoid a degree of climate change that would be unmanageable despite efforts to adapt. Adaptation is needed because the climate is already changing and some further change is inevitable regardless of what is done to reduce its pace and magnitude…

“…(1) Focus on national preparedness for climate change…(2) Continue efforts to “decarbonize” the economy, with an initial focus on the electricity sector…”

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“…(3) Level the playing field for clean energy and energy efficiency technologies by removing regulatory obstacles, addressing market failures, adjusting tax policies, and providing time-limited subsidies for clean energy when appropriate…(4) Sustain research on next-generation clean-energy technologies, and remove obstacles for their eventual deployment…

“…(5) Take additional steps to establish U.S. leadership on climate change internationally…(6) Conduct an initial Quadrennial Energy Review (QER)…”

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EUROPE GROWING BIGGER TURBINES FOR THE OCEAN Mammoth wind turbines will cut offshore costs by 40% in 7 years, developer says

March 19, 2013 (ClimateWire via E&E Publishing)

“…Dong Energy, the world's largest developer and operator of offshore wind farms [and a major developer and owner of conventional energy sources], aims to [build unprecedentedly large turbines to] cut the cost of wind energy in the [UK sector of the] North Sea to less than €100 ($130) per megawatt-hour by 2020 compared with €160 ($209) last year.

“Dong's target is actually more ambitious than that of the U.K. government, which wants developers to cut the cost of offshore wind to £100 ($152) per MWh by 2020. It still wouldn't be as cheap as onshore wind, which currently costs about $85 per MWh, while coal costs $82 and natural gas costs $71…To get to €100 per MWh, Dong plans to radically increase the size of the offshore turbines it will install, from 3 to 4 megawatts currently to 8 to 10 MW in 2016 through 2020. Such turbines don't even exist yet…”

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“Vestas, the world's second-largest wind turbine maker, is working [with Dong] on an 8 MW offshore turbine, but it won't have a prototype ready for offshore testing until next year…[and] Dong, which last month asked the Danish government for an equity injection of $1.4 billion after losing money on natural gas storage investments in Germany, is planning to test two new Siemens 6 MW turbines [in Q2 2013 and both Siemens and GE are working toward 10 MW turbines]…

“…[O]ffshore wind capacity [is projected to] grow to 40 gigawatts by 2020 from 4.9 GW now. Germany, which has pledged to shut down all its nuclear reactors by 2022, wants 25 GW of offshore wind installed by 2030, up from only about 280 MW now…[Denmark had 923 MW installed and 400 MW under construction in 2013 and is planning an additional 500 MW. It wants to get 50 percent of its electricity from wind] by 2020…France plans to install 6 GW of offshore wind, tidal and wave power by 2020…And the [UK, which] has 3 GW of offshore wind capacity, plans to increase that sixfold to 18 GW by 2020…[T]he Boston Consulting Group says the industry will fall short of 40 GW by 2020 because of lack of funding…[and] says a capacity of 25 GW is more realistic…”

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HOW THE SOLAR TRADE WAR WILL AFFECT THE PV BIZ PV: Europe holds the upside wildcard, but trade war impact should not be underestimated

Michael Barker, 21 March 2013 (PV Magazine)

“…[Europe’s market share PV lead is quickly being] overtaken by the Asian market which, as a region, is being driven by the major Asia-Pacific markets of China, Japan, India, and Australia…as European policy-makers have been rapidly and aggressively cutting PV incentive programs…If these policy-reductions continue, the European market is anticipated to contract by another 26% in 2013…[I]n Asia, strong government support has led to…Y/Y growth of approximately 50% in 2012 and growth of over 50% is anticipated in 2013…

“…[F]orecasts for end-market demand can quickly change as policy adjustments have immediate and dramatic impacts…[G]iven the European market’s maturity, it would be easy for the region to rapidly process any positive policy movement into a strong uptick in demand…Growth in the European market would help push 2013 end-market volumes past the 40 GW mark, thus getting closer to the 45 GW supply levels currently in play…[but]a European rebound is difficult to imagine…”

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“…[Demand from China is projected to account for more than 50% of total Asian end-market volumes…However, given the ongoing trade disputes, many of which directly target Chinese-produced components, the China/Europe balance can be examined another way…[I]f no Chinese produced modules can enter the European market…European demand is set to exceed 12 GW in 2013…Global non-Chinese PV module capacity – both c-Si and thin-film – is approximately twice that level…

“While this may give some hope that the industry could achieve rationalization and increase prices if it weren’t for China…incentive policies are not going to be reinstated to previous levels and the PV industry has reached a point where future growth is dependent on current or lower pricing levels…[E]ven if supply/demand rationalization was achieved in the near term, the market would need to maintain current pricing levels in order to maintain demand…[T]he impact of the trade wars cannot be underestimated. With Europe effectively being the ‘swing state’ in 2013 PV demand, the timing of the EU trade investigation could not have come at a more critical junction…”

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