THE ENORMOUS LED OPPORTUNITY

The Next Apple Will Be in LED Lighting

Lisa Ann Pinkerton, May 14, 2013 (Technica)

“…Looking at the landscape today, energy-efficient lighting, namely LEDs, is the next major market to reap the benefits of going digital…Historically, such inflection points have proved to open a wide array of new markets, business models and product capabilities…Even Steve Job’s former counsel Randall Sosnick is betting on LEDs. Now CEO of NEXT Lighting, he’s producing highly-innovative, reliable and affordable LED replacements for commercial florescent lighting…

“…Just as the iPhone did for mobile computing, NEXT Lighting’s innovative design can serve as a platform for a new wave of lighting applications without the need to completely replace fixtures…Cree has managed to get its consumer LED bulbs down below $10 a piece and Phillips isn’t far behind…These are just a few of the many market convergences that indicate the tipping point for LEDs is here…Over the past 10 years, LED lighting as grown at a tremendous pace. The LED manufacturer Cree witnessed over 150% growth rate since 2007…[S]mall startups like Albeo Technologies have seen revenue climb 620 percent since 2009, to over $10.5 million in 2011. Their recent acquisition by GE Lighting is just another indicator…”

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“…Since 2011 alone, the LED industry has seen a nearly 30% drop in prices…[W]ith increasing market demand, higher energy costs, and improved technologies and you have a perfect storm…of classic inflection points…Street lighting is considered a gateway application…The potential energy savings of LED is upwards of 40 percent for most municipalities…[and] the cost of installing an LED street light is very similar to sending a bucket truck to change a bulb…

“…Pike Research says…unit shipments of LED street lights [will] rise to more than 17 million by 2020…[C]ommercial/industrial applications will follow…[and then] the residential market will blow the space wide open…Lighting represents 19 percent of global electricity….McKinsey & Company [said] nearly $25 billion (conservatively) is expected to go LED by 2020…Unlike the sheer luck of investing in Apple when it was $16 a share, the writing is on the wall for LED market expansion…”

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