NewEnergyNews: THE PRICE OF SOLAR GOING LOWER AND LOWER

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Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

The challenge now: To make every day Earth Day.

YESTERDAY

THINGS-TO-THINK-ABOUT THURSDAY, December 8:

  • TTTA Thursday- The Record Of The New EPA Head
  • TTTA Thursday-The Undeveloped New Energy
  • TTTA Thursday-Walking On New Energy
  • TTTA Thursday-Electric Tractor For Emissions-Free.Farming
  • THE DAY BEFORE

  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Turning Distributed Energy From Threat To Opportunity
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Solar Policy Action Heats Up
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Maine’s Almost Solar Policy Breakthrough
  • THE DAY BEFORE THE DAY BEFORE

  • TODAY’S STUDY: How To Balance Competing Solar Interests
  • QUICK NEWS, December 6: Sliver Of Hope? Al Gore In Climate Change Meet With Donald Trump; The Opportunity In New Energy; Google Seizing New Energy Opportunity
  • THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • TODAY’S STUDY: A Way For New Energy To Meet Peak Demand
  • QUICK NEWS, December 5: Trial Of The Century Coming On Climate; The Wind-Solar Synergy; The Still Rising Sales Of Cars With Plugs
  • AND THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • Weekend Video: Trump Truth And Climate Change
  • Weekend Video: The Daily Show Talks Pipeline Politics
  • Weekend Video: Beyond Polar Bears – The Real Science Of Climate Change
  • THE LAST DAY UP HERE

  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Aussie Farmers Worrying About Climate Change
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-The Climate Change Solution At Hand, Part 1
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-The Climate Change Solution At Hand, Part 2
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-New Energy And Historic Buildings In Europe
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    Anne B. Butterfield of Daily Camera and Huffington Post, f is an occasional contributor to NewEnergyNews

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    Some of Anne's contributions:

  • Another Tipping Point: US Coal Supply Decline So Real Even West Virginia Concurs (REPORT), November 26, 2013
  • SOLAR FOR ME BUT NOT FOR THEE ~ Xcel's Push to Undermine Rooftop Solar, September 20, 2013
  • NEW BILLS AND NEW BIRDS in Colorado's recent session, May 20, 2013
  • Lies, damned lies and politicians (October 8, 2012)
  • Colorado's Elegant Solution to Fracking (April 23, 2012)
  • Shale Gas: From Geologic Bubble to Economic Bubble (March 15, 2012)
  • Taken for granted no more (February 5, 2012)
  • The Republican clown car circus (January 6, 2012)
  • Twenty-Somethings of Colorado With Skin in the Game (November 22, 2011)
  • Occupy, Xcel, and the Mother of All Cliffs (October 31, 2011)
  • Boulder Can Own Its Power With Distributed Generation (June 7, 2011)
  • The Plunging Cost of Renewables and Boulder's Energy Future (April 19, 2011)
  • Paddling Down the River Denial (January 12, 2011)
  • The Fox (News) That Jumped the Shark (December 16, 2010)
  • Click here for an archive of Butterfield columns

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    Some details about NewEnergyNews and the man behind the curtain: Herman K. Trabish, Agua Dulce, CA., Doctor with my hands, Writer with my head, Student of New Energy and Human Experience with my heart

    email: herman@NewEnergyNews.net

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      A tip of the NewEnergyNews cap to Phillip Garcia for crucial assistance in the design implementation of this site. Thanks, Phillip.

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    Pay a visit to the HARRY BOYKOFF page at Basketball Reference, sponsored by NewEnergyNews and Oil In Their Blood.

  • ---------------
  • WEEKEND VIDEOS, December 10-11:

  • A Climate Change Denier’s Lies Exposed
  • The Good News Numbers On The EV Boom
  • “This Is Just The Beginning”

    Friday, June 21, 2013

    THE PRICE OF SOLAR GOING LOWER AND LOWER

    GTM Research’s Module Cost Outlook: 36 Cents Isn’t As Low As You Think; In which we finally admit to not owning a crystal ball.

    Shyam Mehta, June 20, 2013 (Greentech Media)

    "GTM Research’s latest update on the future of module manufacturing costs…[forecasted a] top-line 2017 base case estimate of $0.36 per watt for low-cost Chinese manufacturers…36 cents per watt at the end of 2017 implies a compounded annual decline of less than 8 percent from Jinko Solar’s reported Q4 2012 manufacturing cost of 54 cents per watt (down to 51 cents per watt in Q1 2013)…

    "…That is a very small rate of decline compared to the cost reductions experienced over the past three years. From Q4 2009 to Q4 2012, Trina Solar’s all-in module cost dropped from $1.29 per watt to $0.61 per watt, which is a compounded annual decline of 62 percent…[O]ur base-case forecast has a relatively conservative outlook on metrics such as consumables pricing, plant scale-up and technology parameter trends (increasing automation aside) than in years prior…"

    "…[The] low-case estimate of $0.29 per watt…[shows] there is definitely room to run below our base-case estimate under favorable conditions…[but] cost levels so low would [not necessarily] trigger hitherto unforeseen levels of demand for PV due to price elasticity…[A] reduction of around $0.20 per watt in module prices (from $0.62 per watt at the end of 2012 to $0.42 per watt in 2017) is…[a]ssuming an installed cost of $2.25 per watt for a utility-scale system in the U.S. right now…a system cost reduction of less than 10 percent…[T]he burden of influencing meaningful system cost reductions in the future lies firmly on the shoulders of the BOS side of the equation…

    "There is considerable uncertainty involved in forecasting…[A] realistic range for best-in-class manufacturing costs in Q4 2017 is about $0.23 per watt wide, from $0.29 per watt in the low case to $0.52 per watt in the high case…[T]he risk is skewed toward the downside. It’s also worth noting that our low-case projections do not incorporate adoption of a number of advanced technology platforms…all of which could serve to lower manufacturing costs to levels even lower than the numbers laid out here…"

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