TODAY’S STUDY: WORLD WIND NOW
The World Wind Energy Association 2012 Report
May 2013 (World Wind Energy Association)
• The worldwide wind capacity reached 282’275 Megawatt, out of which 44’609 megawatt were added in 2012, more than ever before.
• Wind power showed a growth rate of 19,2 %, the lowest rate in more than a decade.
• All wind turbines installed by the end of 2012 worldwide can provide 580 Terawatt-hours per annum, more than 3 % of the global electricity demand.
• The wind sector in 2012 had a turnover of 60 billion Euro/75 billion USD.
• Altogether, 100 countries and regions used wind power for electricity generation; Iceland has become the 100th country that is using wind power.
• China and USA both installed around 13 Gigawatt of new wind turbines; USA added most of it in second half of the year in a rush to avoid the anticipated PTC expiration.
o Asia accounted for the largest share of new installations (36,3 %), followed by North America (31,3 %) and Europe (27,5 %). Latin America stood for 3.9 % and Australia/Oceania for 0,8 %. Africa (0,2 %) is still a tiny wind market.
o Latin America and Eastern Europe continue to be the most dynamic world regions while Africa showed stagnation, with only Tunisia and Ethiopia installing new wind farms.
o China continued to be the by far largest Asian market and added 13 Gigawatt, however, significantly less than in the previous year.
o India was again the third largest market for new wind turbines worldwide, adding 2,5 GW. The third largest Asian wind market, Japan, still grew very slowly and installed less than newcomer Pakistan.
• North America:
o The US market set a new record and became the world’s largest market for new wind turbines, adding 13 GW.
o The Canadian market slowed down and grew below the global average.
o Germany continued its role as the largest and most stable market in Europe with 31 GW, followed by Spain with 22,8 GW.
o UK took over the position as second largest European market for new turbines from Spain which installed even less than Italy.
o Italy, France and the UK continued to be the medium-sized markets, with total capacity between 7,5 and 8,5 GW. Poland, Romania and Sweden became major markets for new turbines.
• The share of offshore wind in the overall capacity increased to 1,9 %, after 1,5 % in 2011.
• Policy uncertainties in major markets represent a major barrierfor wind penetration.
• WWEA expects a global capacity of more than 500’000 Megawatt by the year 2016. Around 1’000’000 Megawatt are possible by the year 2020.
General Situation: New Record in New Installations
Without doubt wind power has become a pillar of the energy systems in many countries and is recognised as a reliable and affordble source of electricity. In the year 2012, the worldwide wind capacity reached 282’275 Megawatt, after 236’749 Megawatt in 2011, 196’944 Megawatt in 2010 and 159’742 MW in 2009.
The market for new wind turbines reached a new record: 44’609 Megawatt were installed in 2012, an increase of 12% compared with 2011 when 39’805 Megawatt were erected.
The contribution of wind power to the energy supply has reached a substantial share even on the global level: All wind turbines installed around the globe by the end of 2011 contribute potentially 580 Terawatthours to the worldwide electricity supply, more than 3 % of the global electricity demand.
In the year 2012, 100 countries were identified where wind energy was used for electricity generation. The 100th entrant on the list is Iceland, a country which has already almost 100 % of its energy supply coming from renewable energy. 46 countries installed new wind turbines, four less than in the previous year and after even 52 in 2010.
The turnover of the wind sector worldwide reached 60 billion € (75 billion US$) in 2012, after 50 billion € (65 billion US$) in the year 2011.
Lowest Worldwide Growth Rate in More Than a Decade
Although the year 2012 brought a new record in new installations, the markets have cooled down in relative terms.
A very good indicator for the vitality of the market development is the average growth rate. The growth rate is the relation between the new installed wind power capacity and the installed capacity of the previous year.
After an average growth of 30 % in the past decade, the growth has decreased substantially in the past three years: In 2012, the global growth went down to 19,1 %, the lowest rate in two decades. Already the year 2011 had a very low rate, with 20,3 %.
For the first time, the longer-term trend discontinued that the installed wind capacity doubles every third year. In 2009, there was a global wind capacity of 160 GW, compared with 282 GW in 2011…
Strongest Growth in Latin America and Eastern Europe…
Top Wind Markets 2012: Diversity in Big Five Markets
Since many years, the wind industry has been driven by the Big Five markets: China, USA, Germany, Spain, and India. These countries have represented the largest share of wind power during the last two decades. In 2012, they represented 207 GW, or 73 % of the worldwide wind capacity, only slightly less than in the previous year. However, their market position remained strong as they added 32 GW, 10 % more than in the year 2011 (29 GW), or 72 % of the new installations.
At the same time, the top 10 markets increased their capacity additions from 35 GW to 37 GW (83 % of the total new capacity) while their overall wind capacity share decreased from 87 % in 2011 to 86 % in 2012.
Amongst the top markets, China and USA have both played a very strong role: Both countries accounted each for 29 % of the world wind market 2012. China showed a significant decrease of its global market share, which peaked in the year 2012 when every second new wind turbines was installed in this country.
The US market surprised in the second half of 2012. The main cause was without doubt the anticipated expiry of the production tax credit, the main driver of wind power investment in USA.
India and Germany both showed robust development and an increase of 2,4 GW, while the Spanish market grew only by 5 %, or 1,1 GW.
Twelve countries (compared with ten in 2011) can be seen as major markets, with turbine sales in a range between 0,5 GW and 2,5 GW: India, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Canada, Romania, Poland, Sweden, France, and Turkey.
14 (four more than in 2011) markets for new turbines had a medium size between 100 and 500 MW: Mexico, Australia, Belgium, Austria, Denmark, Bulgaria, Norway, Portugal, Ireland, Ukraine, Puerto Rico, the Netherlands, Greece, and newcomer Pakistan.
By the end of 2012, 24 countries had installations of more than 1 GW, two more than in 2011. Romania and Mexico are the new entrants of the Gigawatt club. In the year 2005, this club had only 11 members. 47 countries have today wind farms with an overall capacity of 100 MW or more, compared with 43 countries one year ago In the year 2005, only 24 countries had more than 100 MW installed capacity. In 2012, two Latin American countries installed for the first time major wind farms: Puerto Rico (125 MW) and Venezuela (30 MW).
New on the list is also Iceland, the 100th country, with a 1,6 MW wind farm. This is a remarkable step, as Iceland is blessed with geothermal and hydropower resources and managed in the past years to convert its energy supply almost 100 % to renewable energy…
Top wind markets 2012: Diversity in Big Five markets…Installed capacity by country size…Offshore wind…Continental distribution…Africa…Asia…Australia and Oceania…Europe…Latin America…North America…
Future challenges and prospects worldwide
Six major drivers will have a decisive impact on the mid-term and long-term prospects of wind power:
1. The ongoing debate on climate change and how to find emission free energy solutions.
2. The depletion of fossil as well as nuclear resources, especially reflected in the increasing oil prices which especially represent a huge burden for the developing countries.
3. An increasing number of local communities, regions and countries are roving practically that 100 % renewable energy is possible.
4. The increasing awareness regarding the hazardous risks related with the utilisation of nuclear energy, driven by reports on the nuclear disaster in Fukushima.
5. The increasing awareness regarding the potentials and actual contributions of wind and other renewable energies to an energy supply which is economically, socially as well as ecologically sustainable. <> 6. Further improvements in wind energy and related technologies, including backup and storage technologies.
In order to make use of the full potential of wind and other renewable energies, it will be of crucial importance to strengthen the related frameworks, institutions and policies. The world community as well as national governments will have to set up additional policies in favour of wind energy.
Special consideration has to be given to the deployment of renewable energy in the socalled developing countries. Incentives for decentralised and integrated 100 % renewable energy supply need to be created, again especially but not exclusively for developing countries.
Another key issue for the prospects of wind power in this context will be social acceptance. Recent studies from Scotland, Germany, the USA and Australia suggest that social acceptance is significantly higher in the case of wind farms which are owned by the local community where the wind farm is located. Obviously in such cases opposition against wind power is also significantly lower.
In general, acceptance of wind farms is high,however, people who see themselves as owners of a wind farm naturally have an even more positive attitude.
Policymakers have to draw the right conclusions from such results and introduce legislation that favours community based ownership models of wind farms. It will be of crucial importance that renewable energy eventually move into the center of the debate at the UN Climate Change conferences. Some experts have already proposed to create a completely new global forum for the worldwide expansion of renewable energies.
In order to provide more financial resources on an international level, WWEA has suggested, together with our partners of the International Renewable Energy Alliance, the creation of a Global Fund for Renewable Energy Investment.
A core element of such a fund should be a global feed-in tariff programme as a primary tool to kick-start markets for grid-connected wind power in the developing world.
In spite of the need to reinforce national and international policies and to accelerate the deployment of wind power, it can be observed that appetite for investment in wind power is strong and many projects are in the pipeline.
Further substantial growth can especially be expected in China, India, Europe and North America.
High growth rates can be expected in several Latin American, in particular in Brazil, as well as in new Asian and Eastern European markets. In the mid-term, also some of the African countries will see major investment, after all in Northern Africa, but also in South Africa.
Based on the current growth rates, WWEA revises its expectations for the future growth of the global wind capacity:
In 2016, the global capacity is expected to500’000 MW is possible. By the end of year 020, at least 1’000’000 MW can be expected installed globally.