NewEnergyNews: TODAY’S STUDY: PAST AND FUTURE PV PRICES

NewEnergyNews

Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

While the OFFICE of President remains in highest regard at NewEnergyNews, this administration's position on climate change makes it impossible to regard THIS president with respect. Below is the NewEnergyNews theme song until 2020.

The challenge now: To make every day Earth Day.

YESTERDAY

  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: How California Is Easing Off NatGas With New Energy
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Illinois cloud computing debate could open utility rate reform
  • THE DAY BEFORE

  • TODAY’S STUDY: The Value Of Transportation Elecrification
  • QUICK NEWS, December 12: The “Fight-Climate-Change” Diet; Market For Advanced EV Batteries To Quadruple By 2026; The Low Lifecycle Costs In New Energy
  • THE DAY BEFORE THE DAY BEFORE

  • TODAY’S STUDY: How The New Energy Marketplace Is Growing And Shifting
  • QUICK NEWS, December 11: N.C. Millennial Women Unite For Climate Fight; The White House Threat To New Energy; What’s Bad News In The Tax Bill For New Energy
  • THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • Weekend Video: Tesla Adds World’s Biggest Battery To Aussie Wind
  • Weekend Video: Solar And The Next Utilities
  • Weekend Video: Wind Builders On Wind
  • THE LAST DAY UP HERE

  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-The Climate Change Gourmet
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-UK Study Says Yes To Solar-Powered Electric Trains
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-First Aussie Ocean Wind Project Gets $8BIL Funding
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-EU Solar Goes Digital To Open New Services
  • --------------------------

    --------------------------

    Founding Editor Herman K. Trabish

    --------------------------

    --------------------------

    Some details about NewEnergyNews and the man behind the curtain: Herman K. Trabish, Agua Dulce, CA., Doctor with my hands, Writer with my head, Student of New Energy and Human Experience with my heart

    email: herman@NewEnergyNews.net

    -------------------

    -------------------

      A tip of the NewEnergyNews cap to Phillip Garcia for crucial assistance in the design implementation of this site. Thanks, Phillip.

    -------------------

    Pay a visit to the HARRY BOYKOFF page at Basketball Reference, sponsored by NewEnergyNews and Oil In Their Blood.

  • ---------------
  • TODAY AT NewEnergyNews, December 13:

  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: How California Is Easing Off NatGas With New Energy
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Illinois cloud computing debate could open utility rate reform

    Monday, October 14, 2013

    TODAY’S STUDY: PAST AND FUTURE PV PRICES

    Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends: Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections, 2013 Edition

    David Feldman, Galen Barbose, Robert Margolis, Naïm Darghouth, Ted James,

    Samantha Weaver, Alan Goodrich, and Ryan Wiser, July 16, 2013 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

    Introduction

    • There exists a need for reliable and comprehensive information on PV system pricing

    • Rapid market growth and changes to PV system pricing in recent years

    • Policy support for PV deployment premised on stimulating cost reductions through market scale and development

    • DOE SunShot Initiative seeks to reduce PV system prices 75% over the 2010-2020 period.

    • This briefing provides a high-level overview of historical, recent, and projected near-term PV system pricing trends in the United States, drawing on several ongoing research activities at LBNL and NREL:

    • LBNL’s annual Tracking the Sun report series

    • NREL’s bottom-up PV cost modeling

    • NREL’s synthesis of PV market data and projections.

    Executive Summary

    • Reported pricing data that, among ~50,000 PV systems installed in 2012:

    • Res. and small com. (≤10 kW) was $5.30/W (median)

    • Large com. (>100 kW) was $4.62/W (median)

    • Utility-scale (crystalline, fixed-tilt, >2 MW) was $3.35/W (capacity weighted average).

    • Modeled overnight capital cost for systems quoted in Q4 2011 (expected to be installed in 2012):

    • Residential (5.1 kW) was $4.22/W

    • Commercial (221 kW) was $3.22/W

    • Utility-scale (191.5 MW) was $2.50/W.

    • Delta between reported pricing and modeled cost is due to various factors, such as inefficient pricing, timing, geographic location, and project specifics.

    • Reported installed prices of residential and commercial PV systems declined 6%–7% per year, on average, from 1998–2012, and by 6%–14% from 2011–2012, depending on system size.

    • In near future analysts expect system prices to continue to fall, but for module prices to stabilize (Module ASP projected to be between $0.50/W - $0.75/W by 2014 ).

    • Modeled overnight capital cost for systems quoted in Q4 2012 (expected to be installed in 2013):

    • Residential (5.1 kW) was $3.69/W, a reduction of 13% from Q4 2011

    • Commercial (222.5 kW) was $2.61/W, a reduction of 19% from Q4 2011

    • Utility-scale (192.8 MW) was $1.92/W, a reduction of 23% from Q4 2011.

    Data Sources and Methodology for Reported Installed Prices

     Derived from project-level data reported for residential, commercial, and utility-scale PV systems installed through year-end 2012, with a limited set of results presented for the first half of 2013

     Distributed PV: 47 PV incentive programs spanning 24 states provided project level installed price data for PV systems funded through current and previous programs

     Utility-scale PV: Data sourced from Section 1603 Grant Program, FERC Form 1, SEC filings, company presentations, trade press articles

     All projects for which the reported installed price was deemed likely to represent an appraised value rather than an actual transaction price were eliminated from the data sample

     Final cleaned data sample consists of >200,000 PV systems totaling 4.7 GW of installed capacity; represents approximately 65% of all grid-connected PV capacity installed in the United States through 2012 and about 50% of all 2012 capacity additions.

    Median Reported Installed Price of Residential and Commercial PV Systems over Time

    • Since 1998, installed PV system prices have fallen by 6-7% per year on average

    • From 2011 to 2012, installed prices fell by $0.88/W (14%) for systems ≤10 kW and by $0.30/W (6%) for systems >100 kW

    • By comparison, global annual average module prices fell by $0.52/W from 2011-2012.

    Preliminary Price Trends for Systems Installed in 2013: A Focus on California

    • Data from the California Solar Initiative (CSI) program show that installed prices have continued to fall into 2013

    • Median installed prices in CSI fell by roughly $0.53-0.77/W (10-15%) during the first half of 2013, relative to 2012, across the three size ranges shown.

    Variation in Installed Price by System Size: Residential and Commercial PV Systems in 2012

    • Installed prices exhibit clear economies of scale, with the median installed price for the largest commercial systems 38% lower than for the smallest residential systems (and lower installed prices for utility-scale PV, as shown on later slides)

    • Scale economies are especially pronounced at the small end of the size spectrum

    • Substantial variability in installed prices exists within each size range, reflecting regional, local, project/site-specific, and installer-specific drivers.

    Variation in Installed Price by State: Residential and Small Commercial (≤10 kW) PV in 2012..Variation in Installed Price by State: Large Commercial (>100 kW) PV Systems in 2012...

    Installed Price Data for Utility-Scale PV: Important Notes and Caveats

    • Capacity-weighted average installed price was $3.35/W for crystalline, fixed-tilt projects installed in 2012, down from $3.59/W in 2011, a 7% decline YoY

    • Capacity-weighted average installed price was $3.60/W for crystalline tracking systems and $3.23/W for thin-film, fixed-tilt systems completed in 2012

    • A wide distribution in installed prices is observed, partially reflecting variation in system size (shown on following slide) and other project characteristics.

    Installed Price of Utility-Scale PV Projects Over Time

    • Capacity-weighted average installed price was $3.35/W for crystalline, fixed-tilt projects installed in 2012, down from $3.59/W in 2011, a 7% decline YoY

    • Capacity-weighted average installed price was $3.60/W for crystalline tracking systems and $3.23/W for thin-film, fixed-tilt systems completed in 2012

    • A wide distribution in installed prices is observed, partially reflecting variation in system size (shown on following slide) and other project characteristics.

    Bottom-up Modeled Overnight Capital Cost of PV Systems by Sector, Q4 ’09 - Q4 ’12…Bottom-up Modeled Overnight Capital Cost of PV Systems by Sector, Q4 ’09 - Q4 ’12…Bottom-up Modeled Overnight Capital Cost of Utility-Scale PV Systems by Size…

    Reasons for Deviations Between Reported Price and Bottom-Up Benchmark Overnight Capital Cost

    • Price vs. cost

    • Reported pricing reflects what a customer will pay for a system (i.e., what the market will bear). A customer’s purchase price may be significantly higher than it would be elsewhere, regardless of the underlying cost to the installer, due to:

    • Higher electricity rates (e.g., CA)

    • Greater incentive programs (which may lower a customer’s upfront cash outlay, though not the price paid to the installer)

    • Barriers to entry within specific markets, etc.

    • The bottom-up benchmarks are reflective of consistent, transparent assumptions of the cost and representative margins of each subcomponent to an installer, regardless of market conditions or incentives.

    • Timing

    • Reported pricing generally reflects module and other component pricing at the time that installation contracts were signed (could precede installation date by more than a year for large projects)

    • Bottom-up benchmark costs are contemporaneous with time subcomponent pricing estimates. Q4 benchmarks are compared with the following year, but may not fully capture lag between price quote and installation date.

    • Geographic location

    • Reported price is weighted heavily toward California and New Jersey

    • Bottom-up benchmark based on national averages.

    • Project specifics

    • Projects within dataset of report pricing includes systems not currently modeled in bottom-up benchmark, such as those using high-efficiency panels, high proportion of government facilities, and relatively small utility-scale projects…

    Installed Price of Residential & Commercial PV Systems: U.S. Systems Installed in 2012 vs. German Systems Quoted in 2012…

    Median and Range of Analyst Expectations of Module Average Selling Price

    • Module prices in 2012 continued recent trend of dramatic reductions

    • Since 2008 has fallen on average 35% per year

    • Mixed forecasts on future module ASP

    • However, not expected to increase or decrease dramatically in price

    • By 2014 ASP projected to be between $0.50/W - $0.75/W

    • Major system price reductions are not expected to come from PV module price alone, as was the case in previous years.

    Analyst Estimates (2012) and Projections (2013–2014) of Global Average System Price

    • Analysts expect the system prices of both utility-scale and distributed systems to continue to fall in the near future

    • Distributed systems are expected to reach between $2/W - $4.75/W by 2014

    • Utility-scale systems are expected to reach between $1.50 - $3.15/W by 2014.

    Conclusion

    • Continued system price reductions in 2012; more expected in the near-term, despite tensions on trade issues

    • Reported system pricing fell 6-14% from 2011-2012

    • Modeled overnight capital costs fell 13-23% from Q4 2011 to Q4 2012.

    • Despite general downward trend, large variation in reported pricing within market segment in 2012

    • A difference of roughly $2/W in median installed price between the lowest- and highest-priced states for residential & commercial systems ≤10 kW, but similar variability also exists within individual states

    • Ground-mounted systems ≥2 MW ranged in price from $2/W to above $6/W.

    • Difference between reported price and bottom-up benchmark overnight capital cost for similarly segmented systems in 2012

    • Residential ($5.30/W reported price, $4.22/W bottom-up benchmark overnight capital cost); commercial ($4.62/W reported price, $3.22/W bottom-up benchmark overnight capital cost); utility-scale ($3.35/W reported price, $2.50/W bottom-up benchmark overnight capital cost)

    • Delta between reported pricing and modeled cost is due to various factors, such as inefficient pricing, timing, geographic location, and project specifics.

    0 Comments:

    Post a Comment

    << Home